2013 Prediction on MR + Eval of 2012 Picks

Last year I did alright with my preseason predictions. 4 out of the 5 playoff teams correct.

The Toronto pick sticks in my craw - but all of the other picks were either within one spot (7) or two (NE) on the table. Quite proud of that actually.

MY PREDICTION : 2012 ACTUAL FINISH : TEAM
1 : 1 : Sporting KC
2 : 3 : NY
3 : 2 : DC United
4 : 4 : Chicago
5 : 10 : Toronto
6 : 5 : Houston
7 : 9 : New England
8 : 8 : Philadelphia
9 : 7: Montreal

You'll notice that the Crew are not listed. Last preseason I was pretty worked up about the team. I couldn't bare to include them in the list (seriously). "These days I am a pretty big Crew fan so I have removed them from the list and put them on a celestial plain of which I shall write romantically about all year."

However, before it got to crunch time I did mention that the Crew would end up fighting for a playoff spot.

2013 PREDICTION, MASSIVE REPORT

Head on over to Massive Report for a full explanation for my 2013 predictions. I used pretty much the same methodology as last year though. It worked. I'm pretty confident with it again this year.

1 : Sporting KC
2 : NY
3 : Houston
4 : DC United
5 : Chicago
6 : Columbus
7 : Montreal
8 : Philadelphia
9 : New England
0 : Toronto

What this means is that Columbus is looking at the same finish as last year. One thing I'm worried about this year is Montreal. There are a couple indicators that point towards them jumping into the top five (player retention being of most important indicator).

Their performance in the preseason only solidifies this thought. They have the potential to push out a team like Chicago and Columbus from the playoff picture.

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More on the Massive Report post:

Now that the schedule is unbalanced it seems like things can be a little more predictable. Once a team has played a couple times the outcome is remarkably predictable. It's surprising to me that Major League Soccer is marching forward with the unbalanced schedule.

Anyhow. Stay tuned to Massive Report tomorrow and Saturday before the Chivas USA opener (that's on past my bedtime). It's going to be a tricky game for the Crew.

The Crew are no doubt a better team but given the time of the game and the fact that the players traveling have been on the road for a solid month...

... could be a tricky fixture. Did I mention that? Oh.

Couple More from Orlando

Andy Gruenebaum right after the 0:1 loss to Montreal. Over on the left are are the Montreal Impact players accepting the tournament trophy.



View of the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex. Looking towards the soccer fields. On the left is the baseball complex. The NY Yankees were playing Atlanta Braves in spring training play while I was there. The 20 years from now me will be attending both events. I see you over there baseball. You and your numbers...

Orlando Trip

The 2013 Disney World Pro Soccer Classic wrapped up yesterday as the Montreal Impact took down the Columbus Crew 1:0. Montreal looked far superior just about from start to finish.

Working on a post over at Massive Report that will try, among other things, to tie together the potential relationship between this tournament and how teams will finish this year. It's a tricky thing, that. Fans seem to dismiss this, the "mouse cup," but I've spent a great deal of time watching it this year and think the performances will play out in the end.

Players and coaches are taking it seriously. Lots of first team players and regular season intensity. The tournament deserves at least the respect the participants have put in to it.

After having enough of watching streaming matches online, I headed down to Orlando to check out things for myself for the final day of games, February 23rd. A full slate. Four matches.

After the match Andy Gruenebaum and Josh Williams thanked each (a dozen or so) fan for making the journey down (or out) to Orlando to watch the club play.

Podcast + Crew Highlight Video

New podcast is up over at Massive Report. Again, Matt Goshert, Chris LaMacchia, Rick Gethin and Mr. Justin Bell do all the work. Matt asks me to join during the 3rd segment to talk about my "Of Stone Block and Clay" post. It's really great to get to join in with them, also great just to talk some soccer.

Tonight, spent some time chopping up the Crew's preseason goals during the 2013 Disney 'Classic'. The Crew have outscored the competition 8 goals to 2. Granted, it might play out that Toronto and Philly are weak MLS sides... Here:


VIDEO NOTABLES:

Finley kicking Frei in face :30

Finley working around keeper :40

Ethan Finlay brilliance follows...

Marshall hurt 1:45 Eddie hangs back to check on him. It's actually a sort of emotional moment for me. Both these guys have seen a good deal, not just in black and gold, but also red white and blue.

