2013 Crew: Doomed to be Average

Ain't no man can avoid being born average, but there ain't no man got to be common. - Satchel Paige

Looking at the past two years there is clear evidence to support exhausting all resources to keep as many players together as possible. This is of course challenging as Major League Soccer salary cap restrictions work against consistency.

Back in October I took a look at roster turnover on each club. What I found was that successful teams in 2012 retained players from their 2011 roster. It's not just a case of good teams keeping good players, either. San Jose topped the league this year after being a bottom feeder in 2011. You would've thought that they flipped their roster to improve this year, instead it's just the opposite. They had the 3rd highest player retention rate in the league. 60% of the Earthquake players that saw minutes in 2012 also saw time in 2011.

The team retaining the most talent from 2011 to 2012? MLS Cup co-participant, Houston Dynamo (67%).

What I've found is that retaining and playing >54% of the same players year over year greatly increases success in the league.

MEDIAN YOY PLAYER RETENTION
54% : Top Half of Table (53% AVG)
45% : Bottom Half of Table (43% AVG)

• Only three teams in the top nine were under 50% retention (NY, CHI, SEA).

• Only ONE team in the bottom half was above 50% (FCD)

The dust hasn't settled on the Crew offseason yet but right now, at best, the Crew have retained 15 players for the 2013 season that were on the team at the start of 2012. 50% puts them right in the middle of the table. If I subtract Aaron Horton due to him not seeing a minute of MLS time (in keeping with October post) the Crew drop to 47% retention. Removing Ben Speas' appearance in the last game takes the club down to 43%.

Unless you have one of the best players in a generation on your team you will likely be out of the playoff with a 43% retention rate of players seeing time in both last year and this year.

Has the Crew already relegated themselves to the middle of the 2013 table? My honest answer to that is "yes". Of course there is still a lot of time between now and the end of next year and there could possibly be re-signings (recommended).

CAVEAT: If I've learned anything in this league it's that MLS likes to tinker and that opens the door for crazy. That said; No expansion team this year should allow teams to keep more players together thus (fingers crossed) improve the overall quality of play in the league.

MLS RULES

MLS changes and modifies rules constantly. There seems to be a strong movement to build "Homegrown Talent" with some of the clubs right now. Brian Bliss and company have really grabbed hold of this trend (see more at Top Drawer Soccer) and this year seems to be shaping up as the YEAR OF THE HOMEGROWN (Trapp, Weit and Barson for the Crew). Some of the cuts this year might be in anticipation of a trio of local players joining the club.

Anyhow.
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Here is the list of % players retained by club and listed by rank (descending 1-19) on the final 2012 MLS table.

60% : San Jose
60% : Sporting KC
54% : D.C.
30% : New York
61% : Real Salt Lake
44% : Chicago
48% : Seattle
50% : Los Angeles
67% : Houston
46% : Columbus
45% : Vancouver
- : Montreal
59% : FC Dallas
45% : Colorado
38% : Philadelphia
39% : New England
45% : Portland
28% : Chivas USA
48% : Toronto FC

One of the first things I'll be doing when predicting table in February is comparing rosters year over year.

Some good reading out there for those looking to make sense of offseason club moves.

1. Salary Cap Realities Harsh For Seattle Sounders, David Clark.

2. Real Salt Lake see more players victimized by MLS salary cap and roster policies, "denz"

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The wise are instructed by reason, average minds by experience, the stupid by necessity and the brute by instinct. - Cicero
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One cannot develop taste from what is of average quality but only from the very best. - Goethe
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7 Options Declined

The Columbus Crew today announced they will be declining options on the following players contracts: William Hesmer, Rich Balchan, Julius James, Sebastian Miranda, Chris Birchall, Tony Tchani; and forward Tommy Heinemann.

Columbus is free to negotiate new contracts with these players but it is not likely that the club will pick any back up. Roster bullet points:

• All totaled the Crew dropped $ 854,825 in Guaranteed Salary ($ 710,950 Base) today.

• $ 1,899,900 worth of contracts remain on the 2013 payroll, $ 1,554,200 (Base Salary) left on the roster, according to MLS Salary Cap rules

• Only 9 players left from just 2 years ago. Of them, 2 were regular starters. Columbus very much in rebuilding mode despite reports out of team HQ stating otherwise.

