Predictions: Crew (H) v Sounders

A star studded Seattle Sounders team is in Columbus this evening and taking on the hometown Crew up at the fairgrounds (off I-71. You can't miss it, there is a huge billboard with Clint Dempsey's picture on the side). Kickoff is at 7:30 PM EST, 4:30 PM Cascadia time.

GAME NOTES:
-CLB: Higuian out next 2
-CLB: Ryan Finley expected to start
-CLB: Lost last week 4-0 away to RSL
-SEA: Only 1 quality road win this year (5-15 SKC)
-SEA: 6 Red Cards in 12 away fixtures
-SEA: Important match, need wins to keep playoff pace

PREDICTIONS:
(in no particular order)

1. WINDRAWWIN.COM ... SOUNDERS
Reporting an Away 0-1 win and the accurate predictor 'your votes' section shows 45% Seattle (24% Crew).

2. WHOSCORED.COM ... SOUNDERS
Adding in a new one this week with WhoScored.com. They have all the data and he has all the data wins, after all. They like Seattle today 2-1 over the Crew.

3. MASSIVE REPORT ... SOUNDERS
Patrick Guldan, the Editor and Chief of the site I contribute, thinks Seattle has the upper hand today, "Seattle is starting to find their stride and the Crew are nearly to the point were only pride is on the line." Go check out his preview.

4. MLSSOCCER.COM ... SOUNDERS
We've got 5 of the 6 picking Seattle with the other picking a Draw. Matt Doyle still leads the bunch with nearly 50% (116/239) accuracy. That's pretty remarkable actually.

5. GOAL.COM ... NO LEAN, EVEN
Thomas Floyd is on the call for this preview and once again the Crew get a short write up. Floyd doesn't show a lean either way today, "Clint Dempsey will look for his first goal in a Sounders uniform as Seattle travels to face a Crew side without Federico Higuain." However, the prediction poll does lean Seattle.

6. BET365 ... EVEN
We've got both the Crew and Sounders at 13/8 odds (23/10 draw) here today. Most likely scoreline is 1-1.

7. HOME TEAM ... CREW

8. TABLE POSITION ... SOUNDERS

9. WVHOOLIGAN.COM ... SOUNDERS
"...with Columbus missing Federico Higuain in this one, I just don’t see them staying with the Sounders," say's league watcher Drew Epperley. Score prediction? 2-1 Seattle.

10. COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... SOUNDERS (LEAN)
Last up on the list today, but certainly not least, is team beat writer Adam Jardy's thoughts... "These teams appear to be headed in decidedly different directions."

MY THOUGHTS:

Rouge Fire Hydrant (pic @AdamJardy)

Crew fans will finally get to see how the team plays without Federico Higuain. Personally, I think there will not be too much change. Nothing to do with Higuain's quality as a player (he's one of the best in North America) and more to do with how the Crew are set up tactically.

Seattle hasn't been all that great on the road this year and it is hard to expect much different until they prove different. They do have that notable recent event of Clint Dempsey signing up as well as Clint playing again at Crew Stadium on September 10th.

A motivated Dempsey is an extremely dangerous Dempsey. Chad Marshall and Josh Williams will have their hands full today (in the understatement of the year).

With Higuain out, many are expecting college draft pick and scorer of 8 goals in the reserves Ryan Finley to get the nod. I gotta admit, I am excited about this idea.

Finley knows his way around the 18 yard box and has scored tons of goals at all levels in this country. Now it's time to see if he can do it on the MLS level.

Seattle are the clear favorites and they have the talent to completely over run the Crew in the midfield. Can the Crew pull out a huge upset in front of a packed house? Should be a fun watch.

Enjoy the game.

Chad Marshall, 2013

MLS Ladder

Here's a look MLS teams on the MLS table by PPG. I've separated by just 0.05 of a point to illustrate how close teams are this year.

People like to argue over whether this is parity or mediocrity at work. I think it is more a function of a summer league with a playoff system where teams do only what they have to during a World Cup Qualifying year.

Coach Trapp

This is something you don't normally hear from a Crew player. It comes from young Wil Trapp over at thecrew.com site:

“[Barson] and I were talking, and [the RSL match] was kind of like playing Akron,” Trapp said. “When we were at Akron, that’s what we did to other teams, and to have it done to you is pretty frustrating… I think that’s something here that we could definitely implement a little more [in Columbus]. Just a little more off the ball movement and trying to get guys freed up in good spots.”

You've got to think that other players know this and say it but it never gets printed (reported). Trapp is spot on. The Crew have been overrun by better midfields for the past three years.

Warzycha tries to echo what Trapp said but clearly doesn't understand it is the philosophy the opponent took more than the talent.

“I think he can see what he has to do better,” he said. “He’s going to learn, and the next time he plays these guys he’s going to know what to expect. The next time we go on the field, he knows that the way we played last time wasn’t right.”

As normal, the coach is singling out an individual and not the chosen tactics. "He" needs to do better. "He" didn't play 'right'.