New signing's brilliance 1:50

Finally, Josh Williams Goal... 2:07 (convert that Williams goal to memory, true believers. As soon as he struck it he was on his way over to assistman Higuain before it was in the net. Know how many times I've seen a defender one time a ball 6" from the ground for goal? The guy is special.)

Song I used is "Gumball Machine Weekend" by Yppah. Good stuff.

Winter is almost over. The 2013 MLS season is nearly upon us... prediction is coming. Stay tuned here an at Massive Report.

WHICH crew COLUMBUS CREW

Here's a preview of upcoming match with Orlando City with preseason Crew “first team / second team” observations.

Even with three games yet remaining it’s easy to say that the Crew have had a successful preseason. With five games behind them they have won four. Their last game, a 4:0 dismissal of the Philadelphia Union, was enough to calm some nerves heading into the start of the season.

Next up is a USL Pro side Orlando City that has handful of Major League Soccer level talent lead by Luke Boden (trialed with Chicago Fire this offseason), Kevin Molino (3 G, 7 A), Jamie Watson (5 G, 3 A), James O’Connor and Dennis Chin (a 6’3” forward who lead the league in goals last year with 11). Also listed on the 2013 roster is Tony Pulis, son of the Stoke City boss of which some worship.[updated: not listed]

This core group of players only lost one game last year in regular season play (17 W, 6 D, 1 L), easily the best record in the league with a +1.33 goal differential. No other team in the league was even close.

City, the unofficial host of this tournament, tied the Philadelphia Union 1:1 in the first game (goal by Chin) and lost to Toronto FC this past Wednesday on a 0:3 scoreline that deserved to be closer than it looks (City was better the 1st 60 minutes of that match).

The Crew have handled both common opponents in this tournament, beating Toronto 1:0 and Philly 4:0. This suggests that the Crew should have little to no problem with Orlando.

The Crew should handle them but which Crew crew will do the handling? The answer might surprise you. Might not.

A few weeks ago I took a good look at the advantage teams have that are able to return players from the previous year, preferably minute gainers. With five games gone in this preseason I can definitively say that the Crew have benefited from the players returning from last year’s team.

To compare how players have been performing this 2013 preseason I broke them up into four groups.

• 1st TEAM PLAYERS
• 2nd TEAM PLAYERS
• WITH 2012 COLUMBUS CREW
• NOT WITH 2012 COLUMBUS CREW

From there you can further shuffle into sub categories: 1st Team / With 2012 Crew, 1st Team Not. 2nd Team With and Not With. All totalled, 8 groups of players to compare.

The best performing group this offseason are 2nd Team Players / With 2012 Crew. They are averaging a +1.23 Goal Diff. Right behind them is the WITH 2012 CREW group, +0.92 GD.

The two underperforming groups are the players that were not with the 2012 team. It’s not surprising that the With 2012 / 1st Team players are performing below average as there are only 5 of them (a story which deserves its own post).

It’ll be interesting to see what the 2nd Team / With 2012 could do against other 1st teams this preseason, or perhaps a combined 1st and 2nd team of all players returning from last year, but it will not happen. Head Coach Robert Warzycha has made it pretty clear who the starters will be this season.

TV Guide, Black-hearted Destrier

It's really great that MLS is making more and more preseason games available online. New traditions are being created right before our eyes in Orlando, Arizona and Charleston with these mini tournaments. Once a little bit of time passes these things might matter and even migrate into the regular season (see Cups and English football). It's pretty exciting to see.

I listed out the games that the Crew will be playing this month over at Massive Report with some preseason notes about what to look out for.

The artwork was driven by the obvious. An old TV Guide seemed a natural fit for Ryan Finley. He's off to a good start in the preseason, looks comfortable up top. There's a classic Madmen look about him and he seems to have a bit of an edge to match it. I'm hoping it sticks around, to be honest.

Iain Macintosh wrote a piece titled: WHY ALL OF ENGLAND SHOULD LOVE ANDY CARROLL yesterday. It's short, but great.

"I’ve always liked Carroll. There is something rather glorious about the sight of him in full flow. When I watch him thundering into the penalty area, his hooves pounding the sludge like a snorting, black-hearted destrier, something deep within me stirs."

