Shift in Youth Participation

Soccer and Tackle Football are down while Ice Hockey, Rugby and Lacrosse are up. A new study out this week that tracks the change in youth participation in a number of sports in the USA over a five year period and comes with surprising finds.

2015 SFIA U.S. Trends in Team Sports Report looked at the total change in youth participation (ages 6-17) in sports from 2009 to 2014 and found that there is a measurable shift in what kids are doing. Looking at the top, the kings of youth sports are still Basketball, Soccer, Baseball and Football but each one of them has seen a decline in participation. Tackle Football, most notably.

Change Down from 2009 : Sport (total participants, in 000s)
-7% : Basketball (9,694)
-8% : Soccer, Outdoor (7,656)
-4% : Baseball (6,711)
-18% : Tackle Football (3,254)

(sorted by total participants)

In the sports tracked by in the SFIA study, there was nearly a 10% drop in all participation in all of the top 12 most popular youth sports save for one in Gymnastics (+12%). Here are the top gaining sports:

Change Up from 2009 : Sport (total participants, in 000s)
+101% : Rugby (301)
+44% : Ice hockey (743)
+29% : Lacrosse (804)
+23% : Volleyball, sand/beach (652)
+12% : Gymnastics (2,809)

(sorted by % change)

Over the years, there has been a lot of talk about the popularity of youth soccer in the United States. One of the things the sport has that is overlooked in studies is participation by gender. Tackle Football and, to a large degree Baseball (Softball is teased out in this study), are predominately only available to boys. This obviously means that half the population in the country isn't interested. This is why you get talking heads in sports that dismiss studies like this because of the lack of correlation to the popularity of sports among adults.

What the number above suggest is that 10% of kids are finding something else to bide their time with and there is a shift away from a few of the traditional sports to 2nd tier sports like Rugby, Ice Hockey and Lacrosse. On the surface, the gainers are sports that are usually reserved for middle to upper middle class. One could conclude that recent concerns with concussions has devastated American Football and Soccer within the well-to-do sector of the population.

In a recent article in the Sports Business Journal, Bill King tackled the topic and talked to a lot of people and asked them about what might be causing the changes. Answers went from kids focusing on one sport these days to the concerns about safety. If anything, after reading the article, you will be left with no conclusions.

Studies like this one can be a call to action, however. There are efforts being made by USA Hockey to increase participation that appear to be working as well as, on the other side of the spectrum, a "Heads Up" training program the NFL has introduced to help ease parents minds on concussions. The latter appears not to be working - save for the fact that the fastest growing demographic watching the sport on TV is women (go figure that one out).

We'll see what this means in the years to come. It is interesting to think about but if you ask 100 different people what they think of it, you will get 100 different answers.

Except on the top of Tackle Football (that's likely bad news for the sport).

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SOCCER, DAYS OF FUTURE PAST

So what does this mean for the sport in the US? It's a particular call out because the high participation numbers have been used to foretell the coming popularity of the sport at the professional levels. We've been hearing it since the early 1980s. Fast forward 30 years and it turns out that the only thing it foretold in those numbers was that lots of youth programs figured out how to make a lot of money.

The US has a professional league going on 20 years now, but the figures are showing that the number of US-born players in MLS is decreasing by the year and they are having to drop to "the minors," where there is no promotion and relegation and very few scouts watching, to keep playing.

The lack of an organized system this country has been talked about countless times, but perhaps if the trend is parent pulling their children out of the sport because of safety, travel, cost or unfulfilled promises at expensive "elite" levels then maybe we'll see some real change happen.

Metropolitan Division: New Jersey Devils

This is a series previewing the Metropolitan Division of the NHL. Next up: the New Jersey Devils.

NJ Devils GM Ray Shero

The 2014-15 NHL season was one the Devils would rather forget. They sputtered out of the gate and never recovered, leading to the firing of head coach Peter DeBoer the day after Christmas.

Following the "three heads are better than one" philosophy, GM Lou Lamoriello stepped out of the front office and joined Scott Stevens (DeBoer's assistant coach) and Adam Oates behind the bench. The Devils went on to finish 20 points out of a playoff position and closed out the season with just one win over their final 11 games.

