Crew Rd 25, Pinned Down and Beaten

The Columbus Crew could do nothing to stop Real Salt Lake last night.

1ST HALF
Crew Head Coach Robert Warzycha came out in what was his primary and preferred dual defensive mid lineup last night in clear attempt to get at least a point. Danny O'Rourke and Wil Trapp will given the unfortunate task there.

On the RSL side we save Jason Kreis come out with is somewhat familiar diamond midfield with Kyle Beckerman at CDM and both Devon Sandoval and Olmes Garcia up top.

With two CDM's clogging the middle RSL found it very easy to get wide and retain possession all through the first half. RSL was getting corner after corner and free kicks around the box with ease.

The only thing the Crew were successful at was keeping RSL out of the goal. That is until the first one came right at the end of the first half.

Chad Marshall gave up a free kick via handball right outside the 18 yd box. Kyle Beckerman took the shot that deflected off Wil Trapp (lined up in the wall) then took a second deflection off Javier Morales for a goal. Crew defender Chad Barson was lined up behind Morales.

2ND HALF
No changes from the Crew meant the onslaught continued. The inevitable goal that fans on both sides saw coming from miles away happened off an easy cross and goal right in front of GK Matt Lampson.

Even up by two, RSL kept pressing Columbus. Even going as far as making a offensive minded substitution around the hour mark by bring in Robbie Findley (six goals on the year).

Warzycha appeared to be caught off guard and completely over reacted by bringing on not one but TWO fresh holding midfielders in his son Konrad Warzycha and a out of form Tony Tchani.

The changes changed nothing. RSL ended up scoring two more goals from the run of play in the last 10 minutes.

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GAME THOUGHTS

Yesterday, in my game preview, I said the Crew would go back into their shell. They did. I also said that doing so would jam up Federico Higuain. It did.

Ever been in a fight and been pinned down or held by another as punches came your way? If I can predict these simple minded tactics then sure as hell Jason Kreis can - and he did. What RSL did was the equivalent of sitting of the chest of the Crew, knees on their shoulders pinning the arms down and pounding the ever-living daylights out of them.

Shortly before the game started the Crew Digital Content Producer tweeted out the following: "FOUR... Count them, FOUR Homegrowns in the XI for #Crew96 tonight: Lampson, Barson, Trapp, Speas."

In a game like this, where you are playing one of the three best teams in the league - at their place - when they are at full strength... you take your warriors. Your fighters. Not four inexperienced local kids with little to no league experience on the road.

The Crew have now lost six straight on the road. Goes without saying, but worst in the league.

By the end of the match you saw some (the fighters) on the Crew visibly frustrated. Dominic Oduro on a late tackle, Josh Williams should barging a player 10 feet out of bounds and Higuain just playing coming unglued (and picking up two more yellow cards, suspending him for at least one game).

Inexperienced players making up half the starting lineup and employing a tactic that has not worked all year.

I don't get it. I really don't.

Predictions: Crew (A) v RSL

Good Morning,

The Crew play away to Real Salt Lake today. Kickoff is at 9:30 PM EST, 7:30 MDT.

GAME NOTES:
-CLB: Lost 5 straight on the road
-CLB: Worst 6 game road form in MLS
-CLB: Anor, Meram Out (starters in last 2 wins)
-RSL: 4-1-1 +7 GD in last 6
-RSL: Rimando, Beckerman, Saborio should be in lineup
-RSL: Only two loses at Rio Tinto this year.

GAME PREDICTIONS
(In no particular order)

1. WV HOOLIGAN ... RSL
"RSL looks to get back on track here as they pursue the Supporters’ Shield trophy". Drew Epperley's prediction: RSL 3, Columbus 1.

2. BET365 ... RSL
Strong odds for Real Salt Lake today at 3/5 (Draw 14/5, Crew 19/4).

3. COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... (lean) RSL
The tone of Adam Jardy's "How it might play out" summary certainly suggests that RSL is the team to beat tonight but he does mention the fact that RSL have played three games in seven days. Pick up a paper if you are in town. If you are out of town? Good luck on navigating this paper's website.

