MLS is Back, Crew fans mad!

MLS released a schedule for their "MLS is Back" tournament that kicks off in a couple weeks. 

There is still an air of uncertainty around the start of the event, but Don Garber seems intent on kicking if off regardless of the real facts and/or narrative around the risks of the coronavirus.

Of course, with the release of the schedule, we have Crew fans getting upset with kick-off times and networks.

That's about all I have in me for this news. As for where I'm at with this event... I think MLS is trying to hard to get things started. ESPN just saw record low numbers for the ESPY's, while viewing numbers for NASCAR, horse racing, and golf are about the same as always. In other words, no massive bump for forcing things back.

Florida Covid Increase, Does MLS have a Problem?

CNN, NY Post, Vox, The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, Newsweek, CBS are news outlets that have fresh pieces up on the recent spike in new coronavirus cases in Florida this morning.

Looking at the numbers, it is true. Florida is spiking in new cases, but they are also testing a lot more people. This suggests that the state wants to know if reopening is an okay thing to do. That's good! It also suggests that either more people have always had the virus, they just weren't tested or Florida is in some deep dog do-do.

I've been closely monitoring both Ohio and Virginia since the outbreak, with a focus on deaths. Why that measurement? The one the people say has too much lag? Because I feel that when that figure rests at a very low number for 2+ weeks after re-opening then it may be possible to breathe a little. Both VA and Ohio appear to be close to the other side in that metric.

Early indicators of a new spread show up in other places. Raw new case numbers are a red flag, but more importantly % of new tests that are positive. All three, OH-VA-FL, appear to still be in a decent place with that. All clocking in at or around 5%.

That said, Florida is seeing a % increase alongside its recent increase in testing per day. Over the last few weeks, Virginia and Ohio have been testing around 10k a day. Florida, on the other hand, is testing 30k. Bigger state, more tests, yes. But if you look closely at my chart and the blue Florida line, you'll see it marching up a bit above where it has been.

IMPACT TO COVID CUP

Major League Soccer plans to kick off their Orlando, FL tournament in a couple weeks. With Florida cases on the rise, they might run into some friction. Not only with the general rise in cases, but with the optics of opening among a "second wave."

This might also alert the player's union and possibly cause some players to force their way out of playing (something we are seeing in the NBA). So, it could get messy. Especially if the long-feared second virus wave is matched with new positive tests and reported deaths across the country.

MLS - Covid Cup Details

The groups and stakes are set for a tournament in Orlando, but in splendid MLS form, things are a complete mess.

MLS had hardly just announced a draw format before they provided the first matchup between Orlando City and Miami whatever-their-name-is. A couple hours later the draw happened, but of course more rules. Groups had to consist of teams only from like conferences and instead of groups of 3 with two groups containing 4 (MLS has 26 teams), they inexplicably went with 5 groups of 4 and one group with 6? The image on the right shows how they did it. 

I'll never understand why MLS buries themselves in this stuff. I saw a league employee saying they had no time to put something better together. No shit. You spent 90% of your effort on crafting rules for seeding.

Anyway, the "blind draw" amazingly worked out for the league. Columbus is in a group with Cincy, LAFC with LA Galaxy. Seattle gets Vancouver (tho, no Portland. I guess having all three would look too rigged). Toronto gets Montreal. The as mentioned Orlando v. Miami and I'm sure there is some connection in Group D other than forgotten about teams + Minnesota.

A total of 16 teams will make the knockout stage (top 2 finishers in each group + 4 best 3rd placers).

Group games count towards regular-season standings. The knockout winner gets a ticket to play in the next CONCACAF Champions League + a million dollars.

The 10 teams missing out of the knockout get to go home to families and team training AT THEIR OWN TRAINING FACILITIES. Losers are the winners here.

