On Mega-Corporations, Hedge Funds, Risk Management, and Faith in Major League Soccer

By: Vidda "JibJab" Grubin

If you have failed to recover sufficiently from your New Year’s celebration and the blue-ball shattering cold of early this week, you may not have heard, Michael Bradley of U.S. men’s national team fame has decided to return to Major League Soccer. Bradley will be playing for Toronto F.C. Your opinion of Bradley’s move undoubtedly falls somewhere at or between “OMFG! Awesome!” and “What a dumb-ass move, we just lost the World Cup.”

While both of the above opinions are equally extreme and speak to your need to get off the internets and find a significant other, I have no intention of addressing Mr. Bradley’s wanderings from that particular perspective. Rather, I would like you to give me a few moments of your precious soccer-blog reading time as I neatly couch this most recent Major League Soccer signing in terms of our league’s past, present and future.

First off, I have a great deal of faith in Major League Soccer and the people in charge.

Beginning in 1993 in Lamar Hunt’s cheap whiskey smelling, smoke filled, subterranean lair, where a handful of really rich guys played Texas Holdem to see who would own the rights to the Los Angeles franchise, through the lean years of the late 90’s and early 2000’s, the cabal known as Huntgarbschutz has navigated the peaks and valleys with amazing dexterity and forethought.

Many new owners, teams, stadiums and players later, Major League Soccer is truly poised to join the big boys of American professional sports. And yet, the Michael Bradley signing has tapped into a deep, long forgotten well of pessimism inside my head. (Ahh, you instinctually clever individuals are saying “Pessimism is never far from the surface with this one.” And you would be correct, but that is of no matter presently)

To get to the seething river of pessimism let’s establish a baseline. Your mileage may vary. 

1. What constitutes the solid base of MLS? A number of factors, obviously, but let’s find two. A) The well managed fiscal structure of the league and B) The growing physical presence, i.e. soccer specific stadiums.

2. What springs from 1? A) Consistency, which allows the league to acquire/develop better players, sponsors, tv contracts and B) Permanence, which gives team supporters/fans a warm feeling in their soccer loving souls.

Now that we have established what the significant foundational factors are for MLS (I realize there’s more to it. Do you want this column to be twenty pages long?), why the pessimism?

Michael Bradley, Clint Dempsey, Jermain Defoe and other similar signings in the future are so out-of-whack with the general structure of the league that it’s hard not to be a bit worried. Consider a quote from a Wall Street Journal article from September 24, 2010.

“David Beckham and Landon Donovan of the Galaxy and Rafael Marquez, Juan Pablo Angel and the injured Thierry Henry of the Red Bulls make a combined $21.7 million in guaranteed compensation from their clubs. This represents about 30% of the entire league payroll of $71.3 million, according to MLS Players Union figures.”

The above quote throws cold water on my seething pessimism and lends it credence. Most of those signings went well for Major League Soccer. The Beckham cult of personality paid for itself, but only a few players in the world can have the same effect. Michael Bradley and Jermain Defoe do not fit into the Beckham category, and therein lies the rub.

The incredible difference between the haves and the have nots, can’t be good for the long term viability of the league, right? I don’t think so, but that doesn’t make it so, unless I can convince you. The MLS players who produce at the same level as the Bradley’s and Beckham’s surely aren’t too happy when they see the fifty-fold discrepancy in pay. And when taken in context of what is possibly the most player-driven-team-oriented-sport on the planet, the feelings of inequality seem inevitable and counterproductive.

Certainly a handful of Major League Soccer players moping like five-year-olds who lost video game privileges because they don’t make the dollars they think they should isn’t going to fly the league into a tailspin; but, what about peering at the issue from an owner’s point of view. Again some background.

The North American Soccer League (NASL) of the 70’s and early 80’s, the one which attracted players like Cruyff, Pele, and Best is the cautionary tale which has kept the current owners of Major League Soccer from reaching too far, too fast...so far.

Why did the NASL fail?

Most importantly they didn’t take care of the base, that part I mentioned, you know, the fiscal and the physical. Yet, even without having built from the ground up, they might have survived if not for the hubris of the league’s owners. There were no curbs in place to keep the egos which accompany those who so often succeed in the realm of big business and finance from veering off the proper path.