4. TABLE ... RSL

5. HOME TEAM ... RSL

6. MLSSOCCER.COM ... RSL
Real Salt Lake across the board. "Armchair Analyst" Matt Doyle still leading the way over there (111 of 230 correct, picking result).

7. GOAL.COM ... CREW
Surprising one line summary from regular Keith Hickey today... "RSL will have to overcome history and the hot foot of Federico Higuain to stay comfortable in first place." On top of that and for the first time all year there is a actual preview write up of the match. Reader prediction has RSL 68%.

8. WINDRAWWIN.COM ... RSL
Large Stake on Home Win, 2-0 and the 'your votes' section is heavy RSL (56%). Crew only getting 12% of the vote.

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MY GAME THOUGHTS

Can't stop looking at this pic.

Despite recent success at Rio Tinto, it's gonna be a tough one for the Crew tonight. Not having Bernardo Anor in the lineup (fatigue) is likely going to force Robert Warzycha back into his two holding mid shell.

If that's the case then Federico Higuain (scorer of all four goals in last two wins) will go back to being jammed up and chasing the game.

Real Salt Lake is a good team this year. A very good team. And they will be hungry tonight to stay in the race for 1st place in the league now that we are in the home stretch.

Personally, I really, really which Anor was in this lineup and the Crew were facing them as an in form side because a win would sell me on how good this team can (could've) be (been).

Later start tonight allows me some time to catch afternoon show of "The World's End". Pretty excited about that.

Enjoy the game.

KRAMB Score, Updated (surprises)

It's been a few games since I've posted updated KRAMB for Crew players (Pts Earned per Start above replacement level* + Goal Difference per Start) and boy are there some changes.

Justin Meram has crossed the magical five game barrier and has found himself on top of the team. Six total starts. Three wins, two draws and only one loss. I'd be lying if I said I saw this one coming.

Last year Meram was a 'super-sub' of sorts (+7 goal diff) with a bad starting record (won't go there). I'd also be remiss if I didn't mention that two of the three wins he has this year have been against Toronto. But then... A win and draw against NY plus another draw against the Dynamo? I'll say; well earned overall.

Here we go.

KRAMB : NAME (NUMBER OF STARTS)

+0.79 : Justin Meram (6)
+0.71 : Agustín Viana (12)
+0.69 : Eddie Gaven (10)
+0.29 : Wil Trapp (6)
+0.25 : Dominic Oduro (24)
+0.19 : Bernardo Anor (10)
+0.15 : Joshua Williams (22)
+0.04 : Chad Marshall (20)
+0.02 : Gláuber Berti (13)

-0.01 : Chad Barson (10)
-0.13 : Federico Higuaín (24)
-0.15 : Danny O´Rourke (17)
-0.21 : Jairo Obando Arrieta (13)
-0.32 : Ben Speas (9)
-0.34 : Tyson Wahl (16)
-0.35 : Tony Tchani (7)
-0.41 : Andy Gruenebaum (20)
-0.91 : Matías Sánchez (10)

NOT ENOUGH GAMES (<5)

+1.79 : Matt Lampson (4)
+0.79 : Aaron Schoenfeld (2)
-0.21 : Konrad Warzycha (2)
-0.46 : Eric Gehrig (4)
-1.54 : Kevan George (3)

Other changes that are driving KRAMB change are Matt Lampson starting. The results he has gotten as starter have pulled Gruenebaum way down the list.

However.

Lampson is a little untested. He is a local kid about to be thrown into the fire out west against Real Salt Lake. Three of his four starts have been close to home. The one away match he has had was a disaster against Houston. Well see how things go in SLC.

Another player driving results in regards to this measurement is Wil Trapp. Some of the folks I know closest to the club say he is the real deal. Like Lampson, he is getting the results near home. Notable is the loss he started away in Toronto and in Houston. All three of his wins (Portland, New York and Toronto) have been in Columbus.

Agustin Viana's return the lineup, while understated, is probably the most reliable indicator of a individual player contributing to recent team performance. Having him healthy and starting at a critical Left Back spot has certainly helped the team.

All I got for now. Remember: numbers don't lie. Trust the numbers. Also... understand what it is you are looking at.

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*Replacement level is what a average player on the team will theoretically give you, team average (0.00).

