Good Morning.
The Columbus Crew travel to Toyota Stadium today to take on FC Dallas. Kickoff time is 8:30 PM EST. 7:30 Central.
GAME NOTES:
CLB: Lineup likely to stay same as last 2 weeks
CLB: On GD, tied worst away form -10 in last 6
CLB: 7 losses in last 8 on the road
FCD: Only lost 1 all year at home
FCD: Lots of speed up top
FCD: In danger of dropping out of playoff hunt
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PREDICTIONS
(in no particular order)
1. WIN DRAW WIN ... FC DALLAS
Leaning pretty heavy here at this aggregate betting site. Wise guys taking stake in a 3-0 Home win and only voting for the Crew 15% on the pretty accurate 'your vote' section.
2. COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... NO LEAN
Adam Jardy, beat writer here in town, doesn't appear to lean either way. Again mentions win makes hopes of making the playoffs more realistic.
3. MLSSOCCER.COM ... FC DALLAS
Four of the six folks on the MLS panel like Dallas. Only one picking Crew to win (Andrew Wiebe, the arch nemesis to any thinking analyst)
4. HOME TEAM ... FC DALLAS
5. WHOSCORED.COM ... DRAW
Graham Ruthven actually gives fans a glimpse of what this game might look like as far as play (a rarity in MLS); "A compact, yet eagerly contested game is expected between these two sides. A draw could be on the cards."
6. WV HOOLIGAN ... FC DALLAS
Drew Epperley (Big D Soccer on SB Nation as well has WVHooligan.com) like Dallas to win this one 2-1. "Columbus has been better under Brian Bliss but I’d argue that they haven’t seen a team that has the speed that Dallas has up front."
7. BET365 ... FC DALLAS
Dallas is basically even (10/11) with a draw next (12/5). Crew getting 3/1 odds in this one.
8. MASSIVE REPORT ... DRAW
Managing editor, Patrick Guldan is sure to mention David Ferreira, saying that he "is Dallas's biggest creative force. Clamping down on him will choke the home team's offense." Patrick thinks this will go down as a 1-1 draw.
9. TABLE POSITION ... FC DALLAS
10. GOAL.COM ... COLUMBUS CREW
Ives Galarcep again with the summary for this one saying "Standing in the Crew's way is an FC Dallas side that is heading in the opposite direction. Consecutive losses, both courtesy of own goals, have put a halt to a promising turnaround for Dallas, which has managed just two wins in 16 matches." I'm going to go ahead and put the Crew down for this one, even though Ives doesn't really lean. The reader pick shows Dallas.
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MY THOUGHTS, PREDICTION
There are precisely two MLS teams that have positive goal difference away from home this year. Just like last week when Chicago traveled to Columbus and got whooped 3-0 it's going to be a tall order for the Crew to get all three points this week down in Texas.
The Crew do have a couple things going for them, however.
1. Team has some pep in the step under Brian Bliss
2. Dallas struggling to win home or away
Dallas is clearly the favorite today but those two things point to a closer match than many might think.
Josh Williams and Andy Gruenebaum, who have been recovering from injury, are probably sitting this one out. Bliss, like Warzycha before him, likes to keep the lineup the same if the team is winning.
I have problems with this. Biggest one is that this philosophy has failed the Crew over the past two years. They have only been able to string a couple wins together two times this year doing this.
You have to plan for each opponent differently. For example. The Crew aren't good on the road. A lot of that has to do with Matt Lampson and his inexperience on the road.
Goals given up with Lampson as starter:
3 : at Houston
4 : at Salt Lake
3 : at Kansas City
1 : at Montreal
That's 11 goals allowed in his last four away starts. I realize this is a team thing but Lampson has looked like a completely different person home vs away. A Gruenebaum start here, even though he has been out for an extended period, might not be a bad idea if he is ready to go. Gruenebaum's motivation will be through the roof.
Despite not getting the results they might like, Dallas has lit up the scoreboard in last three at home (8 goals in last 3). They will be extremely hungry to get goals vs the Crew.
Bliss could take advantage of that if so inclined.
Dallas is fast. Dallas can be frustrating. Dallas is hard to beat at home. This one could have some fireworks in it if the crowd gets in to it (if they are even there, Cowboys playing late afternoon game).
Looks like temps will be in the mid 80s. Enjoy the game.
Sunday, September 29, 2013
Thursday, September 26, 2013
MR Post: Top MLS Players 21 and Under
What makes it a little different than my earlier post on the topic is that I used WhoScored.com and Castrol Index player ratings along with mine as a guide to find the best young players in the league.