Some might say that here in the US we don't have any sort of identity like that in soccer, but I think we do, we just seem to misidentify it. Maybe, in a way, the same way that England likes to hide from Andy Carroll.

Soccer, more than any other sport, takes on the shape of her people and culture. The attitude that shapes the world view of Americans flows through the veins most of us, whether we like it or not. It's best described by someone better than I but the better side of it is one that's found in movies like Saving Private Ryan or, well... from the same time period in both film and historical context - Chicken Run.

Facing death and the impossible with a crooked smile, resourceful intelligence and a live forever confidence. That's the kind of player I would like on my team. The Crew have a few, would like to see more.

Earth to the Columbus Crew

SHORT STAFFED, 21 PLAYERS
Columbus still sits at the bottom of the list as far as players signed up for next year. This is counting Emilio Renteria whose contract only has a few more days on it. Other teams sitting on a roster of 21 players? New England, Colorado, Toronto, Montreal. Bad company as none of those teams will be in the top half of the table in 2013.

CURRENT ROSTER SIZE : TEAM
29 : LA*
28 : SKC*
28 : POR
27 : HOU*
27 : PHI
25 : SEA*
24 : CHI*
24 : SJE*
24 : GOATS
24 : FCD
23 : VAN*
22 : NY*
22 : DCU*
21 : NER
21 : COL
21 : TFC
21 : RSL*
21 : MON
21 : CLB

A TAD YOUNG, 24 YRS OLD
Median age of players on the Crew. Tied with Toronto and LA as the second youngest. Philly number one, 23. Crew planning a big old 'trio of locals sign' feel good here soon that will only drive median age even further down.

TEAM : MEDIAN AGE
NY : 28
VAN : 27
SEA : 27
CHI : 27
HOU : 26
MON : 26
COL : 26
NER : 26
SJE : 26
DCU : 25
SKC : 25
FCD : 25
GOATS : 25
RSL : 25
PDX : 25
TFC : 24
LA : 24
CLB : 24
PHI : 23

CHEAPEST, $60K
Crew currently find themselves at the bottom in median player salary, 60k. That's barely above the league minimum. All is not entirely lost here though as they are in pretty good company. Seattle, RSL, DC also find themselves down with them.

MEDIAN SALARY : TEAM
120,000 : Montreal
116,434 : Vancouver
112,496 : New York
111,563 : San Jose
108,880 : Chicago
103,525 : Houston
94,625 : Colorado
92,292 : KC
90,750 : Philadelphia
86,000 : Toronto
79,875 : New England
77,679 : LA
77,500 : Dallas
77,125 : Portland
76,667 : DC
68,208 : Chivas
62,500 : Real Salt Lake
60,000 : Columbus
60,000 : Seattle

LEAST MARKET VALUE
Posted this yesterday, Crew at the bottom in median market value according to Transfer Markt.

MEDIAN : TEAM
503,125 : NY
483,000 : SEA
442,750 : MON
402,500 : DCU
382,375 : SKC
362,250 : CHI
362,250 : COL
362,250 : FCD
362,250 : HOU
362,250 : LA
362,250 : VAN
281,750 : GOATS
281,750 : NER
281,750 : PHI
281,750 : RSL
281,750 : SJE
281,750 : TFC
261,625 : POR
241,500 : CLB

NO EXPERIENCE, LAST IN YR TO YR MLS MINS

33870 : KC
33427 : San Jose
33263 : Portland
32522 : LA
32110 : New York
31655 : Colorado
31447 : Houston
30502 : Philadelphia
29265 : Dallas
29152 : Chicago
28815 : Seattle
28598 : DC
27959 : New England
27833 : Montreal
27469 : Vancouver
27330 : Chivas
25847 : Real Salt Lake
23819 : Toronto
23001 : Columbus

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Other stuff that I won't list out, but will note; Crew 12th in returning goals (36 goals from last year) and 14th in returning assists (27). Crew have 13 players of 21 from USA, about league average.

Crew are far from a dumpster fire here (like Montreal and Vancouver seem to be), but they are starting from the base of the mountain. And doing so towards the end of Robert Warzycha's tenure kinda shoots up some giant red flags.

Still some time here before the preseaon starts for the Crew to get back into the game but it needs to happen soon.