2 New MR Posts, Notes

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1. FIVE 2013 CREW MISTAKES

This one started off as a sort of running postmortem commentary on the season I wanted to get out of my head. It's been both a fascinating and disappointing season for the Columbus Crew.

Focusing on mistakes is only part of a postmortem assessment but it is the most important. A critical assessment of performance, no matter what, is vital to success. For the past 36 months the Columbus Crew have had their head buried in the sand and that is playing out in results.

It's also resulted in the hasty sale of this MLS Franchise to an outsider. Most telling thing to me so far? I get excited and can't wait to crack open a $60 dollar video game. Anthony Precourt bought the team for $68 million... And how much time has he spent in Columbus? How many games has he been to?

Always, always, always look at mistakes as a way to get better.

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2. CREW PLAYER RATINGS, WHOSCORED.COM

One of these days I'll get Massive Report's Patrick Guldan to start doing his player ratings again. Until then, all I have is what the folks at WhoScored.com put together.

I decided to summarize them in box plot form because I like to look at consistency of performance. Overall, for the sport of soccer, I think it is important. For Major League Soccer teams? You can't live without it.

One of the things I liked about Chris Anderson and David Sally's book "The Numbers Game" is when they talk on improving the weakest link as vital. In MLS, improving your weakest spot is probably the most important things because of the scarcity of top talent (self inflicted by MLS with Designated player rules and team 'budgets').

Using rating systems like WhoScored.com gives fans a good starting point for determining which players are doing well and which are not. What's great about the site beyond the ratings is the fact that they also have all the Opta data.

Anyhow, go give 'em a read.

Crew Rd 24, Compendious Victory

The Crew never looked like they would lose this one. Toronto never looked like they could win.

1ST HALF
The pace of this game was enjoyable. Not too fast, not too slow and the Crew were creating good chances.

One such chance ended in a goal off a Chad Barson cross and Bernardo Anor shot that rebounded for Federico Higuain in the 18th minute.

Columbus kept the pressure up on Toronto from there and were successful at breaking up anything they were trying to build in the midfield.

2ND HALF
It became clear the Toronto were trying to get something going by controlling the match through possession. In fact it seemed as if they were more interesting in that then trying to create the off chance on goal through some Crew mistake.

Because of that, the game remained more fluid and enjoyable. It also finally allowed for players with superior footballing talents to shine a bit more brightly. Case in point was Federico Higuain.

Higuain was able to find yards of space around the box all evening and in the 67th minute dropped a sinker over the reach of the Toronto GK Joe Bendik.

With Danny O'Rourke having come on the the minute before, Higuain's goal sealed it for the Crew. Toronto played as a beaten team and only got off two shots from there.

GAME OVER, THOUGHTS
• That wasn't your typical Toronto team out there last night. They tried to maintain possession and they were not hacking players down every other pass (Toronto is not alone in this tactic).

• It was Columbus that was doing all the fouling (17 Crew, 7 TFC).

• Higuain has three open play goals in two games. It has been a long time since any Crew player has done that.

• With Arrieta up top and Anor in the middle, Higuain is playing more like the player Crew fans expect and more to his talent level, frankly.

• This was the most watchable Columbus Crew game of the year for me.

Predictions: Crew (H) v Toronto

There is a soccer match tonight at Crew Stadium as the Major League Soccer franchises from Ohio (USA) and Ontario (Canada) fight for Great Lake Erie Superiority (GLES). Kickoff is at 7:30 PM EST or 11:30 PM GMT.

GAME NOTES
-CLB: Home form last six = 13th in MLS
-CLB: less than 3% chance of making playoffs, trying new things
-CLB: GK Gruenebuam likely out again.
-TFC: Away form last six = 8th in MLS
-TFC: Getting better but trying new things

GAME PREDICTIONS
(In no particular order)

1. MLSSOCCER.COM ... TORONTO FC
In a bit of a surprise the Pick 'em team thinks that TFC will take this one. 4 of 6 saying so (1 Crew, 1 draw).

2. WV HOOLIGAN ... COLUMBUS CREW
Drew Epperley likes the Crew straight up, "...no surprises here as they win a rivalry game at home." Crew 2:0 Reds

3. BET 365 ... COLUMBUS CREW
Home team getting better than even odds today (8/11) followed up with 5/2 draw and 4/1 TFC. Two most likely scorelines are 1:0 Crew and 1:1 draw.