I think it worked out well. Of the around 90 players in MLS 21 and under I see about 30 that play regularly and another 15 or so that bounce between ‘reserves’ and gameday 18s.
I’ll keep an eye on these players over the course of the next 12-18 months (2-3 international transfer windows) and see how many move on to better leagues. I’m guessing guys like Rosell, Fagundez, Jean-Baptiste, Torres and maybe Gil and the like will be moving on in that time.
One guy I really like at the moment is Soony Saad. Not just because he is a decent player but he’s also got a good body type. One of the more noticeable differences I see between foreign leagues and MLS is player body types. It’s extremely noticeable in person.
A couple years ago I saw Stoke take on the Crew and was shocked at the size difference. Not just height but thickness. Same thing when Wigan came to town this year. It’s like there is another 2” layer of thickness all around on players in Europe (that's Eddie Gaven on the ground in my illustration).Anyhow, other guys like Yedlin, Rowe, McInerney, Farrell, Villarreal and Kitchen might become MLS stalwarts in years to come.
Wednesday, September 25, 2013
Sunday, September 22, 2013
Crew Rd 30, Take Advantage - Win
The Columbus Crew scored a goal then went up a man early in this one. Come away with a three goal win.
1ST HALF
Very energetic open to this game as both sides seemed impatient. This opened up acres for the Crew on the wings, particularly on the right side.
By only the 11th minute Dominic Oduro found himself some space ripped one past Chicago's GK Sean Johnson. Good one touch from Federico Higuain and Jairo Arrieta on working the ball over to him.
A little over 10 minutes later Arrieta (again finding space) was chopped down by Bakary Soumare with clear path to the goal. It earned him a straight red.
While the rest of the half saw both teams trying to figure out how to play a man up and a man down there was a couple non-calls in the box that went against Chicago.
One was Tony Tchani pulling down Jeff Larentowicz and another was an odd moment were a 2nd ball was on the pitch, the ref went over to get it but let play go on while a Fire player was knocked down from behind on his way to goal.
2ND HALF
With some time to put together a plan both teams contributed to turning this game back into something a little more organized. But Chicago was still giving up way too much space for both Arrieta and Oduro's speed.
In the 70th minute Arrieta got behind the back line and forced a play from GK Johnson where promptly maded contact with the player. Higuain walked up and put away the penalty.
A few minutes later Tony Tchani placed a beautiful ball to Bernardo Anor and put the home side up 3-0.
------------------------
GAME OVER
The Crew have played a few games like this one this year were they go up early on ejection. At home fans have seen it with Portland and Seattle. In both cases the Crew looked a little lost for whatever reason.
Yesterday was a little different in that they kept the intensity up. Chicago had their chances that they probably shouldn't have though. They caught the woodwork twice and got off a couple long distance efforts (they ended up getting more shots off than the Crew).
I think Chicago will regret this one badly but it's hard not to feel for them a little because of the wildly inconsistent (and sometimes down right bizarre) officiating.
Whenever I see a game with a bad official I always look for the longtime MLS guys on the team getting shafted. Last night it was Mike Magee. His facial expressions and body language said it all.
Sorry Mike.
Tough to take much out of this game outside the fact that the Crew are winning at home again. Bakary Soumare and some questionable officiating threw a wet blanket on this one.
========================
Some Crew observations:
• Bliss seems to have repaired some of the Robert Warzycha inflicted emotional damage to Chad Marshall. Ever since Bliss praised him a few weeks ago (going as far as saying he is National Team quality) Marshall is another player.
• Speaking of Warzychas... Konrad Warzycha was not in the 18 for the 2nd round in a row. Since week 8 Konrad has only missed 3 total gameday 18s. The only other one was his father's last game (rd 26 vs Seattle).
• Speas appearance was his first in about a month. Only his 2nd in last 10 games. Bliss said he has been 'mired in a little bit of mediocrity' in a recent interview with the Columbus Dispatch, citing his recent wedding as a possible cause.
• These Bliss comments don't do anything to shake his jock persona. He needs to get away from a former player that is a coach and work towards being a Manager. This is something better teams look for.
• Crew still leading MLS in penalties taken with 9. LA is 2nd with 8 then everybody else is way down the list. I find this strange but very similar to 2011.
• Just like in 2011, Red Cards and penalties are hiding some problems that need addressed.
• Bernardo Anor had a quiet but effective game.
• WhoScored.com listed Tony Tchani as man of the match. He's another one that is thriving under new leadership.
