NYCFC v. Philly, Preview and Bet

Continuing onwards with my fake MLS betting even after my "L" last night. Speaking of:

LAST MATCH: I had Miami over Orlando because the had more to gain. They did take the 1-0 advantage and hold it for a while but man are there holes in that roster. Orlando ended up winning on a Nani finish off a loose ball in the box.

This morning is NYCFC v. Philadelphia Union. I'm going with the favorite; NYCFC.

NYCFC	-106	$25.00
Draw	300	$0.00
Philadelphia Union	250	$0.00

WHY: It's nearly impossible to know what frame of mind these players are in. Not just the pandemic, but an early morning kickoff (9 AM). I'm going with the team that has better, more professional players. Union have been slow starters over the years anyway. All I got, I guess.

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Notes:

1. Only using a 3 Way Moneyline (picking the result. Team A or B win or a match Draw). Keeping it as simple as possible.

2. I'm using the MGM odds because that's the league's official partner.

3. Also, I'll be using updated odds from the Bet MGM site, not MLS. I've already seen differences. 

4. My odds are locked when I place my fake bet, usually about an hour before posting on Helltown.

MLS is Back (Day 1 Betting)

"MLS is Back" despite removing one team and postponing another. Regardless, I thought it would be fun to place FAKE bets on the games going forward. I will post as much as time allows, but I am armed with a spreadsheet that updates with the odds as the days march on.

Speaking of days marching on... the only way to do this is to place my fake bets close to kickoff time because the situation appears to be fluid.

I'll continue to add posts and my betting totals in this completely once in a lifetime (we hope) MLS event. It could get messy. Will more teams drop out? Postponements? Rainouts? Will the MLSPA pull the players? The whole thing gets canceled? Strap in.

DAY 1

Orlando City vs. Inter Miami

Teams	Odds	Bet Amount
Orlando City	200
Draw	250	$0.00
Miami	130	$20.00

WHY: Miami has more to gain by winning today. With winning comes relevance, something in short supply with expansion teams. Miami was really driving hard at the start of this season even though the quality of the team is questionable. They have been very active on social media and as far as I can tell, they have a mostly full roster. Don't discount media activity. It costs money, even more money if you want it to look good.

Notes:

1. Only using a 3 Way Moneyline (picking the result. Team A or B win or a match Draw). Keeping it as simple as possible.

2. I'm using the MGM odds because that's the league's official partner.

3. Also, I'll be using updated odds from the Bet MGM site, not MLS. I've already seen differences. 

4. My odds are locked when I place my fake bet, usually about an hour before posting on Helltown.

FC Dallas Out, Nashville Maybe

FC Dallas was removed from the tournament after more than half the team tested positive for the coronavirus and now it appears that Nashville SC may be on thin ice.

The "MLS is Back" tournament kicks off tonight with Miami FC taking on Orlando City at 8 pm EST. 

Don Garber will hold this tournament (or hold the positive tests back behind a curtain) even if everyone tests positive.

A host of games have already been rescheduled or changed due to the absence of FC Dallas and Nashville's game getting pushed back, but I'm planning to have a little fun with this tournament by keeping up with the newly posted betting odds on the site.

FC Dallas is Covid Central

Buzz Carrick over at 3rd Degree has been closely covering the mini outbreak of COVID-19 within the FC Dallas team. Here's how he has the timeline of events: 

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June 3 – One player tests positive, the 2nd case in MLS. (Reported by MLS)

June 18-19 – Two more cases while still in Frisco. A 4th suspected case turns out to be some other “old school” illness. One of the two players who tested positive was cleared to return to training and the other did not travel.

June 27 – FCD travels to and arrives in Orlando.

June 28 – FCD holds its first training session and has two positive tests.

June 29 – FCD has one more positive test.

June 30 – FCD has three more positive tests.

July 1 – FCD has four more positive tests: three players and one staffer.

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This sequence of events has Kevin Baxter of the LA Times stating that the "MLS is Back" tournament could be in jeopardy.

The NWSL got underway with one team (The Orlando Pride, ironically enough) not making the trip to the tournament. It's possible that MLS could do the same with FC Dallas, but I doubt they are able to pull it off. The complexity of rescheduling a league of just a handful of teams like the NWSL is completely different than a league of 26. MLS has also assigned value to the group stage games, as they count towards the regular-season standings.

All over the league we see some teams delaying their flights a bit, so I suspect that they might be waiting on more information from MLS offices on a way to move forward. Several of these tests came back positive after the players arrived, and were living in, the Orlando Bubble.