On May 4, Lou Lamoriello stepped down as the team's President and general Manager. That same day, the Devils hired former Pittsburgh Penguins GM Ray Shero to fill the role of GM for the Devils. Less than a month later, Shero hired John Hynes away from the Penguins organization to be the new bench boss in New Jersey. In five seasons as head coach of the AHL Wilkes Barre/Scranton Penguins, he had a record of 231-126-27. At 40 years of age, Hynes is the youngest coach in the NHL.

The Devils have many issues that need addressed, foremost of which is a lack of scoring. They finished last season with and average of just 2.15 goals per game, ranking in the bottom of the league. While there was little off-season movement to bolster the roster, the team has a group of young defensemen that are expected to help. Eric Gelinas, Adam Larsson, Jon Merrill, John Moore and Damon Severson are all under the age of 25. Last month, Larsson signed a six-year, $25M extension with the team.

New Jersey has the lowest salary-cap hit of any team in the league, sitting just $4.5M above the cap-floor. With $14M to spend, there are free agent players this summer that are silently screaming "show me the money...", hoping the team will part with some of their cash reserves.

NJ Devils head coach John Hynes

The biggest acquisition for the Devils was trading draft picks (2nd, 3rd round picks in 2015 draft) with the Anaheim Ducks for 24 year-old forward Kyle Palmieri. In 57 games with Ducks last season, he went 14-15-29.

Between the pipes, the Devils have one of the league's best goaltenders in Cory Schneider. He signed a seven-year, $42M extension with the team last summer and posted .925 save percentage and 2.26 goals against average, 26-31-9 in 69 games. Backing up Schneider is Keith Kinkaid, who signed a two-year, $1.45M extension in April. In 19 games for the Devils last season, Kinkaid had a .915 save percentage and a 2.59 goals against average, going 6-5-4.

These inauspicious moves could very well mark the precursor to a long-overdue rebuild for the Devils. But, they still need to address their scoring woes if they hope to return to the playoffs.

Metropolitan Division: The Carolina Hurricanes

Carolina Hurricanes head coach Bill Peters

This is a series previewing the 2015-16 Metropolitan Division of the NHL. Up first are the Carolina Hurricanes.

With their dismal 2014-15 season (30-41-11, 8th in the division) squarely in the rear-view mirror, the Carolina Hurricanes are hoping for a return to the playoffs for the first time since 2009.

They did not make many offseason changes, but their biggest move was buying-out the final three years of forward Alexander Semin's contract. Semin put up woeful numbers last season, going 6-13-19 in 57 games and part of the general ennui surrounding the Hurricanes' offense.

They are now hoping for a bounce-back year from forward Jeff Skinner (18-13-31 in 77 games) and increased production from Eric and Jordan Staal. Elias Lindholm had 17 goals last season and the team is looking for more out of the 5th overall 2013 draft pick.

Carolina's defense could see a major boost this season with the addition of 2015 draft pick Noah Hanifin, selected 5th overall. They're hoping that 2014 7th overall draft pick Haydn Fleury can compete for a spot on the team and contribute. They also have Justin Faulk (2014 U.S. Olympian) shoring up their defense.

They acquired veteran defenseman James Wisniewski from the Anaheim Ducks for goaltender Anton Khudobin, and should see some power-play goals out of the defender.

Carolina Hurricanes 2015 5th overall draft pick Noah Hanifin
meets head coach Bill Peters on the draft floor.

With the departure of Khudobin to the west coast, longtime Hurricanes' goalie Cam Ward will see competition from Eddie Lack, acquired on draft day from the Vancouver Canucks. Ward had a 22-24-5 record with a 2.40 GAA and .910 save percentage in 2014-15. Lack, nicknamed "The Stork", went 18-13-4 for the Canucks last season, with a 2.45 GAA and .921 save percentage.

"They know what I expect out of them, how I operate, how I run the bench and what I expect out of them on a daily basis," head coach Bill Peters told NHL.com. "With the additions and deletions in our program, we're going to get a group that we're proud of every day. They're going to know how we expect to play every day."

In the ever-tougher Metropolitan Division, Carolina hopes to do better than their last place result from one season ago. Will they be able to right the ship enough to return to the playoffs? It's a far-reaching goal, and one that could very well be a few years away.

TANKING IT

Not exactly sure how losing on purpose got associated with the word "Tanking," but it is and most people understand it when it's used in a sports context. Thinking back through all my years of US sports watching, I seem to remember it always being sort of around. Maybe more of a wink and a nod, but it was there - but it was also rare.

"Back in the old days" it was seen as a shameful act, that tanking. The thought of going into a competition to purposefully lose was once seen as a commandment brought down from Mount Sinai by Moses himself. THOU SHALT NOT LAY PURPOSEFULLY UNDER THE FEET OF THINE ENEMY, it says. Well, almost says.

There is a biblical connection to not losing on purpose that permeates U.S. sporting culture that is sold, repackaged, sold and sold and sold again. In the US it comes in the form of the Great Underdog. And who was one of the first and most famous of all underdogs? Why it was David and his victory over Goliath.

I consider the "never say die, always try your hardest" approach one of the greatest attributes of the United States sporting culture. No matter the odds, no matter the opponent, Americans always believe they can win. It's brought us things like The Miracle on Ice, 1982-83 NC State, Gene Hackman, Rocky and (some might say) saving the day in WWII.

What of this approach now though?

Out in Tennessee a few days ago two high school girls basketball teams played a scheduled match in which they both tried to lose in order to avoid a superior opponent in an upcoming tournament, and thus extend their season. What ended up happening was down right biblical. Reports out of the district have girls time killing, missing shots on purpose and even one side trying to score on themselves. Unconfirmed reports say that after the game there the match there were rivers turning to blood and many locusts.

It's more than fitting (and I kid you not) that one of schools is from Smyrna. A place likely named after biblical city that is mentioned in the Book of Revelations.

In a story from The Tennessean today, fired up columnist David Plazas felt robbed of a potential match up that faced the winner:

"It’s that David-and-Goliath moment when you can test your mettle even if your rival is bigger and better armed than you."

The punishment for the two schools was severe. Each school ended up getting fined (in high school?) as well as kicked out of the tournament all together. I can't get over that. Applying a fine to a high school for trying to gain an advantage in a system they didn't create reminds me of one of my favorite Charles Frazier lines from Cold Mountain;

"Every piece of this is man's bullshit. They call this war "a cloud over the land" but they made the weather and then they stand in the rain and say "Shit, it's rainin'!"

GREAT THE REWARD

Last place wins

Great rewards await anyone who tries their hardest. No question. But in the realm of athletic competition in this country, where the spoils of losing at our highest levels greatly benefit and reward failure, it's hardly surprising that we see teams at the high school level mimic pro teams like the Philadelphia 76ers or (dare we say) Columbus Blue Jackets.

Tanking in the major sports in the US is rewarded via high draft picks and extra money usually (in the case of MLS, not making the playoffs gets you just about as much as making it). Player movement in domestic sport is so restrictive that sometimes tanking has become a necessity.

As close as a few years ago, you would rarely hear of fans and columnists and even analysts openly approving of teams tanking it. There's been a shift in that approach recently though. Complete shift. So much so that we see "star" players dropping out of season all together towards the end to help get a jump on the next year (Kyrie Irving last couple years before LeBron and I'll put Kobe in that mix this year, moving surgery up). I know plenty Cleveland Browns' fans that regularly route for losing after the first few games so they can get better picks.

Tanking-It is now seen as a prudent competitive approach. "Gamesmanship," is what some are calling it. It's hard to disagree with it, really. But herein lies the issue. Teams breaking one of the commandments of sports is merely a bi-product of the ridiculousness of league set ups. Losing is rewarded, so why not lose.

There are those out there, like Plazas, that will always condemn the idea of losing on purpose but never quite understand why they think that way. Which is unfortunate.

Effort in the face of long odds use to be what we structured our leagues around in the US. Now the scales have tipped way too far in favor of not even trying. What we are left with is rewarding people trying to gain at failure instead of actually punishing poor performance. It's all mixed up.

EVERYBODY IS STILL ALIVE

Sixers are still in it!!

