Saturday, October 6, 2012

Crew Game Predicting Accuracy

Tomorrow I'll be posting up my normal pre-game "Predictions" for the Columbus v. Kansas City match (in Columbus). In it I will list out how various outlets think the match will go, just as I have done since about halfway through the year. Before I get to my next "predictions" post I wanted to list out how well everyone is doing.

Here's the pick accuracy over the last 15 Crew games for my normal go to places:

67% : Win Draw Win's "Fan Vote" feature
64% : Bet365
60% :'s "Pick 'Em" guys (consensus from the group)
53% : Massive Report's Aaron Katzeman
40% : Massive Report's "Fan Pick" poll
40% : WV Hooligan, Drew Epperley

No percentage for Adam Jardy's "lean" as he does not pick result for each game but have mentioned him 8 times since the KC match back on September 14th with about a 50% accuracy in his "lean". His brief, paragraph long "how I think it will play out" feature in the paper day of the game is usually pretty damn close to what happens.

Like Jardy, I usually "lean" one way or the other and only predict what I think the actual result will be every so often. My lean is influenced by the outlets I list above.

Since Major League Soccer is single entity and takes pride in parity, if you were to just pick Home Crew WIN and Away Crew LOSS you would have a 66% accuracy over the last 15 games. If you did it over the course of the year: 57% - and just picking the team higher up on the table would yield you 60% Crew picking accuracy in the last 15 contests (the table is to be trusted 20 games into the year).

Tomorrows game should be an interesting one to try and foretell. It's a top team playing away against a mid-table team battling for their playoff lives.

Draw they might say... bah! The Crew don't do Draws anymore.

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