In future reporting, The USA Today stated that all players and staff on FC Dallas tested negative before arriving to Orlando. I don't think you can all the sudden get sick over the course of a short flight. What this says to me is that either MLS didn't test or they thought they wouldn't really get tested in Orlando.

It's important to note that most MLS teams do not have the kind of press coverage that 3rd Degree provides in Dallas. Even if players or staff of most teams test positive, there's nobody asking.

52 Positive Covid tests, MLS

Positive COVID-19 tests are rolling in for MLS in the lead up to the "MLS is Back" tournament next month, ESPN has reported.

18 players and 6 staff members tested positive during local training over the last few weeks and now it has been learned that 26 more players have tested positive prior to traveling to Orlando and another 2 players positive since arrival. 

The two testing positive since arriving at the "bubble" in Orlando is problematic as it requires not only the positive test players to quarantine but other players that have come in close contact as well. According to the ESPN report, MLS has not commented on that.

Summary of positive tests:

24: Return to training (6 staff)

26: Prior to Orlando travel

2: Upon arrival to Orlando

There are no plans to delay or stop the tournament at this time. 

MY THOUGHTS

The league seems hell-bent on holding the tournament. I think if it were up to Garber every player down there could test positive and he'd still hold it. It's probably a matter of the public threshold of how many can test positive. Like, if it starts to fall out of the range of the rest of the area/country. Right now that would probably be around 12+% of overall tests going positive.

Something else that could slow it down is if a popular player gets it and the news pokes out of the normal MLS social media twitter. 

I have two opinions on this whole MLS thing... 1. they are jumping the gun and should have just waited to start later (September) in their normal markets AND 2. MLS is effectively a trial balloon for the rest of the leagues restarting. Namely, the NFL. Where there is a lot of overlap in ownership.

MLS is Back, Crew fans mad!

MLS released a schedule for their "MLS is Back" tournament that kicks off in a couple weeks. 

There is still an air of uncertainty around the start of the event, but Don Garber seems intent on kicking if off regardless of the real facts and/or narrative around the risks of the coronavirus.

Of course, with the release of the schedule, we have Crew fans getting upset with kick-off times and networks.

That's about all I have in me for this news. As for where I'm at with this event... I think MLS is trying to hard to get things started. ESPN just saw record low numbers for the ESPY's, while viewing numbers for NASCAR, horse racing, and golf are about the same as always. In other words, no massive bump for forcing things back.

Florida Covid Increase, Does MLS have a Problem?

CNN, NY Post, Vox, The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, Newsweek, CBS are news outlets that have fresh pieces up on the recent spike in new coronavirus cases in Florida this morning.

Looking at the numbers, it is true. Florida is spiking in new cases, but they are also testing a lot more people. This suggests that the state wants to know if reopening is an okay thing to do. That's good! It also suggests that either more people have always had the virus, they just weren't tested or Florida is in some deep dog do-do.

I've been closely monitoring both Ohio and Virginia since the outbreak, with a focus on deaths. Why that measurement? The one the people say has too much lag? Because I feel that when that figure rests at a very low number for 2+ weeks after re-opening then it may be possible to breathe a little. Both VA and Ohio appear to be close to the other side in that metric.

Early indicators of a new spread show up in other places. Raw new case numbers are a red flag, but more importantly % of new tests that are positive. All three, OH-VA-FL, appear to still be in a decent place with that. All clocking in at or around 5%.

That said, Florida is seeing a % increase alongside its recent increase in testing per day. Over the last few weeks, Virginia and Ohio have been testing around 10k a day. Florida, on the other hand, is testing 30k. Bigger state, more tests, yes. But if you look closely at my chart and the blue Florida line, you'll see it marching up a bit above where it has been.

IMPACT TO COVID CUP

Major League Soccer plans to kick off their Orlando, FL tournament in a couple weeks. With Florida cases on the rise, they might run into some friction. Not only with the general rise in cases, but with the optics of opening among a "second wave."

This might also alert the player's union and possibly cause some players to force their way out of playing (something we are seeing in the NBA). So, it could get messy. Especially if the long-feared second virus wave is matched with new positive tests and reported deaths across the country.

MLS - Covid Cup Details

The groups and stakes are set for a tournament in Orlando, but in splendid MLS form, things are a complete mess.

MLS had hardly just announced a draw format before they provided the first matchup between Orlando City and Miami whatever-their-name-is. A couple hours later the draw happened, but of course more rules. Groups had to consist of teams only from like conferences and instead of groups of 3 with two groups containing 4 (MLS has 26 teams), they inexplicably went with 5 groups of 4 and one group with 6? The image on the right shows how they did it. 