Those owners drove their own league into the ground because they couldn’t control themselves. I have an inkling that you and I are seeing what just might be the beginnings of the same problem for MLS. Like the NASL owners of thirty years ago the Major League Soccer owners of today are fudging their own risk averse rules and starting to throw money around like its so much toilet paper.

Do you think the NASL owners personally went broke, and thus the league went away? Maybe one or two did, but what really happened was a bunch of rich guys got tired of losing money, and so, they stopped; because, that’s what rich guys do. If enough of the billionaires running MLS lose money long enough, they will get bored; they will find other outlets for their egos. (Pro Tiddlywinks League?)

In short, I hope my faith in the Garbers, Precourts, Leiwekes and Hunts of the world is justifiably placed. I hope they have hedged their big money moves, i.e. Michael Bradley, with more foundation building. You know, downtown soccer specific stadiums in places like Orlando, Miami, Minnesota, Atlanta, Boston, Columbus (please, Mr. Precourt, Brewery district is my fave), big money long term broadcast and sponsorship deals, and a significant increase of the salary cap/minimum salary (Say to a cool $5/6 mill/$75 thou) so that the overall quality of the league leaps forward.

If the only thing happening is individual owners spending their own money for a few big name players, that’s not good. That’s really not good. Solely trusting the vanity and perception of the human individual has always, always, led to disaster. There must be balance, and when I say balance, I’m talking balanced books and balanced perspective...Because  

Nothing ruins the beautiful game in the long run like a handful of prima-donnas (owners and players both) trying to convince knowledgeable fans that the game is about personalities and strutting egos. It’s not. It never has been. It never will be.

Crew Add Players, Coaches

The Crew added two academy standouts Ross Friedman and Matt Walker yesterday to the 2014 roster. They have also added Robert Maaskant as an assistant and Pat Onstad as a goalkeepers coach.

PLAYERS

Both players are Ohioans. Friedman is from the affluent Columbus suburb of Bexley, Ohio was most recently with Harvard University (Ivy League, same as Dartmouth grad Anthony Precourt) and Walker with Xavier, a Cincinnati kid.

The signings add to the already overflowing Ohio born Crew roster. In fact the Crew now have 9 players from Ohio and another 6 from the region.

15 : From Ohio or Midwest Region
12 : Foreign or somewhere else in US

COACHES

Maaskant, a Dutchman, has been moving from team to team for most of his playing and coaching career. It appears he crossed paths with HC Gregg Berhalter in his travels. He comes with extensive experience all over the place really. Notably with the Texas Dutch Lions a couple years ago (Crew recently announcing Dayton Dutch Lions as an affiliate).

Onstad is a name that most MLS fans will recognize. He was most recently on Ben Olsen's DC United staff with Josh Wolff in DC (though many would like to forget that year). He'll be in Columbus to handle the Crew goalkeeping group.

Bradley to MLS Franchise TFC, Team Wages

USMNT star player Michael Bradley returning to Major League Soccer, says multiple reports.

The wage figure of $6.5 million would put Bradley at David Beckham's level as the one of the highest in league history. What does this do as far as team wages for TFC?

What this chart shows is how each team finished each year, in regards to guaranteed salary, the last four years. I've indicated where TFC is right now (still a few slots to fill even).

Traditionally, MLS has allowed NY and LA spend around the $10 million dollar range with everyone else in the $3.5 - 4.0 mil range but recent years show Seattle Sounders and even Montreal Impact breaking free from the pack.

Early Crew Goal, Mins Projection

Any player, when given enough time, can score goals. When your looking at how many goals a team might score a good place to start is how many minutes any given player might get.

Team watchers should be able to look up and down the current Columbus Crew roster and come to some pretty solid conclusions as to how many minutes players will be getting. I did this last year with a reasonable amount of success.

Here's how my projections looked on a positional level:

POSITION : PROJECTED, ACTUAL : DIFF
MIDFIELD : 14,6 : -8 (Gaven)
FORWARDS : 30,29 : -1
DEFENDERS : 4,6 : 2

From a goal scoring perspective, Gaven's injury really set the team back but even with him the 2013 Crew were just not equipped to get enough into the back of the net.

What I did last year was just plug in expected per 90 goal outputs based on past performance. This year I've done the same.