Here is a list of 17 players that will be returning in 2013: Andy Gruenebaum, Matt Lampson, Eric Gehrig, Chad Marshall, Josh Williams, Bernardo Anor, Dilly Duka, Ethan Finlay, Eddie Gaven, Kevan George, Milovan Mirosevic, Jairo Arrieta, Federico Higuaín, Aaron Horton, Justin Meram, Aaron Schoenfeld, and Ben Speas.

According to reports, the Crew will be offering new contracts to Carlos Mendes, Emilio Renteria and Danny O'Rourke.

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SOME THOUGHTS

Sadly, a lot of what was cut strikes me as simply cutting injured players. I do not believe the Columbus Crew have the resources to care and feed players with injury (of any kind). Hesmer, Balchan, and Heinemann all had season injuries early on. James suffered a collapsed lung that sidelined him most of the year then battled a reoccurring shoulder injury. All were cut and all are probably casualty of a poorly financed and run fitness and training staff.

Sebastian Miranda and Chris Birchall are pure examples of unnecessary cuts in my book. They have MLS experience and earn a modest starting salary. Replacements will likely be, at best, similar quality. It's 'change for change sake' at it's best.

Tony Tchani seemed to come on a bit this year but ultimately it's probably his Generation Adidas contract that did him in.

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I WILL MISS TOMMY HEINEMANN

Having only been a casual fan over the years, Tommy probably responsible for me getting hooked on following the Crew as closely as I have since late 2010. I'm not even going to pretend to use data to justify keeping him (even though his win % as a starter remains one of the best in last 2 years). I favor him too much. He's a good dude and I wish him the best where ever he goes.

Tommy's time with the Crew inspired enough in me to make a couple videos... 1st is a video during a long road trip out west back in 2011.



Another was in defeat... but myths, legends and heroes are made in such times:



And here's a 3rd one I did.

The Crew Brand

Almost positive this is a topic that is going to get more and more attention as the weeks and months go by, so touching on it for a minute.

Outside of what the word "massive" means and how the club plans on usurping it, there seems to be two separate arguments stemming from a Brand Survey the Columbus Crew asked fans to fill out. It was first sent out to fans of whom they had email addresses for. It was later posted on their site. You can find it here, Black and Gold Brand Survey.

The Two Arguments:

1st is about the logo itself. Even though I'm very far from my BA in Graphic Design (and Fine Art!), I know the thing is dated. I also asked a couple of friends who design for a living (one in Raleigh, NC another in LA) and whose opinion I trust more than my own what they thought, they agreed.

2nd argument is about what the logo means. What it stands for. These days I'm closer to what symbols mean more than how they look. The Crew logo has come to actually mean something in a way that some other pro sports in the US take for granted. In a lot of ways the Crew logo is the brand.

I'm sure a brand refresh would generate some interest and sell a few more tickets (I'm thinking Miami Marlins) but I believe it comes at cost greater than the gain. I'm having a hard time coming up with a total brand refresh that has been 100% worth it. Narrowing down the 'refresh' list to teams not moving out of town and it gets even harder to find a good example.

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I've written about the "Crew Brand" a few times over the past couple years.

THROUGH THESE GATES

"The game of soccer was born behind places like Columbus Steel Castings and in towns like Newcastle Upon Tyne. The "Through these gates..." like sign is not uncommon around union halls and other mfg facilities around town. "America's hardest working team" comes naturally to this part of the country."

BARBASOL LOGO ON CREW GAMEDAY SHIRTS

"I work, and have been working, in manufacturing here in Columbus for over six years. For me? Reaffirmation sometimes shows itself in the form of being able to share a moment talking Crew soccer with someone who physically sweats, sneezes, and coughs up black soot. I doubt many who are casting stones at the Crew have met someone like that.

Maybe there are folks out there that have never met someone who gets a three dollar pay increase for merely not getting maimed or even dying in the first couple months at the local foundry. That same someone who might only know of the Crew through their team slogan, "Hardest working team in America." "

Josh Williams (talent+romanticism)

"The future growth of this sport in this area is not in the teenagers filling stands on Saturday nights right now, but it is those same teenagers 20 years from now who are Jack swigging, pot smoking - proud - Iron Workers Union - hellraisers filling the stands and taking their kids out to the game."

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Outsiders also tend to view the club as "hardworking, underdog" but think the logo sucks. I realize it's not for everyone but I enjoy this view on the Columbus Crew. I think it actually means something in that it actually represents an ethic and not just an animal, mythical being or a natural disaster.