4. TABLE POSITION ... COLUMBUS CREW

5. GOAL.COM ... COLUMBUS CREW (LEAN)
Whoa.(!)? The author of the one line summary isn't listed today (my money is on Hickey though). Whomever it might be, they like the Crew... "Columbus snapped a losing streak last week and will be looking to build on that win with another against TFC." Lower down the column sees fans picking the Crew to win (50%).

6. HOME TEAM ... COLUMBUS CREW

7. WIN DRAW WIN ... DRAW
A little different here today. Large Stake is on a 1:1 draw and the Your Vote section follows suit as draw gets 41% majority. Columbus 26% and Toronto 31%.

8. DISPATCH ... COLUMBUS CREW (LEAN)
"The Crew is 0-4-2 after a victory this season, and Toronto seems to be the type of team to help end such a streak." - Man on the Crew beat, Adam Jardy.

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GAME THOUGHTS
I was thinking about adding form as one of the game predictors but decided against it (for now). Biggest reason is that the Crew have not won two games in a row since the middle of last year. They are now far and away leading the league in this very simple fact and that sort of overrides any short term form, right now.

Toronto was with them but they finally crossed that bridge three weeks ago. In fact, TFC have two wins and a draw in their last four. That puts them above the Crew as far as recent form.

So, form = TFC? Not really. Only one team in MLS is in road form right now. Sporting KC 11 pts / 6 games is tops then RSL with 10 in 6. Everyone else is below 8pts in 6.

Tonight is good opportunity for the Crew before they take their league worst road form (1 pt in last 6 games. Have allowed 15 goals and carry a -8 goal difference) on the road next week.

Anyhow, the above is why I'm not adding form to my list.

On to the match: Not looking for many changes to the Crew lineup this week. We'll probably see same formation as well with Trapp at the CDM and Anor playing the CM spot. There is a possibility that fans see Speas jump in over Meram, I guess. Otherwise it will be the regulars in Higuain, Arrieta, Oduro, Barson, Williams, Marshall and Viana rounding it out.

The lineup is fine. I think Oduro should be a weapon used coming off the bench if the team is down at the hour mark but it'll never happen. As it stands, the Crew don't really have anybody to bring on the shake it up in the middle and Ryan Finley is extremely green.

The Crew are built to jump up by a goal and then defend it through shear number of defensive players on the squad, if that goes off plan the team has trouble.

Tonight's game will be jumpy, choppy and foul riddled. Most matches involving the Crew are this way now. TFC only makes the preceding statement more likely. There is not sugar coating this game. It is a match between two teams way down the table.

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Less jumpy, choppy and foul riddled were the games filling up my screens this morning. Welcome back Premier League.

Billy Sasquatch, Master English Breakfast Chef.

Conan, Oliver Stone and the Crew Reserves

The Crew and Impact reserves met up a day after the 2:0 victory by the senior team on June 15th. They wound up losing 1:0 but standing there on a cool damp Sunday morning in Obetz watching a bunch of players working their tails off for practically nothing gets your mind going.

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A couple years ago I decided that I was going to jump all in on the Crew. I wanted a team to follow and look at analytically and critically to see if I could apply some of the manufacturing tools I was learning at the time to something outside the industry. No time table was set as I wanted to follow for as long as the fire burns hot enough.

This sort of brings me back to the image above and to something Oliver Stone said during an interview for a documentary about the making of Conan the Barbarian (the 1982 one, Stone was a writer).

The interview was done during the peak of Stone's powers and long after Conan The Barbarian came out. I remember wondering why he would be taking the time to talk about this movie. Turns out he loved it. He wanted to make twelve of them. Difficult to explain but it was refreshing to hear a movie I loved as a kid being loved by a giant in the industry. I had expected the complete opposite from him.

Robert E. Howard

During the interview he told a great story he knew about the creator of Conan, Robert E. Howard. He said that when Howard got tired of writing or near exhaustion and wanting to quit he would imagine Conan standing behind him with a battleaxe, waiting to split him in two if he got up from his desk.