I'm hoping Trapp and others talk more like this. Crew have the talent to be competitive but are stuck with the wrong playing style.

Looking north east from 'round about Lindey's. German Village in Columbus, Ohio.

Crew Rd 25, Pinned Down and Beaten

The Columbus Crew could do nothing to stop Real Salt Lake last night.

1ST HALF
Crew Head Coach Robert Warzycha came out in what was his primary and preferred dual defensive mid lineup last night in clear attempt to get at least a point. Danny O'Rourke and Wil Trapp will given the unfortunate task there.

On the RSL side we save Jason Kreis come out with is somewhat familiar diamond midfield with Kyle Beckerman at CDM and both Devon Sandoval and Olmes Garcia up top.

With two CDM's clogging the middle RSL found it very easy to get wide and retain possession all through the first half. RSL was getting corner after corner and free kicks around the box with ease.

The only thing the Crew were successful at was keeping RSL out of the goal. That is until the first one came right at the end of the first half.

Chad Marshall gave up a free kick via handball right outside the 18 yd box. Kyle Beckerman took the shot that deflected off Wil Trapp (lined up in the wall) then took a second deflection off Javier Morales for a goal. Crew defender Chad Barson was lined up behind Morales.

2ND HALF
No changes from the Crew meant the onslaught continued. The inevitable goal that fans on both sides saw coming from miles away happened off an easy cross and goal right in front of GK Matt Lampson.

Even up by two, RSL kept pressing Columbus. Even going as far as making a offensive minded substitution around the hour mark by bring in Robbie Findley (six goals on the year).

Warzycha appeared to be caught off guard and completely over reacted by bringing on not one but TWO fresh holding midfielders in his son Konrad Warzycha and a out of form Tony Tchani.

The changes changed nothing. RSL ended up scoring two more goals from the run of play in the last 10 minutes.

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GAME THOUGHTS

Yesterday, in my game preview, I said the Crew would go back into their shell. They did. I also said that doing so would jam up Federico Higuain. It did.

Ever been in a fight and been pinned down or held by another as punches came your way? If I can predict these simple minded tactics then sure as hell Jason Kreis can - and he did. What RSL did was the equivalent of sitting of the chest of the Crew, knees on their shoulders pinning the arms down and pounding the ever-living daylights out of them.

Shortly before the game started the Crew Digital Content Producer tweeted out the following: "FOUR... Count them, FOUR Homegrowns in the XI for #Crew96 tonight: Lampson, Barson, Trapp, Speas."

In a game like this, where you are playing one of the three best teams in the league - at their place - when they are at full strength... you take your warriors. Your fighters. Not four inexperienced local kids with little to no league experience on the road.

The Crew have now lost six straight on the road. Goes without saying, but worst in the league.

By the end of the match you saw some (the fighters) on the Crew visibly frustrated. Dominic Oduro on a late tackle, Josh Williams should barging a player 10 feet out of bounds and Higuain just playing coming unglued (and picking up two more yellow cards, suspending him for at least one game).

Inexperienced players making up half the starting lineup and employing a tactic that has not worked all year.

I don't get it. I really don't.

Predictions: Crew (A) v RSL

Good Morning,

The Crew play away to Real Salt Lake today. Kickoff is at 9:30 PM EST, 7:30 MDT.

GAME NOTES:
-CLB: Lost 5 straight on the road
-CLB: Worst 6 game road form in MLS
-CLB: Anor, Meram Out (starters in last 2 wins)
-RSL: 4-1-1 +7 GD in last 6
-RSL: Rimando, Beckerman, Saborio should be in lineup
-RSL: Only two loses at Rio Tinto this year.

GAME PREDICTIONS
(In no particular order)

1. WV HOOLIGAN ... RSL
"RSL looks to get back on track here as they pursue the Supporters’ Shield trophy". Drew Epperley's prediction: RSL 3, Columbus 1.

2. BET365 ... RSL
Strong odds for Real Salt Lake today at 3/5 (Draw 14/5, Crew 19/4).

3. COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... (lean) RSL
The tone of Adam Jardy's "How it might play out" summary certainly suggests that RSL is the team to beat tonight but he does mention the fact that RSL have played three games in seven days. Pick up a paper if you are in town. If you are out of town? Good luck on navigating this paper's website.

4. TABLE ... RSL

5. HOME TEAM ... RSL

6. MLSSOCCER.COM ... RSL
Real Salt Lake across the board. "Armchair Analyst" Matt Doyle still leading the way over there (111 of 230 correct, picking result).

7. GOAL.COM ... CREW
Surprising one line summary from regular Keith Hickey today... "RSL will have to overcome history and the hot foot of Federico Higuain to stay comfortable in first place." On top of that and for the first time all year there is a actual preview write up of the match. Reader prediction has RSL 68%.

8. WINDRAWWIN.COM ... RSL
Large Stake on Home Win, 2-0 and the 'your votes' section is heavy RSL (56%). Crew only getting 12% of the vote.

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MY GAME THOUGHTS

Can't stop looking at this pic.