I'll never understand why MLS buries themselves in this stuff. I saw a league employee saying they had no time to put something better together. No shit. You spent 90% of your effort on crafting rules for seeding.

Anyway, the "blind draw" amazingly worked out for the league. Columbus is in a group with Cincy, LAFC with LA Galaxy. Seattle gets Vancouver (tho, no Portland. I guess having all three would look too rigged). Toronto gets Montreal. The as mentioned Orlando v. Miami and I'm sure there is some connection in Group D other than forgotten about teams + Minnesota.

A total of 16 teams will make the knockout stage (top 2 finishers in each group + 4 best 3rd placers).

Group games count towards regular-season standings. The knockout winner gets a ticket to play in the next CONCACAF Champions League + a million dollars.

The 10 teams missing out of the knockout get to go home to families and team training AT THEIR OWN TRAINING FACILITIES. Losers are the winners here.

GROUP A

Eastern Conference

Orlando City SC

Inter Miami CF

New York City FC

Philadelphia Union

Chicago Fire FC

Nashville SC

GROUP B

Western Conference

Seattle Sounders FC

FC Dallas

Vancouver Whitecaps FC

San Jose Earthquakes

GROUP C

Eastern Conference

Toronto FC

New England Revolution

Montreal Impact

D.C. United

GROUP D

Western Conference

Real Salt Lake

Sporting Kansas City

Colorado Rapids

Minnesota United FC

GROUP E

Eastern Conference

Atlanta United FC

FC Cincinnati

New York Red Bulls

Columbus Crew SC

GROUP F

Western Conference

LAFC

LA Galaxy

Houston Dynamo

Portland Timbers

MLS, Union agree to return

After weeks of back and forth that increased with intensity (including a lockout threat) as time passed, Major League Soccer and the Players Association (Union) finally came to an agreement to return to play at some point in the near future.

THE ORLANDO PROJECT

The plan for return to play is one they have been leaking since the height of the pandemic - an Orlando tournament, of sorts, that has a World Cup feel (maybe?). Group stages with knockout stages. It makes sense since they will have to fit it in a small timeframe of 4-6 weeks with the hope being that after it is over things around the country (and Canada) will have returned to "normal" enough to play in home cities.

Here are a few bullet points: 

1. It will be at the ESPN Wide World of Sports complex. I've been twice for MLS preseason, it's a neat place. Lots of fields, soccer, baseball, and an indoor center for basketball as well as cheerleading events (which I witnessed, crazy).

2. Teams will / are training in their home cities and will travel down to Orlando shortly before games begin. 

3. Games are not scheduled yet, but multiple news outlets are reporting that games will begin in early July.

4. There will be no fans.

5. Games will somehow count towards the regular season.

Don Garber is hellbent on getting MLS back on the pitch before the other major men's pro team sports get going. So far, it looks like he will get that, but he has missed the target on returning to play before the other major soccer leagues in Europe and will be a step behind the NWSL, who restart June 27 in Salt Lake City.

Soccer League Return Dates:

NOW: Germany is playing

June 11: Spain

June 17: England (Premier League)

June 20: Italy, English Championship

June 27: NWSL

There is some uncertainty around League 1 and 2 in England restarting at all.

MLS V. UNION

Don Garber made it clear that negotiations were intense, which should come as no surprise when you consider the backdrop of national protests and pandemic. It got so heated that Garber threatened to lock out the players.

Ultimately it took a 5% player pay cut as well as some delay in the implementation of the latest CBA (pushed back to next season). MLS will also mortgage the future a bit by lowering media payouts to players over the next few years.

SOME THOUGHTS

MLS really, really, REALLY wants to fill up an ESPN schedule with live sports content before the big boys get back going. The massive success of the Jordan documentary that pulled down NBA, MLB playoff figures, has sports executives salivating at a perceived pent up demand. That said, there does appear to be a few cracks in that argument as ratings on sports already going (motorsports, Bundesliga) have started to level off.

Nobody really knows how ratings will be, however. I think MLS is really trying to cram this event in and there's nothing in the league's history that tells me they can pull this off smoothly. 

Even with ESPN's hand-holding, I think this event will end up costing the league. Not just financially, but in respect as well. It will be nice to see teams playing again, but it will look like an amateur production. No crowds and really low camera angles. The players will also be out of practice and shape and let's not forget - it will be ORLANDO IN JULY. Games will grind to a sweltering halt in the second half.