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There is something dense, raw and complex occurring at these Crew reserve matches that I like. In a lot of ways it is competition her most basic sports form. It's a chance for a fringe player get promoted to the senior team or a wilting vet finding himself after a bad string of 1st team matches.

There is a sharp type of energy that you only find where failure means ruin and success means riches ("riches" in quotes for most in MLS).

I've been to a few reserve games at the Obetz training facility and can't help but imagine imagine the Nordecke in all her glory ghosted in north east corner. Larger than life. Louder than bombs. Urging the players on in the same the fear of ruin and lust for glory that kept Robert E. Howard tied to his desk.

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Here's some Basil Poledouris to listen to.

"We are just men, not gods, not giants, just men. And the secret of steel has always carried with it a mystery. You must learn its riddle, you must learn its discipline, for no one, no one in this world can you trust, not men, not women, not beasts... This you can trust."

Talking, Thinking (podcast)

New Massive Report podcast tonight where a lot of Crew topics were covered. I've been to a number of these now and on of the things I've come to enjoy is the conversation off mic between segments.

Tonight was a good one and I think most of that 'between segment' banter was captured. One of the things that might not have been fully covered was the discussion on how well Ryan Finley has shown himself this year. Particularly in the Houston game last week.

Give it a listen if you have the time. Dan Bidmead of UK MLSsoccer.com is in town and talks. Fun. Crew.

Crew Rd 23, Win at Home

Federico Higuain puts on a great show as the Columbus Crew take down a NY Red Bulls team who were missing a couple of their brightest stars and head coach.

1ST HALF
With only one defensive mid in Wil Trapp and Bernardo Anor playing in the central attacking mid role the Columbus Crew opened up play in a way normally only seen in team reserve matches this year.

It might have been a little wasteful and no goals were scored but the Crew kept NY on their back foot most of the first half.

2ND HALF
Started out looking much like the first. It was clear that the absence of head coach Mike Petke meant the Red Bulls were going to keep it simple and defensive minded.

That changed in the 62nd minute with Jamison Olave committed a foul in the box on a restart. Federico Higuain stepped up and converted, putting the Crew up 1:0.

The game got a little more interesting from there as NY started venturing forward more. Unfortunately for them Peguy Luyindula and Ibrahim Sekagya (new signing) are no Thierry Henry and Tim Cahill.

Later, in the 76th minute, a bit of magic from Higuain as he chipped / dropped an amazingly skillful shot over the head of the NY goalkeeper.

The game sort of died from there.

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GAME OVER, THOUGHTS
• Higuain has been trying to hit a goal like his second one all season. He finally got it. Surprisingly, only his 2nd goal outside of penalties this year.

• NY was crippled without Thierry Henry, Tim Cahill, Kosuke Kimura, Lloyd Sam or coach Mike Petke in this game. All are listed as injured but really only Kimura was legit for this game. Were Columbus in NY; Henry, Cahill and Sam would have played.

• Columbus has developed somewhat of a reputation with star players. They don't make the trip. It's a unique issue that new owner Anthony Precourt will have to work out.

• The extra midfielder freed up Higuain like most team watchers expected. Bernardo Anor had a great game in the CAM role. He was giving new Red Bull Sekagya fits. Last night was one of Higuain's best games in a Crew uniform and a lot of that had to do with Anor in the middle (and Arrieta up top).

• NY's bench was very thin last night. Their subs; Akpan, Bover, Obekop have a combined 305 league minutes after last night.

• Wil Trapp had a splendid game. Not sure how else to describe it but I think splendid covers it. It's one of those performances that are fun to watch but get even better the next day when mulling over stats. 66 total passes and only four off the mark (94%). He plays within himself and all four of his misplaced passes were going forward but that one he connected on to Higuain for his goal worked.

• Crew are not making the playoffs so watching Trapp for this rest of this year will be one of the things to look forward too. Where does this leave Sanchez? Not sure. It could very well be that just the face the Crew were playing with one DM is what freed Trapp up and that Sanchez would have done just as well.

• Last night was the first game Precourt attended as owner of the Crew. He did a halftime interview on the Fox Sports broadcast where he looked like he was having fun as the owner of a pro sports team.