So the big question is, do they have enough this year?

2014 GOALS : NAME : EXPECTED MINS
8 : Dominic Oduro : 3000
8 : Federico Higuain : 3000
7 : Jairo Arrieta : 2000
6 : Bernardo Anor : 2500
4 : Daniel Paladini : 1500
3 : Josh Williams : 3000
2 : Ryan Finley : 1000
2 : Tony Tchani : 2500
1 : Justin Meram : 500
1 : Ben Speas : 1000
1 : Aaron Schoenfeld : 500

0 : Agustin Viana : 1500
0 : Wil Trapp : 2500
0 : Chad Barson : 2000
0 : Ethan Finlay : 500
0 : Eric Gehrig : 1000
0 : Tyson Wahl : 1200
0 : Kevan George : 500
0 : Matt Lampson : 0
0 : Brad Stuver : 0
0 : Steven Clark : 3000
0 : Waylon Francis : 1500
0 : Daniel Withrow : 0
0 : Shawn Sloan : 0
0 : Matt Wiet : 0

This works out to be around 43 goals as the team is built right now. There are too many players that have to achieve above what I think they are capable of in order for the team to get get over the magic number of 50 goals on the season (playoff level).

SOME NOTES, RISKS

• ONE GIVER: Dominic Oduro and Jairo Arrieta are going to be sharing key passes from Higuain. There is only one Federico on the pitch at a time.

• BROKEN RECORD: I'm in pre-season year two of saying Meram can get goals and be dangerous. The will need him this year, but the question remains; will they use him?

• MF: Goals (or threat of goals) are still missing from the midfield.

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FINAL THOUGHT ON EARLY GOAL ANALYSIS

Gregg Berhalter is going to have to be patient and stand by some tough early season lineups because it's looking like the key to this season isn't players like Oduro, Arrieta or Higuain.. they will get their stats, it's about the other guys. The role players. They are are going to be the key to the 2014 season.

They happen to also be the biggest unknown though.

Skiing is great in Vail, CO btw. Favorite place to reflect on a year gone by, and focus on what to accomplish in the coming year. #crew96

— Anthony Precourt (@APrecourt) December 31, 2013

January Crew Roster, Budget Update

January's updated Crew budget / roster is up over at Massive Report.

Crew Roster + Budget Snapshot, January

Quick highlights:
• Five open roster spots
• Crew probably have between $700k and 1 mil free
• Top needs still another Forward, CB

The main takeaway from this month's analysis is that the team has more money than roster spots to fill. Close to a million dollars is great but it sort of puts the team in the proverbial no-mans land.

Three (or even four) of the five spots left will probably be college draft players with the 1st pick pulling in $70-100k.

There are needs all over this team in terms of quality, experienced players and after the draft it still appears the might only be able to pick up one or two.

The remaining possibility is to bring in a number of quality trialists to camp in a few weeks and force a few players currently not tethered down for 2014 to compete for spots.

Outside of that, it's looking like the next significant move might not be till we are into the 2014 regular season.

2013, The Year In Soccer (Sort Of)

2013, The Year In Soccer (Sort Of)

By: Vidda “JibJab” Grubin

So, I promised this guy I know that I would write some pieces about soccer, the Columbus Crew, and well, stuff I write about in the way I write about...stuff. So far, I think I’m off to a good start.

Let’s set soccer aside for a moment. (I might get back to the bitch of a sport later. I can’t promise though) 2013 has been like the following for me. You know that “moment” when you’re with friends, sharing a pint of Guinness plus five or six plates of oven-warm bite-sized appetizers, all of you sitting or standing around thick oak tables of such permanence they seem to have been carved from the trunk of an eight foot in diameter, two hundred foot tall tree growing through the floor of the pub? That “moment” when the friend next to you says “Cathy and I are going to split up.”

You say (because you’re really not surprised at all) “Oh, man, that sucks! You guys are such a great couple.”

And then you spend the next five minutes trying to judge whether your friend wants to unload his underground cave full of mucous like misery on you or enlist you to begin the process of turning (the not present) Cathy into a psychopathic, homicidal, syphilitic whore. You know that moment, I know you do.

Well, for all of 2013, I’ve been the guy breaking-up with Cathy.