• Crew remain in 8th place after this win. Next week they travel to Dallas to play an out of conference game.
1ST HALF
Very energetic open to this game as both sides seemed impatient. This opened up acres for the Crew on the wings, particularly on the right side.
By only the 11th minute Dominic Oduro found himself some space ripped one past Chicago's GK Sean Johnson. Good one touch from Federico Higuain and Jairo Arrieta on working the ball over to him.
A little over 10 minutes later Arrieta (again finding space) was chopped down by Bakary Soumare with clear path to the goal. It earned him a straight red.
While the rest of the half saw both teams trying to figure out how to play a man up and a man down there was a couple non-calls in the box that went against Chicago.
One was Tony Tchani pulling down Jeff Larentowicz and another was an odd moment were a 2nd ball was on the pitch, the ref went over to get it but let play go on while a Fire player was knocked down from behind on his way to goal.
2ND HALF
With some time to put together a plan both teams contributed to turning this game back into something a little more organized. But Chicago was still giving up way too much space for both Arrieta and Oduro's speed.
In the 70th minute Arrieta got behind the back line and forced a play from GK Johnson where promptly maded contact with the player. Higuain walked up and put away the penalty.
A few minutes later Tony Tchani placed a beautiful ball to Bernardo Anor and put the home side up 3-0.
------------------------
GAME OVER
The Crew have played a few games like this one this year were they go up early on ejection. At home fans have seen it with Portland and Seattle. In both cases the Crew looked a little lost for whatever reason.
Yesterday was a little different in that they kept the intensity up. Chicago had their chances that they probably shouldn't have though. They caught the woodwork twice and got off a couple long distance efforts (they ended up getting more shots off than the Crew).
I think Chicago will regret this one badly but it's hard not to feel for them a little because of the wildly inconsistent (and sometimes down right bizarre) officiating.
Whenever I see a game with a bad official I always look for the longtime MLS guys on the team getting shafted. Last night it was Mike Magee. His facial expressions and body language said it all.
Sorry Mike.
Tough to take much out of this game outside the fact that the Crew are winning at home again. Bakary Soumare and some questionable officiating threw a wet blanket on this one.
========================
Some Crew observations:
• Bliss seems to have repaired some of the Robert Warzycha inflicted emotional damage to Chad Marshall. Ever since Bliss praised him a few weeks ago (going as far as saying he is National Team quality) Marshall is another player.
• Speaking of Warzychas... Konrad Warzycha was not in the 18 for the 2nd round in a row. Since week 8 Konrad has only missed 3 total gameday 18s. The only other one was his father's last game (rd 26 vs Seattle).
• Speas appearance was his first in about a month. Only his 2nd in last 10 games. Bliss said he has been 'mired in a little bit of mediocrity' in a recent interview with the Columbus Dispatch, citing his recent wedding as a possible cause.
• These Bliss comments don't do anything to shake his jock persona. He needs to get away from a former player that is a coach and work towards being a Manager. This is something better teams look for.
• Crew still leading MLS in penalties taken with 9. LA is 2nd with 8 then everybody else is way down the list. I find this strange but very similar to 2011.
• Just like in 2011, Red Cards and penalties are hiding some problems that need addressed.
• Bernardo Anor had a quiet but effective game.
• WhoScored.com listed Tony Tchani as man of the match. He's another one that is thriving under new leadership.
• Crew remain in 8th place after this win. Next week they travel to Dallas to play an out of conference game.
Saturday, September 21, 2013
Predictions: Crew (H) v Fire
The Columbus Crew host the Chicago Fire today. Scheduled start is 7:30 PM EST (6:30 Central). Looks like temps will be high 60s and the field a little damp by the time this one kicks off.
GAME NOTES
CLB: Won 4 of last 6 at home
CLB: Low scoring, 7 GF only 3 GA in last 6
CLB: Lineup should match last week
CHI: 5 pts from last 6 on the road
CHI: Sit in 5th playoff spot
CHI: Have been Crew 3x already this year (2 MLS, 1 USOC)
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PREDICTIONS
(in no particular order)
1. WV HOOLIGAN ... DRAW
"I think a draw seems most fitting with these two squads with the way they’re both playing at the moment," says Drew Epperley. One all by the end.
2. WIN DRAW WIN ... CREW
The sports betting aggregate site likes the Crew this week. We've got a 1-0 Home Stake and a 'Your Vote' pick leaning Columbus (46%) but followed closely by a Draw (37%).
