Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Helltown Score Update (Mendes, Duka Top)

The Helltown Score is about how well the team does when a particular player starts.

I take the average Points Per Game (PPG) earned per start and add it to average Goal Difference (GD) per start.

Helltown Score = PPG + GD

I use a FIVE game start minimum. You'll notice players with more starts towards the middle. That is natural as the Crew have played 19 games. Eddie and Andy are the team average here.

This is for 2012 only.

Helltown Score : Name : Games Started

3.60 : Carlos Mendes (5)
3.00 : Dilly Duka (5)
2.11 : Danny O´Rourke (9)
1.79 : Joshua Williams (14)
1.71 : Justin Meram (7)
1.67 : Sebastián Miranda (18)
1.60 : Bernardo Anor (5)
1.50 : Chris Birchall (6)
1.50 : Emilio Renteria (14)
1.50 : Nemanja Vukovic (10)
1.47 : Andy Gruenebaum (19)
1.47 : Eddie Gaven (19)
1.17 : Shaun Francis (6)
0.83 : Olman Vargas (6)
0.83 : Tony Tchani (12)
0.75 : Milovan Mirosevic (12)
0.73 : Chad Marshall (11)
0.60 : Kirk Urso (5)
0.57 : Eric Gehrig (7)

Here are the folks that don't have enough games...

4.33 : Cole Grossman (3)
2.00 : Jairo Obando Arrieta (3)
2.00 : Julius James (2)
1.33 : Ethan Finlay (3)
1.00 : Aaron Schoenfeld (3)
0.75 : Kevan George (4)

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Cole Grossman, Carlos Mendes and Dilly Duka are off to a rip-roaring 2012 start (especially Duka, who has done a 180 compared to last year). I've been playing around with this metric for over a year now and still think it is extremely valuable. Five games is a small minimum to go by but still enough to notice trend.

If I were to build a starting lineup off this metric I would cast aside the abritrary 5 game min and go with this:

Gruenebaum
Miranda, Mendes, James, Williams
O´Rourke, Grossman
Duka, Gaven, Meram
Arrieta

...and work from there.

The notable exception here is Mr. Marshall. Captain Marshall, as it is. I have a great deal of respect for him but his numbers, no matter how you slice them, don't rise to the top.

Let's compare him real quick to Josh Williams. Josh has 14 starts, Chad 11.

Points per Game
1.57 : Josh
1.47 : TEAM
1.18 : Chad

Goals for per Game
1.14 : Josh
1.05 : TEAM
0.91 : Chad

Goal Difference per Game
+0.21 : Josh
00.00 : TEAM
-0.45 : Chad

I don't want to pit these two players against each other. Nor am I attempting to make an argument to strip Chad Marshall of his armband (this would have disastrous effects, see recent twitter events as recorded by Gawker's Deadspin. Forgivable, but he did lead his teammates over a cliff).

What I am saying is that Chad, as captain, has immense responsibility regarding the success of this young club. He will be starting. He must get consistent results.

The Crew's chances at the playoffs and long term future depend more on this then any mid-season signing.

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Want to know how the Helltown Score looks if you go back to the beginning of last year?

4.33 : Cole Grossman 3
3.60 : Carlos Mendes 5
2.27 : Justin Meram 11
2.00 : Jairo Obando Arrieta 3
2.00 : Andy Iro 2
1.91 : Bernardo Anor 11
1.83 : Tom Heinemann 12
1.80 : Danny O´Rourke 15
1.79 : Joshua Williams 14
1.76 : Andy Gruenebaum 21
1.60 : Kevin Burns 15
1.59 : Joshua Gardner 22
1.57 : Eddie Gaven 46
1.50 : Chris Birchall 6
1.50 : Nemanja Vukovic 10
1.41 : Julius James 34
1.40 : Sebastián Miranda 53
1.38 : Emmanuel Ekpo 29
1.33 : TEAM
1.33 : Ethan Finlay 3
1.25 : Jeff Cunningham 4
1.23 : Dejan Rusmir 13
1.18 : Emilio Renteria 28
1.11 : Chad Marshall 44
1.08 : Andrés Mendoza 26
1.06 : Will Hesmer 33
1.00 : Aaron Schoenfeld 3
0.96 : Robbie Rogers 25
0.91 : Dilly Duka 22
0.83 : Olman Vargas 6
0.83 : Rich Balchan 18
0.75 : Kevan George 4
0.75 : Milovan Mirosevic 12
0.73 : Shaun Francis 11
0.69 : Tony Tchani 13
0.64 : Eric Gehrig 11
0.60 : Kirk Urso 5

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