If the Crew organization doesn't like that ethic or doesn't think it represents the folks around town then they need to step out of their office, drive down to Obetz, Ohio where their training facility is and walk into any one of the literally dozens of warehouses surrounding it. I actually work in one of them, right down near Rickenbacker Airport.

They can come on down and take a look around. I only ask a couple things that might sound a bit off to them but familiar to over half the City of Columbus: No loose clothing, hair can't drop below their shoulders. Flat soled shoes and long pants are recommended. I'll provide the safety glasses, a mask for dust producing areas and coating department... and, if necessary, a hardhat.

Thanks.

The Crew Forward Market

Now that I've looked at Crew Defenders and Midfielders, it's time to take a look at the Crew's attacking group. Just as in the last post I'm going to touch on which players are a hit and which are a miss in regards to contract.

You'd figure that writing about the Forward position might be the most exciting, but it really isn't. Why this is probably has a lot to do with the Columbus Crew switching to a single forward attack over the two that they preferred all of last year and at the start of this year.

The rise of the 4-2-3-1 as Robert Warzycha's primary formation comes from the lack of any target man. The injury to Tommy Heinemann, impatience with Olman Vargas and generally 'rookie-ness' of Aaron Schoenfeld almost forced the oh so mighty hand of Warzycha to go with what was his secondary formation (the: 4-2-3-1) last year.

Since that formation change - the club rode the Jairo Arrieta train from summer on. What that means is that there isn't a whole lot to hang our hats on here at the "forward" position. All is not lost though. How about we look at it from a "attacking" position perspective.

CONTRACT HITS BASED ON VALUE

Federico Higuain
Value: $195k, Contract: $162k
Notes: Contract was cut in half to adjust for MLS rules regarding players starting half way through the season.

Emilio Renteria
Value: $163k, Contract: $134k
Notes: Renteria's Goal p90 rate tanked this year but most of that was due to the change in his role. Renteria took his positional change really well and actually earned three assists.

Jairo Arrieta
Value: $134k, Contract: $113k
Notes: Arrieta is another contract I cut in half due to MLS rules on players coming in halfway through the season.

CONTRACT MISS BASED ON VALUE

Olman Vargas (released)
Value: $79k, Contract: $175k
Notes: Olman contract option was not picked up by the Crew.

...AND ON VARGAS

Turns out that even my modest predictions for him back in February were too lofty. I predicted 3-5 goals, no assists and 1200 minutes of playing time with a scoring rate of 0.12. Turns out I was dead on the scoring rate. In MLS he got 0.13 but only half the 1200 minutes I foresaw. Also, he registered 0 (nowt) assists, just as I thought (mu-hahaha).

On other thing I tried to predict was his salary. I called it at $140k. Turns out it was slightly higher; $175k. What's frustrating to me is that armed with only public information I was able to predict what this player would do and the salary he would make.

Vargas was the only real loss the Crew took at the forward position. In fact, the forward position was the only group that was in the black.

It's surprising to me is that for all the fan discontent with the Crew attacking capabilities the players classified by Stats, Inc as Forwards actually did very well (in terms of value). Much better, in fact, then both Defenders and Midfielders.

-$196k: DEFENDERS
-$186k: MIDFIELD
+$127k: FORWARDS

THE UNDERPAID FORWARDS

Justin Meram and Aaron Schoenfeld are underpaid when comparing what they did to the rest of Major League Soccer. I value Meram at $169k and Schoenfeld at $80k. Both are clear values based on 2012 production. The earned well above their current salaries.

2013 SNEAK PEEK

Robert Warzycha will ride Higuain and Arrieta till the wheels come off. Problem will be - the wheels will inevitably come off. You can't win in this league with just one playmaker and one opportunistic forward. Banking an entire season on that combo is league table suicide. Aaron Schoenfeld and Tommy Heinemann will have to play a role in order for this team to make some noise in 2013. Look at the best teams in this league. Hell. Any league.

Simply put: You cannot survive on a poacher (Arrieta) and an advanced playmaking forward (Higuain) to create all your goals over a 34+ match season.

THE LAST TWO

Of the players that saw time, Ethan Finlay and Ben Speas are the only other players I haven't talked about. I like both of them. It appears that they will be spending time in unnatural spots. Speas seems to be destine for the Left Mid spot and Finlay? Anywhere else under King Warzycha. I like him anywhere that allows him to run.

Crew Midfield, MLS Value Conversation

The more time I spend with on this type of analysis the more things start jumping out at me. It's especially apparent now that I've reviewed the Crew Defenders and Midfield. While the specific numbers matter to me, the simpler way to look at this is to call a players contract either a "Hit" or "Miss".

It's great that there are some players far exceeding contract but what is also impressive are those players that demand larger contracts and perform up to that level. Going back to my last post real quick, you'll notice two players that were definite salary / contract "Hits" in Sebastian Miranda and Carlos Mendes and three decidedly "Miss" in James, Vukovic, and Marshall.

Looking at the group as a whole it's easy to say that the Crew missed on the entire backline with contracts falling -$(195,506) to the red. That actually puts them 14th in the league (not good) in regards to the backline (TFC, COL, VAN, PHI) territory. However, upon closer inspection I see that C. Marshall makes up 89% of that deficit.

Similar tale to tell here with the Crew midfield. The players at this position carry a contract deficit of -$(186,126) and through not much fault on his own, Dilly Duka makes up 74% of it (reminder: I always use 'guaranteed contract'). Duka is coming of Generation Adidas graduation and appears to be saddled with a heavily incentivised contract. It is very possible that the 'herky-jerky' nature of his playing time was due to this. Has the Robert Warzycha and Co. ruined a talented player here? I have a feeling we will find out very soon when/if he suits up for another club and plays his natural central MF spot.

Other midfield contract misses are Milovan Mirosevic, Danny O'Rourke and possibly Chris Birchall. Mirosevic's $223,000 is 28% too high in my book. I value him at a healthy $160k, which is significantly above league median of $110k, which means he added value but he did not live up to this heavy price tag.

In fact, no midfielder in MLS really lives up to a salary that high when looking a value based on performance. My analysis shows that anything over $215k might be too high for a MF player in MLS. Or, another way to put that is to say; that if you are a team looking at a offering a contract above $200k... don't, the risk far outweighs the return you will likely get.

As for the contract "Hits" I show Eddie Gaven and Tony Tchani. Now, Gaven is a solid Hit. I rank him as the 3rd best MF in MLS this year. Tchani's hit is a bit of a strange thing, but it makes sense upon closer inspection. MLS is littered with midfield players. Almost 200 different players saw time there (compared with 150 Defenders, 110 Forwards) and a good chunk of them only played in half the games. Only 25% saw more than 2000 minutes compared to 36% of defenders. What this means is the MLS has a lot of midfield players making good money only playing half the time. There are many possible reasons for this, first being that a MF does a lot of running.

That said. This is a 'market value' look at the league so while MLS has a collective problem in searching for the right MF players, Tchani falls into a sweet spot on the list. Here are some of the players around him on my player rating and make similar salary: Gabriel Gomez, Luiz Camargo, David Ferreira, Bobby Convey, Branko Boskovic... Those are some heavy hitters but also some large salaries. All of these players only played in about half their team's games yet make over 200k.

Tony Tchani also has one of these Generation Adidas contracts that tend to out pace player value according to MLS. The difference between his base and guaranteed is $104k and Duka's diff is $130k. That's a lot of added pressure on both player and coach and I can see why MLS is taking a closer look at the GA program (It could be argued that this Adidas program pays correctly and MLS themselves undervalue. I'm not taking that on). Regardless, in my opinion any team with both these players should start them game in / game out. They are talented and will bring wins. Problem with the Crew is that they reached on them before their salary counted towards the cap and now that it does, they realize that, while they are valuable and meet their "Base Salary", they are not worth their heavy guaranteed rates.

CIRCUMSTANCE GUIDES BLISS

Brian Bliss is the Crew Technical Director. On his own, he knows young undiscovered talent (he is connected to that pipeline) but I think he tends to miss on experienced players when he doesn't have the help of folks like Guillermo Barros Schelotto.

Looking up and down the list of Crew midfielders it is circumstance might do in Dilly Duka and Tony Tchani while in my opinion the wise cut might be Mirosevic. If the Crew can rework Duka and Tchani's contracts down to where their guaranteed is at base levels they should keep them as they are both worth that.

One other larger contract th Crew have is Chris Birchall. I'm not sure about him, because he came into the season a little late, if is $109k contract has to be paid in full. I am confident that had he been around all season he would have been a "Hit".

Lastly, we have a trio of lower wage midfielders that contributed well above their league mandated minimums. They were

Kevan George
$33,750 salary : 67,500 HB Value

Bernardo Anor
$44,100 salary : 75,833 HB Value

Cole Grossman (released)
$44,100 salary : 67,600 HB Value

Bernardo could very well end up on the defender list next year even though he's only a defender in the eyes of Robert Warzycha. Note: Ethan Finlay is listed as a Forward by Stats, Inc. I will cover him later with that group.

FINAL THOUGHTS

The MF positions in this league seem to be a revolving door and the Crew is no different. This muddies the waters and makes contract evaluation difficult. My recommendation to the Crew would be to work on a consistent and durable MF lineup (and formation) and work from there. Constant change will only make things more difficult to evaluate and therefore reward/compensate appropriately.

The reason this post is in conversational for is because there is very little to ground these players with. You've got GA players with unbalanced contracts, an aging Chilean who never found his rhythm, a talented young leader who requested out, a skillful gazelle who was put into an unnatural left back position and tore his knee apart, and another who very well could be one of the best MLS midfielders of his generation.

The Crew's problem is here - in the midfield. Not so much in that there isn't enough talent, more that it is probably been misused or there is a disconnect between Brian Bliss and the coaching staff.

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THANKSGIVING

As I'm finishing this midfield post up and getting ready to head out to meet friends on this day I can't help but think of Kirk Urso and his family. While I'd give a lot to be writing about his performance and what he would contribute to next year - his life reminds us all of what is really important.

Crew Defense, Market Value (Salary)

Off and on over the past couple years I've been trying to come up with a meaningful way to measure MLS Player Value. I mentioned it in my last post, calling it HB Market Value. What I did with that was pull the median from the 10 salaries above and below an individual performer based on my own player rating model.

I thought the results were interesting and somewhat useful but there were too many strange outcomes. After some digging I found that it was because the difference in what a Forward makes in relationship to what a Defender or Mid-fielder or what-have-you. So, I've taken one small extra step and pulled out the players by position and re-run the 10 above / 10 below median salary.

I'm satisfied with what I've got right now. Here is what happened with Crew Defenders. It is sorted by % Above or Below 2012 Salary:

1. JOSH WILLIAMS
HB Market Value : $112,500
2012 Salary : $44,100
Difference : +$68,400

2. ERIC GEHRIG
HB Market Value : $71,466
2012 Salary : $44,000
Difference : +$27,466

3. SEBASTIAN MIRANDA
HB Market Value : $160,500
2012 Salary : $140,000
Difference : +$20,500

4. CARLOS MENDES
HB Market Value : $96,250
2012 Salary : $106,209
Difference : -$(9,959)

5. JULIUS JAMES
HB Market Value : $69,313
2012 Salary : $100,000
Difference : -$(30,687)

6. NEMANJA VUKOVIC*
HB Market Value : $84,571
2012 Salary : $125,500
Difference : -$(40,929)

7. DANNY O'ROURKE
HB Market Value : $89,303
2012 Salary : $145,600
Difference : -$(56,297)

8. CHAD MARSHALL
HB Market Value : $161,000
2012 Salary : $341,250
Difference : -($(174,000)

* Vukovic has was let go earlier this week.

If you add these 8 salaries up and subtract my "HB Market Value" you end up with a overall loss on these players.

$1,040,409 : Total Salaries
$844,903 : HB Market Value
-$(195,506.00) : Difference

I can see why the Crew eliminated Vukovic but removing him doesn't take their backline into overall profitability. Oft injured Marshall, James and O'Rourke are concrete boots to this position. All are excellent players (Danny's work roaming the mid-field is master-class, when he's out there. Thus illo above. I'll include him in my Mid-Field market eval) but (right now) their contracts far outweigh contribution.

The only way to take the Crew backline back into profitability would be to drop Marshall and one of the following; James, Vukovic, or O'Rourke.

Marshall was just resigned a long deal and O'Rourke seems to be staying. With Vukovic gone, this leaves Julius James as the odd man out.

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THE LEAGUE PICTURE

153 different players saw time (according to STATS,INC) as a Defender during the 2012 MLS season. The Median salary for this group was $99,000.

Here are the Players who most outperformed their 2012 MLS contract. On the left is % value above salary.



383% : Connor Lade : (NY)
270% : Chris Korb : (DC)
168% : Jeb Brovsky : (MON)
167% : Tyler Ruthven : (NY)
155% : Josh Williams : (CREW)
155% : Bryan Gaul : (LA)
153% : Steven Beitashour : (SJ)
151% : Raymon Gaddis : (PHI)
150% : Jermaine Taylor : (HOU)
146% : Austin Berry : (CHI)

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When I talk "Market Value" I'm talking within Major League Soccer universe only. More specifically the 2012 MLS universe. Trying to determine a player's value to foreign leagues is a completely different species. It's something I would love to take on at some point, but this... that is not.

Crew Drop Three, Grossman to RSL

Olman Vargas, Nemanja Vukovic and Cole Grossman have been dropped.

From TheCrew.com: "All three players are not eligible for the MLS Re-entry Process and will be placed on the MLS Waiver wire, with the MLS Waiver Draft taking place at 3:30 p.m. ET this afternoon."

A COUPLE THINGS on that STATEMENT

1. Grossman was the only player picked from the 43 dropped for today's "Waiver Draft". Real Salt Lake nabbed him, wisely.

2. The Re-entry Process" is a tricky animal as MLS over-engineers player draft rules everything. My understanding is that Vargas and Vukovic are dangling out there once their 2012 contract officially ends at the end of the calendar year. Both are quality players

NICHOLAS HOLLAND "Cole" GROSSMAN

I've written a lot about Cole here at Helltown over the course of the 2012 season, with emphasis since the end of the Crew season when doing player evaluations. The reason for this is because his metrics were notably good in the short time he played.

Real Salt Lake was smart to pick him up.

For me? He's a $44k a year player who was put into impossible positions when called upon this year. He started against Seattle, DC United, Sporting KC, LA, and Houston and never lost a match with 8 goals for and only 4 against. If you didn't notice; Those are the best teams in the league.

His counterpart, Milovan Mirosevic? He didn't win a single game against a team ranked 1-9 on the table when starting. NOT A SINGLE ONE. 0 Wins, 4 Draws, 5 Losses. 10 Goals For, 16 Against. A main contributer to the club missing the 2012 playoffs was Mirosevic's presence on the pitch when playing better competition.

Let's take a second to break down some of the incompetence that Grossman mentions in his Facebook post today.

Below is a record of the Crew's results when Mirosevic was a starter against better competition:

Round 4: NY. LOSS
Round 6: HOU. DRAW
Round 10: SJ DRAW
Round 20: DC. LOSS
Round 21: LA. DRAW

You would think that during this part of the season the club would have noticed a trend. Why? Because by week 22 Grossman had 3 wins in 5 starts vs top teams to Mirosevics 0 in 5.

The team didn't take notice and started Mirosevic in critical late year matches. He ended up starting in 4, losing 3.

Round 28: NY. LOSS
Round 30: CHI. LOSS
Round 32: SKC. DRAW
Round 33: DC. LOSS

At one of the most important positions on a Robert Warzycha coached team (Defensive Mid-Fielder)... Why would Mirosevic, a player who clearly struggled against better players early on, get time late in the year against quality clubs?

I'm sorry, but it doesn't take a Duke University graduate to figure this one out. A trend is a trend. It should have been sorted. The Crew reacted quickly with Olman Vargas by pulling him early in the season (didn't start after week 10, no wins against top half talent), why not Mirosevic?

GROSSMAN IN A BETTER SITUATION

RSL is ranked 3rd in over all record over the last 4 years. While it's true that Columbus is 4th in that time, RSL still clocks in at 4th over the last two years. Columbus has tumbled to 9th.

Grossman is going to a better run MLS franchise. The fact that they picked a player like him is a testament to how they measure performance and why they are consistently better than Columbus and the other 15 clubs in the league below them.

AFFINITY DIAGRAM TIME

I ventured in to the ever increasing dark forest that is Facebook and found that common fans are upset about Vukovic getting dropped. Longer written posts reason out in favor of keeping Cole and there is general indifference to Vargas.

PLAYER VALUE

I rate every player. I also keep track of every player's salary. If I take the 10 players above and below an individual on my rating scale I can summize general value (or "HB Market Value" if I may. If you will).

Nemanja Vukovic: $125,500
HB Market Value: $75,000
Difference: -($50,500)

Olman Vargas: $175,000
HB Market Value: $93,300
Difference: -($81,700)

Cole Grossman: $44,100
HB Market Value: $65,000
Difference: +$20,9000

Both Vukovic and Vargas are overpaid. Cole is underpaid by a significant percentage. By picking him up in the MLS Waiver Draft RSL is getting a value.

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The Columbus Crew let go of $344,600 today.

The total HB Market Value of these players: $233,300.

Aggregate salary dropped today, by club.

$756,255 : NYR : 9
$463,790 : PHI : 3
$413,256 : SKC : 4

$344,600 : CREW : 3

$292,514 : FCD : 5
$208,502 : COL : 2
$185,600 : TFC : 4
$155,000 : VAN : 3
$149,372 : NER : 4
$111,500 : POR : 3
$103,333 : SJE : 1
$35,750 : RSL : 1
$33,750 : MON : 1

RSL picked up Cole's $44,100 salary, so call it even for them.

Of the 43 dropped today I recommend the following players (other than Cole):

B. Brettschneider: $33,756
HB Market Value: 105,950
Difference: +$72,194

C. Rodriguez: $64,383
HB Market Value: $90,750
Difference: +$26,367

Make the Right Crew Move, Or Not

With player exit interviews supposedly complete and the last day of club organized 2012 training over it's time take these passing nods and winks coming out of the Columbus Crew press mill and write about it, like any blogger should. "Read the tea leaves," as they say. Fair enough, perhaps I should. Or... how about we take the tea leaves and brew 'em into a poisonous concoction.

Adam Jardy of the Columbus Dispatch is reporting that Defensive Mid-Fielder Cole Grossman's "Future With Crew Uncertain".

Cole Grossman out performed every other Defensive Mid-Fielder on the Columbus Crew in 2012.

1. % of Total Possible Pts Earned as Starter

73% : Cole Grossman
56% : Danny O'Rourke
53% : Chris Birchall
46% : Eric Gehrig
44% : Milovan Mirosevic
38% : Tony Tchani
33% : Kevan George

2. Goal Difference per Start

+1.00 : Cole Grossman
+0.17 : Danny O'Rourke
+0.00 : Chris Birchall
-0.04 : Milovan Mirosevic
-0.14 : Tony Tchani
-0.25 : Kevan George
-0.38 : Eric Gehrig

3. Avg Opponent Rank

5.8 : Cole Grossman
8.9 : Chris Birchall
9.6 : Tony Tchani
10.0 : Kevan George
10.8 : Danny O'Rourke
11.2 : Milovan Mirosevic
11.3 : Eric Gehrig

Some of these players jumped around between the backline and DM, but including them anyway. All have over 5 starts. Enough.

Grossman clearly leads all the 'executive summary' type metrics. Not only did he play the best teams, he did the best. And for the least amount of salary. That said, something not on the summary but one of the other things I track here is "True Value". It's the difference between what a player makes (listed salary in US $) and their contribution to their club's overall record in a given season based on my own rating model. Here is how that looks for 2012:

+$37,879.91 : Eric Gehrig
+$26,519.07 : Chris Birchall
+$19,250.67 : Kevan George
+$16,450.77 : Cole Grossman

-$11,517.74 : Danny O'Rourke
-$35,752.07 : Milovan Mirosevic
-$83,913.39 : Tony Tchani

(Positive is good, negative is bad. This is the estimated amount the player contributed to the 2012 regular MLS season above or below salary. Observation: The Crew tend to stick to playing players as they pay them, regardless of individual form. Example: highly paid get time, lower less - regardless of results. More on this some other time, perhaps. Good job Eric Gehrig.)

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PERSPECTIVE ON THE CREW'S "D-MID" SPOT

After toying around it as [the "Crew's"] secondary formation early in the year, Robert Warzycha and the rest of the band decided that 4-2-3-1 was their thing. How does that formation work? Let us take a look...

Hold six back, let three choose their own adventure and hang one up top.

Keep in mind that this only became the primary formation after Warzycha's "narrow diamond mid-field" 4-1-3-2 fell apart - due, in part, to the injuries mounting at the wing backs and holding defensive mid spots. Also, key injury of target man; Tommy Heinemann and the (arguable) misfire signing of Olman Vargas. It was expected that their pairing with speedy and capable poachers like Renteria and Arrieta would keep the the 4-1-3-2 alive.

The move to a 4-2-3-1 saw the Crew became dependent on two competent "Defensive Mid-Fielders" instead of just one. Look back at 2011 you see players like Danny O'Rourke, Dejan Rusmir, Kevin Burns, Emmanuel Ekpo, or Rich Balchan filling that single CDM spot and now in 2012 it's the folks I list above filling two.

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MAKING SENSE OF PLAYER MOVES

We live in a data rich society where winners and losers will be determined by who understand how to best use it and those that don't. It's not about looking at any small group of numbers like passing % or possession in a single regular season game... it's not even pitting 'data nerds' v. 'old school feel'.

In sports; it's about success. Results. Winning and Surviving within the parameters set before you. Data reliant or not. Results are dependent on extrapolating the important and reliable from what is just noise.

What is important?

For every Nate Silver prediction model - I'd like to think I can provide a Ben Olsen desire to win. Give me a Billy Beane's top 9 and I'll put them up against my seasoned scout's (middling away in North Texas or the Dominican) top 9. How about an Ivan Drago v. Rocky Balboa? It's an extreme, but America lives and breathes in extremes and is undeniably prosperous (historically... and wow, I open up a can of worms in my head).

I'll give into heart and leadership if it is truly earned. I honestly believe in the power of Great Leadership and the power of one to move the many. However, that is rare and it exists not here on the 2012 Columbus Crew. I wish it did, but it does not. Therefore, priority should be placed on results and the numbers behind them.

Always trust the numbers.

This time of year I find myself trying to look past the forced smiles and words from Brian Bliss, Cody Sharrett, Ashleigh Ignelzi and Mark McCullers. It is disappointing that in 2012 moves are still being made without data to support them and logic is cast aside for the dream of the next best thing that will most certainly never be.

Crew Final Player Rating

Below will be how I see things regarding final Crew player Ratings on the 2012 Season. If you look on the right of this blog you will see that I've spent some time with different player rating systems and their take on this past year's Crew team.

You'll notice the headers. "HBR" is my player rating. "Castrol" is the Castrol Index that MLS employs. "Guldan" is the rating SB Nation's Crew blog gave. "HBS Top H" is a score I track. It's a players Points Earned Per Game + Goal Difference. "Diff" is the difficulty of opponents each player faced when on the field.

First up will be the players finishing outside the top 18 in average rating.

Players "19-30" on any Major League Soccer team can be both the most important - and the most meaningless. Over the past few years the Columbus Crew have done a fairly good job in populating the senior team roster with good talent. You'll notice that this list includes young and/or injured players. Big call out: Julius James shouldn't be here and Francis is gone already.

I like the rest on this list. I think Schoenfeld and Heinemann are healthy target players to have in MLS. Arrieta came on strong, but players like him get eaten up by the physical nature of this league. Crew need goals from big men in the box. Gehrig, Anor, Finlay, and Speas are the kind of players you want working to get in the top 18.

Next up is the middle group.

This is the most critical group and here is where you'll probably see the most change. These guys saw significant minutes but received mixed reviews. Call Outs: Mirosevic was picked to be an important leader of the club and for the most part he was. Problem might be that (and this includes my own system) he showed better due to level of competition. He somehow managed to participate in a nearly full season yet rank towards the bottom in playing against top clubs.

Another call out is Olman Vargas. He played against quality competition but struggled. Same with Federico Higuain, in a way. Higuain really benefited from being in the right place at the right time this year but he did outstandingly during his short time. Next year should be interesting.

The polar opposite of Mirosevic is Cole Grossman. He received tepid reviews from me, Castrol and Guldan but over-performed against good competition when evaluating actual results. The reason I include performance against teams in the Top Half is because of Cole (being honest, but you can't ignore the results).

Of this list of players I think Nemanja Vukovic, Emilio Renteria and Tony Tchani are in danger of moving on. Renteria is worth hanging on to, but we'll see.

THE TOP 2012 PLAYERS

Up to the final list now, the top guys. One of the things I looked for in regards to player rating over different systems and metrics was variance. I liked low numbers and little difference between them. I saw that with Josh Williams and Chris Birchall. Andy Gruenebaum and Sebastian Miranda also fall in there.

Unfortunately, I think Dilly Duka is on the 'fringe' along with Carlos Mendes. Both these guys probably out performed what most of us saw but circumstance might bite them in the end. For the record, I think both Dilly Duka and Carlos Mendes are players I think the Crew should work to retain. At the very least, both are MLS ready and had great metrics. That alone should keep them on the Crew's list of 2013 roster players.

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There is a melancholic feeling to this post for me now that I'm done reviewing the Crew players. It by no means covers everything or every feeling I have about each player. November is generally a big month of change for a lot of Crew players. My thoughts and prayers are with those most affected by the changes.