3. TABLE POSITION ... FIRE
4. MASSIVE REPORT ... CREW
Patrick Guldan believes that, "The first goal will be a little more important as the Crew will have to chase the game if they fall behind." He see's this as a 1-0 Crew victory.
5. GOAL.COM ... FIRE (EVEN)
For the first time this year we get Ives Galarcep writing up the summary. He doesn't outright pick the Fire but he does spend most of the time talking them up. "...Chicago will try to have Arevalo-Rios and Jeff Larentowicz limit Higuain's touches and space. The Fire also have the players to neutralize the Crew's set-piece threat." He also mentions that Mike Magee is having an MVP like year. On the 'reader picks' portion we see a draw.
6. BET365 ... CREW
This is more of a 'lean' toward the Home team this week, which is what is reflected over at Win Draw Win. 7/5 Crew, 9/4 Draw and 19/10 Chicago. Most likely result is 1-1 (X).
7. HOME TEAM ... CREW
8. MLSSOCCER.COM ... DRAW
Even here with three on the Pick 'Em panel going draw, two Fire and one Crew (most accurate man, Matt Doyle).
9. WHOSCORED.COM ... DRAW
Graham Ruthven likes this a 1-1 as well, saying; "The Fire should be motivated as they arrive at Crew Stadium, but the hosts' front three can trouble any team in MLS."
10. COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... CREW
Man on the beat Adam Jardy thinks the "Crew is due" against Chicago based on previous results not quite bouncing the Crew way.
----------
MY THOUGHTS ON THE GAME
It's been a long, long journey for the Chicago Fire to get to this point in the 5th and final playoff spot. They were practically left for dead after only the first couple months of the season.
In fact, it was probably the ugly win the got against a visiting Crew back late April that finally got their season going the right way.
With these teams meeting so many times this year (4 if you count the reserve match) you have to figure we won't see much different out there today. That is: a choppy midfield scrum.
Chicago knows full well that Federico Higuain is the key to this team getting goals.
1. Set pieces (the Crew lifeblood this year, which the Fire has the height to defend)
2. Higuain's movement in the middle (where the Fire know how to jam it up).
It's these two simple things that the Fire do well that has beaten the 2013 Crew.
It would be impressive if Brian Bliss pulls Dominic Oduro out of the midfield and places a competent mid player in his spot. That would help free things up a little bit but I fully expect that this weeks lineup will be the same as last.
Fire probably know that as well. In fact, all Crew opposition know that pattern which is why the Crew have only won back to back games once this year.
Should be a great atmosphere at Crew Stadium tonight. Enjoy the game.
GAME NOTES
CLB: Won 4 of last 6 at home
CLB: Low scoring, 7 GF only 3 GA in last 6
CLB: Lineup should match last week
CHI: 5 pts from last 6 on the road
CHI: Sit in 5th playoff spot
CHI: Have been Crew 3x already this year (2 MLS, 1 USOC)
----------
PREDICTIONS
(in no particular order)
1. WV HOOLIGAN ... DRAW
"I think a draw seems most fitting with these two squads with the way they’re both playing at the moment," says Drew Epperley. One all by the end.
2. WIN DRAW WIN ... CREW
The sports betting aggregate site likes the Crew this week. We've got a 1-0 Home Stake and a 'Your Vote' pick leaning Columbus (46%) but followed closely by a Draw (37%).
3. TABLE POSITION ... FIRE
4. MASSIVE REPORT ... CREW
Patrick Guldan believes that, "The first goal will be a little more important as the Crew will have to chase the game if they fall behind." He see's this as a 1-0 Crew victory.
5. GOAL.COM ... FIRE (EVEN)
For the first time this year we get Ives Galarcep writing up the summary. He doesn't outright pick the Fire but he does spend most of the time talking them up. "...Chicago will try to have Arevalo-Rios and Jeff Larentowicz limit Higuain's touches and space. The Fire also have the players to neutralize the Crew's set-piece threat." He also mentions that Mike Magee is having an MVP like year. On the 'reader picks' portion we see a draw.
6. BET365 ... CREW
This is more of a 'lean' toward the Home team this week, which is what is reflected over at Win Draw Win. 7/5 Crew, 9/4 Draw and 19/10 Chicago. Most likely result is 1-1 (X).
7. HOME TEAM ... CREW
8. MLSSOCCER.COM ... DRAW
Even here with three on the Pick 'Em panel going draw, two Fire and one Crew (most accurate man, Matt Doyle).
9. WHOSCORED.COM ... DRAW
Graham Ruthven likes this a 1-1 as well, saying; "The Fire should be motivated as they arrive at Crew Stadium, but the hosts' front three can trouble any team in MLS."
10. COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... CREW
Man on the beat Adam Jardy thinks the "Crew is due" against Chicago based on previous results not quite bouncing the Crew way.
----------
MY THOUGHTS ON THE GAME
It's been a long, long journey for the Chicago Fire to get to this point in the 5th and final playoff spot. They were practically left for dead after only the first couple months of the season.
In fact, it was probably the ugly win the got against a visiting Crew back late April that finally got their season going the right way.
With these teams meeting so many times this year (4 if you count the reserve match) you have to figure we won't see much different out there today. That is: a choppy midfield scrum.
Chicago knows full well that Federico Higuain is the key to this team getting goals.
1. Set pieces (the Crew lifeblood this year, which the Fire has the height to defend)
2. Higuain's movement in the middle (where the Fire know how to jam it up).
It's these two simple things that the Fire do well that has beaten the 2013 Crew.
It would be impressive if Brian Bliss pulls Dominic Oduro out of the midfield and places a competent mid player in his spot. That would help free things up a little bit but I fully expect that this weeks lineup will be the same as last.
Fire probably know that as well. In fact, all Crew opposition know that pattern which is why the Crew have only won back to back games once this year.
Should be a great atmosphere at Crew Stadium tonight. Enjoy the game.
Friday, September 20, 2013
MLS Top 21, 21 and Under
It's not.
24 is more a player entering into their prime. To drive the point home here in town for Crew fans, it wasn't that many weeks ago that Adam Jardy of the Columbus Dispatch caught Federico Higuain commenting on Wil Trapp's age:
“I don’t necessarily consider him to be that young,” Higuain said last week through an interpreter. “Young in other countries means 16, 17 years old. I consider him to be a mature kid at this stage. As far as his qualities go, he’s very talented and he brings a lot to this team.”
What a great quote from Higuain. Nothing wrong with a list like MLSsoccer.com put together, but call a spade a spade. It's basically a list of foreign transfer target players, whether the editors of MLSsoccer.com know that or not is irrelevant.
----------
Since I track such things, here is my 21 MLS player 21 and under in Major League Soccer based on my own player rating model.
1. Oriol Rosell (KC) MF : 1.83m, 76kg : Spain
2. DeAndre Yedlin (SEA) MF : 1.73m, 68kg : Washington
3. Andrew Jean-Baptiste (PDX) MF : 1.88m, 93kg : New York
4. Jack McInerney (PHI) F : 1.73m, 70kg : Georgia
5. Andrew Farrell (NE) MF : 1.80m, 75kg : Kentucky
6. Luis Gil (RSL) MF : 1.73m, 70kg : California
7. Russell Teibert (VAN) MF : 1.70m, 66kg : Canada
8. Shane O'Neill (COL) MF : 1.88m, 86kg : Ireland
9. Fabian Castillo (DAL) F : 1.73m, 68kg : Colombia
10. Soony Saad (KC) F : 1.78m, 75kg : Michigan
11. Olmes Garcia (RSL) F : 1.83m, 79kg : Colombia
12. Jonathan Osorio (TOR) MF : 1.75m, 72.57kg : Canada
13. Jose Villarreal (LA) MF : 1.70m, 75kg : California
14. Carlos Salcedo (RSL) MF : 1.85m, 77kg : Mexico
15. Juan Agudelo (NE) F : 1.83m, 82kg : Colombia
16. Doneil Henry (TOR) MF : 1.88m, 82kg : Canada
17. Marco Delgado (GOATS) MF : 1.75m, 66kg : California
18. Wil Trapp (CREW) MF : 1.73m, 68kg : Ohio
19. Erick Torres (GOATS) F : 1.83m, 72kg : Mexico
20. Jose Correa (GOATS) F : 1.85m, 86kg : Colombia
21. Jack McBean (LA) F : 1.83m, 78kg : California
For Crew fans, it's nice to see Trapp on this list. But consider the difference between Sporting Kansas City's Barcelona La Masia graduate and him.
Pretty proud of my list. Lots of good players here. Thinking most will be snatched up by teams with deeper pockets soon.
Thursday, September 19, 2013
Humbling River, Grand Theft Almost
After a couple days of playing around I'm about to work into the meat of Grand Theft Auto 5. Great fun and I'm sure I'll enjoy every minute of it, and all its irreverent fun... but I can already tell that it really just makes me yearn for the absolute majesty that was Red Dead Redemption.
Sunday, September 15, 2013
MR Post, Ghost Results
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