Not doing well in your conference? Well you still within striking distance in your division, right? No? What about taking down that regional rival?  Hmmm. US leagues are bloated. So many teams but only one winner. The remedy for that is breaking it up into smaller groups so that you (FAN) don't ever really feel that far away from winning SOMETHING, but if you are too far away from even any of that? Tank it and reap the rewards of failure.

Actual competition in this country has gotten so convoluted, it's hard to tell that most of it is a charade to keep you tuned in. We have gotten so far away from actual, honest competition that we think have a four team playoff is a "fair" way to determine a National Champion when most of the 100 + D1 schools haven't, don't and probably never will, play each other.

The competitive models in our major leagues need to be re-examined, re-thought and re-booted. Otherwise we are forever doomed to watching half the teams in any league engage in a rat race to the bottom - celebrating them all along the way while wondering what the hell happened to the American Way.

The Psychology Buried Within the Promotion/Relegation Debate

Never in the history of American Soccer has there been such a profound ideological divide amongst people who share a deep passion for the beautiful game. The current debate, easily witnessed and joined, can be found growing deep roots in the rich soil of soccer forums, message boards, blogs, and websites.

Comparing the promotion/relegation debate to the abortion debate would be, at the very least, a gross insult to a complex human sentiment. Yet, the debate within the North American Soccer Community bears some striking similarities to the fight to safely reduce the number of abortions in the United States.

Words such as “idiot,” “wrong,” “stupid,” “dim-witted,” “brain-dead” and worse are often tossed around when people on both sides of the pro/rel debate argue their side. In this post, I will make an effort to explain the source and motivation which leads to the promotion/relegation dispute spewing such venom.

A good starting point is the incredibly simple nature of our sport. Given a serviceable round object and at least two people, the game of soccer can sprout anywhere: in a gym, on the playground, in a basement, an alley or the street. Soccer is a sport of both the people and the person.

We try to challenge ourselves: how many juggles can we get? We try to best our opponents: a simple step-over or touch through the defender’s legs sees us on our way to goal.

There is a sense of the primordial ooze about our sport. The heart races, the knees and shins sometimes bleed. Dirt and grass stains seep into our very being.

We start at an early age, a simple single-celled organism: kick the ball, laugh, chase. We slowly, over the years, become a mosaic, an Escher painting: unpredictable, challenging, provocative.

These things are the core of our sport. We never shed these things. They may be buried deep inside when we reach adulthood; but, they continue to fan the flames of competition, even at the highest, most organized levels of our sport.

So, how does this simple yet powerful aspect of our sport manifest itself in the ideological divide between proponents and opponents of the promotion and relegation debate? Plainly stated, there are those who wish to protect themselves and the mature version of our sport from the uncertainty crawling to the shore from the thick and wicked pool of primordial ooze. And then, there are those who wish to gather up the beautiful game and dive into the primordial ooze.

One side cannot stand the constant stress of random chance, and so, struggles to find order, codifies the un-codifiable and builds barriers between the game and the ooze.

The other side wants to let the ooze run free, and so, demands that all involved compete in the primordial soup. From teams, to fans, to towns, to owners, this second group wants the very essence of our sport, the people and the person, on display in every way possible.

I count my self in the second group. There is already enough in our American culture that is codified, walled-off and protected. Banks write banking legislation to protect themselves from the downside of competition. Politicians manipulate so that they have safety nets to land softly and richly after terms run out. Owners of NHL, NBA, MLB and NFL teams quash competition in order to shelter themselves from the very competition they profess to admire. The players in these sports compete, but the owners do not take part. They build dams to hold back the primordial ooze. Players risk injury, the end of an already short career. They uproot their families year after year. Owners sit in luxury boxes and count money, knowing that failure will be rewarded with better draft picks, an easier schedule, a move to another city and layer after layer of protection from the very things they are selling to their customer.

Our sport is an escape from the mundane. All those involved should be constantly evolving from simple organism to Escher complexity, always in search of the playground, the step-over, the alley, the gym, the next level.

Slipping, sliding back is part of the complexity. Don’t be afraid. Embrace the ooze.