Thursday, October 11, 2012

MLS Year over Year Consistency

Taking a look at how well clubs that keep players from the previous year to this year do. My regular focus is on the Crew but I do record and track the stats from all the other teams in Major League Soccer.

When certain conditions merge, I'll post up some league stuff.

Those CONDITIONs MERGEing
1. Time (Thursday)
2. Bourbon (Elmer T. Lee)
3. Music (Phenomenal Handclap Band)

So, there are some data things that point towards keeping players together year over year. Here are teams that have the most returning players that have seen time in 2011 and 2012.

% Players both 2011 and 2012 : Team
67% : Houston
61% : Real Salt Lake
60% : San Jose
60% : Sporting KC
59% : FC Dallas
54% : D.C.
50% : Los Angeles

I'm cutting it here at 50% to point out that all the above are currently in the playoffs, save for Dallas. Pretty sure they are underachieving.

Here are the rest. Only three teams below 50% are in the 2012 playoff.

48% : Toronto FC
48% : Seattle
46% : Columbus
45% : Colorado
45% : Portland
45% : Vancouver
44% : Chicago
39% : New England
38% : Philadelphia
30% : New York
28% : Chivas USA

Important to call out LA Galaxy here. They spend the money but have kept a core group together. Slow start for them but doing well now.

Oddballs, NY and CHI have also cut the number of minutes the carryovers get. In my book it's bad enough that CHI only kept 12 of their current 27 league minute gainers. I calculate a 12% decrease in minutes for the 12 guys that hung in since last year. NY has a 27% decrease in mins for their lowly 8 carryovers.

Speaking of Carryovers from last year. Here is the number by dudes ending 2011 and 2012 with the same club. I put a * by the playoff teams.

16 : *Houston
16 : FC Dallas
16 : *Los Angeles
15 : *San Jose
15 : *Sporting KC
14 : *Real Salt Lake
14 : Toronto FC
13 : *D.C.
13 : *Seattle
13 : Columbus
13 : Colorado
13 : Portland
13 : *Vancouver
12 : *Chicago
11 : New England
11 : Philadelphia
08 : *New York
08 : Chivas USA

Bottom line here is to keep players together. I have one last thing here to hammer things home on the consistency front. It's minutes with the same team, year to year. Of the players that stay with the team it's good to keep their minutes stable (perhaps with a slight increase).

With the exception of CHI and NY (again) each team in the playoffs that kept lineups stable, in terms of minutes, are in the playoffs. Below shows % of minutes gained or lost from 2011 to 2012 when only counting the players that played in both years.

+53% : Toronto FC
+33% : Philadelphia
+20% : Columbus

+9% : San Jose
+7% : Sporting KC
+6% : Los Angeles
+5% : Real Salt Lake
+4% : Houston
+6% : Seattle
+2% : D.C.


-4% : New England
-9% : Vancouver
-16% : Chivas USA
-12% : Chicago
-27% : New York
-18% : FC Dallas
-21% : Colorado
-26% : Portland

Note the teams in bold. Consistent from last year to this. Combine that with retaining talent and you get a winning formula.

The more people you can keep together longer, is good. Minimize unnecessary change, maintain consistency, and foster an environment of continuous improvement.

The longer I follow this league the more I realize how achievable and simple success in it is.

(It starts with the right bourbon)

2 comments:

mls vancouver said...

yes.. mls vancouver has been consistent and will be consistent throughout .. my well wishes are with it always

Mind said...

yes.. mls vancouver has been consistent and will be consistent throughout .. my well wishes are with it always