Sunday, October 31, 2010

EPL: My local team is better then your local team

Playing around with my new found soccer leagues in England. I spent some time looking at domestic leagues in terms of winners and losers and am now turning some attention over to the non-domestic.

The EPL is 9 and 10 games in (Sunday morning, games today). 20 teams, 192 games played.

Home team is winning 44% of the time. Losing 23% if the time and drawing 33%.

What that works out to be is the following: If your team is playing at home then it has a 77% chance of getting out of there with at least a point. I looked at it with out the top three teams as well: 74% chance of coming out of your own back yard with at least a point.

What changes when I pull out the top three is just an increased chance to lose on the road. Just slight, however. 44% chance with top 3, 49% without.

Outside of plain old normal distribution of data, I have a few conclusions:

1. Advantage: Home Team
In a big way. It's something you don't see to this degree in domestic leagues. However, American sports don't end in ties (at least they don't easily). It sort of funny because the two times I can remember a tie there was a massive outcry by fans and players didn't even know it was possible. Once in the MLB all star game and once in the NFL where McNabb didn't even know a tie was possible.

2. 1/3 of games played end in a draw.
It's the way of footie I guess. I'm trying to get use to it. It's definitely an added dimension. No way am I saying get rid of it, just saying.

3. Lowest division, nPower league 2 has the same results. 73% of teams come out with a win or draw. 45% chance of an outright loss on the road. Note: League 2 has a larger sample set of games. 24 teams, 14 games in, 294 games played.

4. Tie games are typically an English thing.
I looked at the Bundesliga. Home team wins 44%, similar to EPL. However, games only end in draws 18% of the time. Also looked at Serie A in Italy, where I thought every game ended in a tie. Nope, still less then England at 30%. Though, similar results with home team coming out with a point (76%).

4a. MLS
Finally, the MLS. Similar to the Bundesliga. 24% chance of draw. 48% chance of home team win.

5. Goals
MLS, EPL, nPower and Serie A have similar GD averages hovering around +0.2 in favor of the home team. Bundesliga is ever so slim at +0.09; home team. Go figure. The league with the least amount of ties has the closest games.

6. Digging deeper
How about the 1975 English Top Division season? Similar home results. 77% chance the home team will pull out a point at home. Draws down to 28%. GD slightly higher at +0.26 for the home team.

7. Who is the worst team in the EPL this year?
Wigan. They have had 6 home games. One more then most everyone else and are sitting at 16th.

8. Who will probably climb the ladder a bit?
Blackpool. Only 3 home games when most everyone has 5. They are sitting at 15th place with two winnable home games in a row coming up.

I could go on and on man. Anyway, Liverpool won in 1975, just beating out the Queens Park Rangers by a point.

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