Crew Loan 5, Finley Will Score Goals

Ryan Finley, 9th pick in the 2013 MLS college draft, is one of the five Crew players loaned to Dayton as part of the new affiliation program between MLS and USL Pro.

Finley only saw limited first team duty for the Columbus Crew in 2013 logging 430 regular season minutes, but did earn a goal and an an assist. By the end of the calendar year Ryan made the gameday squad 26 times but started only 3 (vs. all playoff teams Seattle, Houston, KC).

On the critical side, most of Finley's regular season minutes were awkward (he isn't the quickest, arms wide and head down), clunky (getting caught offside or going to ground a tad too easy when in open field) and forced (inconsistent apps, poor MLS coaching). His first touch and ball control also not the best, seems rushed. However, all that said... he finds a way. On the reserve league level last year he tore it up by notching a goal about every 90 minutes. When he was hot - he was hot. Three games he had a brace and one other with a hat trick. To top that off he managed to also get a goal against FA Cup winners Wigan Athletic in a exhibition last summer.

A different player, but just as Vidda Grubin mentioned about Justin Meram a couple weeks ago, Ryan Finley can score goals. He's did it in college to an almost absurd degree, with the Crew Reserves and had decent success in his limited time getting a start on the senior team. There is nothing to tell us that he won't keep that going this year with Dayton in the 3rd tier of US soccer.

Others loaned to Dayton for the time being are newcomers Ross Friedman, Matt Walker and Brad Stuver. Kevan George has also been sent out but, like Finley, is looking to prove himself having been in the league for a couple years.

Early Crew Goal, Mins Projection

Any player, when given enough time, can score goals. When your looking at how many goals a team might score a good place to start is how many minutes any given player might get.

Team watchers should be able to look up and down the current Columbus Crew roster and come to some pretty solid conclusions as to how many minutes players will be getting. I did this last year with a reasonable amount of success.

Here's how my projections looked on a positional level:

POSITION : PROJECTED, ACTUAL : DIFF
MIDFIELD : 14,6 : -8 (Gaven)
FORWARDS : 30,29 : -1
DEFENDERS : 4,6 : 2

From a goal scoring perspective, Gaven's injury really set the team back but even with him the 2013 Crew were just not equipped to get enough into the back of the net.

What I did last year was just plug in expected per 90 goal outputs based on past performance. This year I've done the same.

So the big question is, do they have enough this year?

2014 GOALS : NAME : EXPECTED MINS
8 : Dominic Oduro : 3000
8 : Federico Higuain : 3000
7 : Jairo Arrieta : 2000
6 : Bernardo Anor : 2500
4 : Daniel Paladini : 1500
3 : Josh Williams : 3000
2 : Ryan Finley : 1000
2 : Tony Tchani : 2500
1 : Justin Meram : 500
1 : Ben Speas : 1000
1 : Aaron Schoenfeld : 500

0 : Agustin Viana : 1500
0 : Wil Trapp : 2500
0 : Chad Barson : 2000
0 : Ethan Finlay : 500
0 : Eric Gehrig : 1000
0 : Tyson Wahl : 1200
0 : Kevan George : 500
0 : Matt Lampson : 0
0 : Brad Stuver : 0
0 : Steven Clark : 3000
0 : Waylon Francis : 1500
0 : Daniel Withrow : 0
0 : Shawn Sloan : 0
0 : Matt Wiet : 0

This works out to be around 43 goals as the team is built right now. There are too many players that have to achieve above what I think they are capable of in order for the team to get get over the magic number of 50 goals on the season (playoff level).

SOME NOTES, RISKS

• ONE GIVER: Dominic Oduro and Jairo Arrieta are going to be sharing key passes from Higuain. There is only one Federico on the pitch at a time.

• BROKEN RECORD: I'm in pre-season year two of saying Meram can get goals and be dangerous. The will need him this year, but the question remains; will they use him?

• MF: Goals (or threat of goals) are still missing from the midfield.

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FINAL THOUGHT ON EARLY GOAL ANALYSIS

Gregg Berhalter is going to have to be patient and stand by some tough early season lineups because it's looking like the key to this season isn't players like Oduro, Arrieta or Higuain.. they will get their stats, it's about the other guys. The role players. They are are going to be the key to the 2014 season.

They happen to also be the biggest unknown though.