I’ve been the guy who’s like a ghost when you’re around him. You pretty much want that guy to turn Cathy into the psychopathic, homicidal, syphilitic whore: because, damn-it, that’s some fun-ass shit. Instead, for all of 2013, I’ve been the guy who you can’t quite figure out in that incredibly important five minutes after you said “Oh, man, that sucks! You guys are such a great couple.”

I don’t really care. Sometimes being the “ghost” is the only role available. So, I guess that’s the point, if there is one. (Which there’s not)

The nice thing about 2013, for me, soccer has been my “ghost.” I’ve wanted to hang out with soccer, but I can’t figure the bitch out. Does she want me to sit and listen to her underground cave full of mucous like misery (match fixing scandals; player cannibalism; Brazilians, rightfully, protesting the billions their country is spending on stadiums while millions are still living in squalor; the continued decision to send her most important moment to countries full of homophobes, close minded jerk-offs, and religious zealots in 2018/2022; referee beheadings, and a Major League Soccer Championship which resembled a UFC battle for an entire half)? Or, does the arbitrary, indiscriminate, erratic bitch want me to join her in painting the rest of the world as a psychopathic, homicidal, syphilitic whore?

I don’t know what the unpredictable “ghost” of soccer wants. Therefore, I have wavered between avoiding her and sneaking-up on her at opportune moments of my own choosing, much like my friends have done with me.

Like a sweet riff by Prince, maybe a bit of Let’s Go Crazy, I enjoyed the United States’ campaign to qualify for the 2014 World Cup. A campaign capped off with another resounding victory in Columbus, Ohio. Eddie Johnson, Michael Bradley, Landon Donovan, Tim Howard and the boys finished the final round of six with confidence.

I mostly hated watching EPL; although, seeing Luis Suarez resort to cannibalism on the pitch brought new meaning to “You’ll Never Walk Alone.” Perhaps “You’ll Never Eat Alone,” or “You’ll Never Eat His Liver With Some Vava Beans and a Nice Chianti If You Start With the Arm...Alone.”

I did enjoy watching Major League Soccer games broadcast from Portland and Seattle. Now, I’m a Crew fan, but that doesn’t (necessarily) make me stupid. I wish the Crew were on national broadcasts more often, yet how can you argue with putting MLS sides on TV that pack their stadiums full of boisterous, passionate fans. It’s simply good for the sport, which leads me to my “ghostly” wench’s next bit of 2013 irony. (I realize there’s no irony above)

With all the expansion going on in here (Sheikhy New York City FC, The Orlando Purple Pride, the probable addition of Beckham’s Miami David Beckham United Beckham’s FC and the Atlanta Gorillas) one can easily miss the elephant in the room. TV and Internet broadcast partnerships bringing in large SUMS of money are the next logical step for MLS. Nothing else comes close. Attractive, intimate stadiums in big city downtown environments, filled to capacity with the above mentioned passionate fans are of huge importance to the continued rise of the, bitch, soccer in this country.

Finally, 2013 saw the end of an era here in Columbus. As of right now, not a single player remains from the MLS Cup winning side of 2008. It’s weird, changing coaches was long overdue, but I have a hard time coming up with a professional soccer team anywhere/anytime in the history of the world (bold statement, probably the smallest bit of hyperbole) that only five years after winning their domestic championship sports not a single player from said championship. There’s something so wrong about this particular situation that I want to sit down with the cantankerous wench, pour a few pints and figure out just what the hell is going on.

Maybe in 2014 she’ll fess up, show her true colors, take off the mask, drop the pretense of mystery. Maybe, but deep inside you and I both know that’s not going to happen. You may as well get used to her the way she is; because, that moment I was talking about earlier, the one where your friend tells you a secret that’s not so secret, that’s the bitch, or bastard if you like, soccer. She’ll always be the “ghost” and you can’t do a damn thing about it.

Happy New Year!

Photo: Ghost-the movie

2013 HB Player of the Year

Darlington Nagbe wins my MLS player of the year 2013.

Nagbe finished best on my player rating model over the 2013 MLS regular season. He was the persistent quality presence on the Western Conference winning Portland Timbers.

PREVIOUS HELLTOWN BEER WINNERS
2012 : Chris Wondolowski
2011 : Todd Dunivant

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PHOTO: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports