The Ides of March

Columbus Business First's article "Columbus Crew sponsorship's, season ticket sales up" reminded me of something Chris LaMacchia brought up a few weeks ago on the Massive Report podcast. During it, Chris made a point in that Mark McCullers hyper optimism about this year isn't so much about what McCullers actually thinks the team can achieve but more about pushing Head Coach Robert Warzycha towards something better than mediocrity.

HYPER OPTIMISM, PRODUCT TO SELL

“Our sales staff is as strong as it’s ever been, and our culture here is great. The Goal 10K campaign has also really resonated. We've got a great message and product to sell.” - Mark McCullers

It's not uncommon to hear a sports team referred to as a 'product' in any US based sports league. NFL uses it the most these days, it seems. But that doesn't mean it isn't slightly grating each time I hear it.

McCullers use of the word product resonated more with me this time though. Perhaps late and perhaps naively, but it dawned on me that it's not getting the base behind him as much as it is him pushing for as many ticket sales as possible by using the tried and true sales push that boxing and wrestling promoters use.

"Obviously, if we can do that then the road to MLS Cup could come through Columbus. The MLS Cup could be in Columbus. I believe we're going to have that caliber of team. I really do." - McCullers, to MLSsoccer.com

There's nothing wrong with this. After all, the name of the game is to get butts in seats (or benches, as it is). There is a line though. McCullers is President and GM, not a sales person.

How much hype is too much hype?

In the article it says that ticket sales are up, sponsorship's are up, and corporate box sales are up along with the hype.

Eventually the fight will be over and the scorecards read, though. What happens if the Crew are a mediocre club again? What happens if they are actually worse? These are the two cases that are worst case. What then, though. Will the fans turn on the team?

With the recent comments about Crew Stadium being at a crossroads, these optimistic comments take on tinge of desperation.

As if McCullers, after looking at his hand, let out a small sigh... Tilts his head back and finishes what rotgut is left in his glass. With the air in the room thick with fear and feeling the weight of the situation - he pushes the small strune about stack of his chips to the middle of the table and quietly says; 'I'm all in'.

Just as he says those three game changing words the camera pans back to revel that he is the only one at the table.

MR Post: Conf Round Up

Have a new post up over at Massive Report that runs down MLS Rd 2 happenings across the Eastern Conference. Going to keep it going all year, hopefully each week.

Highlights this week
Montreal winning on the road again, New England Revs beating Chicago away

Lowlights
Chicago, The SkyDome and NASR picking Toronto's Earnshaw as player of the week.

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I'm fascinated with Montreal this year.
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Check the post out. In other Massive Report news, I'm planning on heading over to Hendoc's this Monday to see if I can get back on the podcast, been tied up recently. In the meantime listen to the one they recorded last night.

I've got a couple things cookin' so keep checking Massive Report every hour on the hour (I'll probably be writing Wednesday and Thursday evenings so, Thursday I guess).

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Here's full header art/illustration. All the photos were taken by Anne-Marie Sorvin for USA Today Sports. They are really excellent. Check out her other work too.

I felt like she was shooting portraits more than a sporting event and was drawn to the images. I think all of these were taken pre-game, their eyes tell a story.

Thanks for reading.

Crew Rd 2: Loss to Vancouver

Columbus falls 1:2 in Vancouver.

1ST HALF
Well. It didn't take long. A bad exchange between Dominic Oduro and Danny O'Rourke in the 5th minute was punished. Darren Mattocks gathered the ball off the mistake, feed it to Daigo Kobayashi who struck a beautiful ball for 35 yards out that beat Andy Gruenebaum.

From there the Crew looked much like they did last week at Chivas USA. Spells of decent possession followed by errors leading to easy chances for the opposition.

2ND HALF
Crew tied it back up right off the halftime start. Josh Williams found Ben Speas who slotted it over to Jairo Arrieta for a quick goal to knot it up. Didn't last long though as another questionable exchange between Andy Gruenebaum and Glauber was pounced on by Vancouver's Kenny Miller and scored.

The final half hour saw lots of chances for both sides but none finished.

GAME NOTES
- Matias Sanchez saw his first MLS action when he was subbed on in the 70th minute. Sanchez couldn't seem to find the flow of the match but the expectation is that he will in time.
- Tony Tchani made up the other part of what turned out to be a questionable double substitution with Sanchez.
- Ben Speas played well filling in for an injured Eddie Gaven. Speas was involved in most of the positive attacking Crew chances.
- Again, Dominic Oduro is not a midfielder. His decision making with the ball in the middle third is poor. His side was the weaker one on the field. A Josh Williams / Ben Speas right side might be worth a look.
- Federico Higuain was bottled up most of the evening but still provided some of the best chances for the Crew off his set piece deliveries.
- Higuain is still winless and goal-less against top half of the table type clubs (going back to last year).
- Columbus hosts San Jose for their first home game of the season this upcoming weekend.

Crew Round 2 Predictions

Good Morning,

Columbus Crew take on Vancouver Whitecaps at BC Place tonight on their legendary Polytan LigaTurf 240 RS+ surface. Game starts at a reasonable 7:30 PM Eastern or 4:30 PM Whitecap time.

GAME NOTES
• BC Place is an indoor soccer field that occasionally gets played on by a CFL team (and must get damp) so parts of the field looked worn and rusted in places.
• Did you know that playing on a fake field virtually eliminates sliding tackles?
• Nigel Reo-Coker should feature tonight for the Whitecaps
• Matias Sanchez might see his first MLS minutes tonight for Danny O'Rourke (usually sits out fake field games)
• Vancouver looked as rusty as their field in last weeks 1st half against Toronto but found a rhythm in the 2nd.

PREDICTIONS

The betting sites are leaning towards Vancouver in this one. Bet365 has VAN 5/4, Draw 23/10 and Crew 11/5.

Odds aggregate site Win Draw Win's fairly accurate 'your vote' section shows the edge to VAN with 41% going their way and only 23% for the Crew.

Drew Epperley, who was correct about last weekends Crew win (confidently) has the Whitecaps this weekend, 2:1 over the Crew. "I think the two week trip on the West coast ends up costing Columbus points in the end though, even though I like where they are headed." Well said.

The 'Pick 'em' bunch over at MLSsoccer seem a bit torn this week but slight edge to Vancouver. 3 votes 'Caps, 2 Crew and 1 draw.

Goal.com's fan vote is leaning pretty heavily towards Vancouver this week. 61.5% of the vote going to them as of this writing.

Patrick Guldan at Massive Report see's the outcome of this one as a Draw.

Adam Jardy of the Dispatch seems to be leaning draw based on time on the road and the stiffer challenge Vancouver will provide as compared to Chivas USA. Pick up today's paper, Sports Section page... C11(?geeze).

MY THOUGHTS

After being just slightly favored last week, Columbus appears to be pretty heavy underdogs this week. It's for good reason as they have been on the road for a while. Keep in mind that they were also in Florida for all of February as well.

What will matter is whether enough players have enough fight left in them or are they ready to be back in Columbus.

What also matters is the playing surface. Speed is a huge factor on turf because nobody wants strawberries on their hips from slide tackles. Expect Crew defenders to get bumpy off the ball with a few of the attacking Whitecap players.

I would say a Draw here for the Crew is enough and probably what Warzycha has in mind. Both teams have a good amount of individual talent so a wonky crusty surface bounce might be all it takes for either team to win.

FM 13 Crew Update

Football Manager's recent update included the latest MLS rosters. Below is a screenshot of the club with a few choice categories. It might sound a little strange to use FM to help further understand your club but it really isn't.

Would I do it were I to follow a larger club in a larger league? Probably not because there is so much info out there elsewise. But for MLS? It's a goldmine. These guys that work on this game spend more time on MLS players than MLS does.

Here's the goods on the Crew:



Starting left to right.

No big surprises on the Salary and Value front. It's mostly correct. MLS Players Union officially releases wages in April.

Moving further right are all the traits I think are valuable to Major League Soccer only. 'CAUSE THERE'S SOCCER. THEN THERE IS MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER.

Agg : Aggression
Bra : Bravery
Cre : Creativity
Tea : Team Work
Wor : Work Rate
Pos : Positioning
Nat : Natural Ability
Str : Strength
Mar : Marking
Tac : Tactical Awareness
Pas : Passing

Click on the image to enlarge. Fun stuff. I'll be putting this club through the paces this weekend. Game theory, y'all. Invaluably undervalued in the real world.

7121

The Chivas USA home opener at the Home Depot Center had a historically low turnout and the Crew are part to blame.

The official attendance number of "7,121" garnered the attention of a number of independent soccer writers. In fact Grant Wahl, arguably the most well known US soccer voice, tweeted out there that the number was probably half the 7121 reported.

For a league that sees itself challenging the worlds best in a decade's time you bet this is an issue. MLS Commissioner Don Garber has already addressed it by stating that he will check back to see if it is still a problem in June/July.

But is this a Chivas USA problem? Perhaps it is a scheduling problem? Even a Crew problem? A little bit of all the above?

PREDICTION: DROP IN MLS TICKET SALES, 2013

Major League Soccer is looking down the barrel of a year over year loss in ticket sales. For years now the league has been touting incredible growth. Most of that growth was due to the expansion in teams. Think of it the same way that McDonald's or Walmart measure growth. As long as they are expanding, they are growing the top line.

There are even an expanding number of former sharp independent voices joining the MLS choir to prove the soul sucking Walmart/Target expansion wins theory of successful brick and mortar business.

For a professional sports league that dabbles in the dark arts of a single entity system they seem acutely unaware that at some point the expansion has to stop. For other North American based leagues it is around 30 teams. MLS seems to think 20-24 is a good number. This means expansion is going to slow and the last few spots are going to be smartly chosen (at least as smartly as Don Garber thinks he is).

This year marks the first year in a few that the league isn't growing. Teams are the same as last year. With that in mind, here is attendance numbers from the first 9 games last year as compared to this year:

2012 : 183,182
2013 : 174,696

That's about a -5% drop over last year. Take out Seattle from both years and it is closer to a -7% drop.

THE CREW

It's no secret that Garber wants to see improvement in Columbus as far as ticket sales. He even kicked off a "Dare to be Massive" sales campaign last year here in town. It helped bring attendance back up from the wilderness of record lows in 2011 - but certainly not back to even the middle of the league in 2012.

This year will likely be more of the same for Columbus in terms of gate. 13-15k a home game seems about right. That's not a bad thing. Games are enjoyable. The stadium is great, plenty of space. Friendly atmosphere. But for a league that has ambitions of leading the world? Far from lofty expectations.

AWAY ATTENDANCE

How the team draws away is important. Last year the Crew 13th in away aggregate ticket sales (slightly better than the 14th for home sales).

2012 Aggregate Draw Away : Team

459,436 : Los Angeles

337,001 : San Jose
335,088 : Portland Timbers
333,635 : Chicago
333,445 : Toronto FC
333,221 : Real Salt Lake
322,058 : Philadelphia Union
321,769 : Vancouver Whitecaps

314,842 : Kansas City
314,189 : New York Red Bulls
312,595 : Colorado
310,014 : DC United

302,712 : Columbus
300,984 : FC Dallas
293,116 : Houston
291,203 : New England
288,609 : Chivas USA
285,955 : Montreal Impact
283,567 : Seattle Sounders FC

The same teams seem to show up at the bottom no matter how you slice the data. Crew, Dallas, New England, Chivas. Interesting to seem Montreal and Seattle* at the bottom, but then again; This is a league obsessed with growth. Not many fans in away cities care about new teams. Regardless, the bottom part of the league is not a group you want your name in but yet the Crew are there.

Low attendance in a league unhealthily obsessed with ticket sales is a reality the Crew are going to have to live with for now.

14464

Chivas USA pulled 14,464 at the Home Depot Center last year during opening weekend when the faced Houston. Double what the Chivas/Crew pulled this year.

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*[UPDATED: Seattle is low because they cannot play themselves away. They inflate everyone's numbers. If you take out Seattle from each team's away draw it looks like this:

359,526 : Los Angeles
333,635 : Chicago
314,189 : New York Red Bulls
310,014 : DC United
294,736 : Toronto FC
291,203 : New England
285,955 : Montreal Impact
283,659 : Philadelphia Union
283,567 : Seattle Sounders FC
268,636 : Portland Timbers
267,910 : Kansas City
266,051 : Vancouver Whitecaps
264,401 : Columbus
262,229 : FC Dallas
259,752 : San Jose
255,553 : Real Salt Lake
254,812 : Houston
249,675 : Chivas USA
235,175 : Colorado

This is really interesting because what you are left with without Seattle's CenturyLink attendance is big population centers which means, for example, former Chicagoan's living in a new city must have or retain a connection with the team.

Also, the numbers don't jump as much with out the Sounder effect. Also, the LA drop without SEA. They must love them some Becks up there.]

More Posts. Maps + Round Up

Some new stuff over at Massive Report. Content and art.

My last post there dropped each Major League Soccer player into a executable type map. I thought it was fun. It keeps things in perspective. The art is a satellite image of Buenos Aires. Higuainland. I took part of the Argentinian flag and included it in the Crew logo on the top right. I liked the map colors.



Earlier I did a summary on the first weekend of the year. I liked a Glauber Berti pic that was simply credited as "USA Today". I cropped in and made b/w. Same thing I wish the Columbus Dispatch did more often because they rarely get their color registration correct.



Winter Storm here in Columbus right now... 'The snow is falling and I'm gone!' a good man once sang. Lots more soon.

RD1: Win, Couple Late Goals

Crew take care of Chivas in LA.

1ST HALF -
Outside of a couple clear changes Chivas should have buried it was an uninspiring first half for both teams. Columbus did seem to have the upper hand most of it but the game seemed to settle into a indeterminate mush by halftime. As a matter of fact it felt like halftime had arrived at 35 minutes the way the players were strolling around.

Which raises the question; Why was an eastern time zone team playing a night game out west on opening day? Was the league trying to make sure Chivas USA filled the stadium? Attendance was listed at 7100 fans. Hard to believe it would have been much less had it been played in the afternoon in LA.

2ND HALF --
Things burst into life in the 55th minute when Federico Higuain curled in a beautiful shot from 25 yards. From there both teams seem to find some added enthusiasm for the match.

Juan Agudelo and Miller Bolaños entrances into the game allowed Chivas to press forward and look more dangerous but finishing quality was severely lacking. Eventually they couldn't find the equalizer and let a couple late goals get by that pushed the scoreline to a misleading 3:0.

CREW NOTES ---



• Crew backline made a number of mistakes throughout the evening. Chivas missed a couple they should have put away midway through the first half. Crew dodged disaster there.

• Higuain seemed to be in mini battles with a couple different players all evening. There was much ankle kicking and retaliation.

• The Josh Williams volley off a late corner pretty incredible. Swinging his leg across his body like that and redirecting perfectly to the opposite corner through traffic. Not a fluke. He had one similar in the preseason. He's clearly put in tons of work.

• Dominic Oduro's goal in the 3rd min of extra time was his thing and well done. Other than that though... he's not a midfielder.

• The Crew are staying out west this week (instead of flying back) and taking on Vancouver March 9th, 730 PM eastern.. Curiously; Justin Meram and Eric Gehrig did not make the trip.

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MASSIVE REPORT
Say tuned to Massive Report for more news and analysis on the Crew.

Rd 1: Chivas USA, Crew Notes

Crew opens the season tonight in LA verse Chivas USA. On late, EST. Not so bad if you happen to be west of the Mississippi.

GAME NOTES:

• Chivas had a result positive preseason. Signature win was 3:0 over Colorado on Feb 15 (starters). Good couple of results vs. Gangwon FC as well.
• Crew's preseason went really well early on and for developing players.
• Crew tied Chivas 0:0 last time they met in LA way back in Apr 9th, 2011.
• Reported in this morning's Columbus Dispatch that Chad Marshall has been relieved of responsibilities of Team Captain (everyone who plays FM just cringed)
• No captain for 2013 has been named yet.
• Milovan Mirosevic wore the armband a couple times last year.

HOW IT MIGHT DO

Looks like the Crew have the slight edge with odds makers out there, surprising to some it's not more perhaps.

Win Draw Win has the edge to CLB 35%, Draw 32% and Chivas 32% in voting with a medium stake on 1:1 draw.

Bet365 likes CLB 6/4 odds, Chivas 9/5 and Draw 11/5. Odds are showing 1:1 here as well (5/1).

Drew Epperley is going high on the Crew this game. 2:0, "Columbus has the talent to control this game and win on the road."

I can't find match predictions on the newly designed MLSsoccer.com website (which looks like a pre-teen Disney sister site). I did see recent "power rankings" that have the Crew 6th in the East and 11th over all above a last place Chivas.

IT'S HERE

Using method, I have the Crew at 49 pts and -3 goal differential on the year. Three points less than last year (low enough to be called pessimist I guess).

As for the Chivas game tonight. Looking like the Crew have the edge but might pull even. Lots of travel for the Crew over the past week or so should make this one an interesting watch.