Despite recent success at Rio Tinto, it's gonna be a tough one for the Crew tonight. Not having Bernardo Anor in the lineup (fatigue) is likely going to force Robert Warzycha back into his two holding mid shell.

If that's the case then Federico Higuain (scorer of all four goals in last two wins) will go back to being jammed up and chasing the game.

Real Salt Lake is a good team this year. A very good team. And they will be hungry tonight to stay in the race for 1st place in the league now that we are in the home stretch.

Personally, I really, really which Anor was in this lineup and the Crew were facing them as an in form side because a win would sell me on how good this team can (could've) be (been).

Later start tonight allows me some time to catch afternoon show of "The World's End". Pretty excited about that.

Enjoy the game.

KRAMB Score, Updated (surprises)

It's been a few games since I've posted updated KRAMB for Crew players (Pts Earned per Start above replacement level* + Goal Difference per Start) and boy are there some changes.

Justin Meram has crossed the magical five game barrier and has found himself on top of the team. Six total starts. Three wins, two draws and only one loss. I'd be lying if I said I saw this one coming.

Last year Meram was a 'super-sub' of sorts (+7 goal diff) with a bad starting record (won't go there). I'd also be remiss if I didn't mention that two of the three wins he has this year have been against Toronto. But then... A win and draw against NY plus another draw against the Dynamo? I'll say; well earned overall.

Here we go.

KRAMB : NAME (NUMBER OF STARTS)

+0.79 : Justin Meram (6)
+0.71 : Agustín Viana (12)
+0.69 : Eddie Gaven (10)
+0.29 : Wil Trapp (6)
+0.25 : Dominic Oduro (24)
+0.19 : Bernardo Anor (10)
+0.15 : Joshua Williams (22)
+0.04 : Chad Marshall (20)
+0.02 : Gláuber Berti (13)

-0.01 : Chad Barson (10)
-0.13 : Federico Higuaín (24)
-0.15 : Danny O´Rourke (17)
-0.21 : Jairo Obando Arrieta (13)
-0.32 : Ben Speas (9)
-0.34 : Tyson Wahl (16)
-0.35 : Tony Tchani (7)
-0.41 : Andy Gruenebaum (20)
-0.91 : Matías Sánchez (10)

NOT ENOUGH GAMES (<5)

+1.79 : Matt Lampson (4)
+0.79 : Aaron Schoenfeld (2)
-0.21 : Konrad Warzycha (2)
-0.46 : Eric Gehrig (4)
-1.54 : Kevan George (3)

Other changes that are driving KRAMB change are Matt Lampson starting. The results he has gotten as starter have pulled Gruenebaum way down the list.

However.

Lampson is a little untested. He is a local kid about to be thrown into the fire out west against Real Salt Lake. Three of his four starts have been close to home. The one away match he has had was a disaster against Houston. Well see how things go in SLC.

Another player driving results in regards to this measurement is Wil Trapp. Some of the folks I know closest to the club say he is the real deal. Like Lampson, he is getting the results near home. Notable is the loss he started away in Toronto and in Houston. All three of his wins (Portland, New York and Toronto) have been in Columbus.

Agustin Viana's return the lineup, while understated, is probably the most reliable indicator of a individual player contributing to recent team performance. Having him healthy and starting at a critical Left Back spot has certainly helped the team.

All I got for now. Remember: numbers don't lie. Trust the numbers. Also... understand what it is you are looking at.

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*Replacement level is what a average player on the team will theoretically give you, team average (0.00).

2 New MR Posts, Notes

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1. FIVE 2013 CREW MISTAKES

This one started off as a sort of running postmortem commentary on the season I wanted to get out of my head. It's been both a fascinating and disappointing season for the Columbus Crew.

Focusing on mistakes is only part of a postmortem assessment but it is the most important. A critical assessment of performance, no matter what, is vital to success. For the past 36 months the Columbus Crew have had their head buried in the sand and that is playing out in results.

It's also resulted in the hasty sale of this MLS Franchise to an outsider. Most telling thing to me so far? I get excited and can't wait to crack open a $60 dollar video game. Anthony Precourt bought the team for $68 million... And how much time has he spent in Columbus? How many games has he been to?

Always, always, always look at mistakes as a way to get better.

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2. CREW PLAYER RATINGS, WHOSCORED.COM

One of these days I'll get Massive Report's Patrick Guldan to start doing his player ratings again. Until then, all I have is what the folks at WhoScored.com put together.

I decided to summarize them in box plot form because I like to look at consistency of performance. Overall, for the sport of soccer, I think it is important. For Major League Soccer teams? You can't live without it.

One of the things I liked about Chris Anderson and David Sally's book "The Numbers Game" is when they talk on improving the weakest link as vital. In MLS, improving your weakest spot is probably the most important things because of the scarcity of top talent (self inflicted by MLS with Designated player rules and team 'budgets').

Using rating systems like WhoScored.com gives fans a good starting point for determining which players are doing well and which are not. What's great about the site beyond the ratings is the fact that they also have all the Opta data.

Anyhow, go give 'em a read.