GROUP A

Eastern Conference

Orlando City SC

Inter Miami CF

New York City FC

Philadelphia Union

Chicago Fire FC

Nashville SC

GROUP B

Western Conference

Seattle Sounders FC

FC Dallas

Vancouver Whitecaps FC

San Jose Earthquakes

GROUP C

Eastern Conference

Toronto FC

New England Revolution

Montreal Impact

D.C. United

GROUP D

Western Conference

Real Salt Lake

Sporting Kansas City

Colorado Rapids

Minnesota United FC

GROUP E

Eastern Conference

Atlanta United FC

FC Cincinnati

New York Red Bulls

Columbus Crew SC

GROUP F

Western Conference

LAFC

LA Galaxy

Houston Dynamo

Portland Timbers

MLS, Union agree to return

After weeks of back and forth that increased with intensity (including a lockout threat) as time passed, Major League Soccer and the Players Association (Union) finally came to an agreement to return to play at some point in the near future.

THE ORLANDO PROJECT

The plan for return to play is one they have been leaking since the height of the pandemic - an Orlando tournament, of sorts, that has a World Cup feel (maybe?). Group stages with knockout stages. It makes sense since they will have to fit it in a small timeframe of 4-6 weeks with the hope being that after it is over things around the country (and Canada) will have returned to "normal" enough to play in home cities.

Here are a few bullet points: 

1. It will be at the ESPN Wide World of Sports complex. I've been twice for MLS preseason, it's a neat place. Lots of fields, soccer, baseball, and an indoor center for basketball as well as cheerleading events (which I witnessed, crazy).

2. Teams will / are training in their home cities and will travel down to Orlando shortly before games begin. 

3. Games are not scheduled yet, but multiple news outlets are reporting that games will begin in early July.

4. There will be no fans.

5. Games will somehow count towards the regular season.

Don Garber is hellbent on getting MLS back on the pitch before the other major men's pro team sports get going. So far, it looks like he will get that, but he has missed the target on returning to play before the other major soccer leagues in Europe and will be a step behind the NWSL, who restart June 27 in Salt Lake City.

Soccer League Return Dates:

NOW: Germany is playing

June 11: Spain

June 17: England (Premier League)

June 20: Italy, English Championship

June 27: NWSL

There is some uncertainty around League 1 and 2 in England restarting at all.

MLS V. UNION

Don Garber made it clear that negotiations were intense, which should come as no surprise when you consider the backdrop of national protests and pandemic. It got so heated that Garber threatened to lock out the players.

Ultimately it took a 5% player pay cut as well as some delay in the implementation of the latest CBA (pushed back to next season). MLS will also mortgage the future a bit by lowering media payouts to players over the next few years.

SOME THOUGHTS

MLS really, really, REALLY wants to fill up an ESPN schedule with live sports content before the big boys get back going. The massive success of the Jordan documentary that pulled down NBA, MLB playoff figures, has sports executives salivating at a perceived pent up demand. That said, there does appear to be a few cracks in that argument as ratings on sports already going (motorsports, Bundesliga) have started to level off.

Nobody really knows how ratings will be, however. I think MLS is really trying to cram this event in and there's nothing in the league's history that tells me they can pull this off smoothly. 

Even with ESPN's hand-holding, I think this event will end up costing the league. Not just financially, but in respect as well. It will be nice to see teams playing again, but it will look like an amateur production. No crowds and really low camera angles. The players will also be out of practice and shape and let's not forget - it will be ORLANDO IN JULY. Games will grind to a sweltering halt in the second half. 

Garber Memo about leaks... leaks

The Athletic has been reporting on a steady stream of COVID-19 MLS items in great detail over the last few weeks. From plans to play a tournament (and how) in Orlando to negotiations with the MLSPA - it's all there.

Well, as it turns out, MLS is not directly providing that information like they normally do to get attention. All this information has been leaking out to the press without the authorization of the league and Don Garber appears livid about it.

Last Friday Garber sent a memo (which itself leaked to The Athletic) out to the league that threatened termination and fines up to $1 million dollars for anyone leaking information. Later in the memo it states that Garber has hired an investigative firm to figure out who is leaking information.

Two of the writers at the Athletic have very close ties with MLS. One of them even worked and wrote for MLSSoccer.com. My hunch is that they don't have to go asking for this information, close friends that are likely irritated with plans in Orlando, as well as the proposed and current wages cuts, are passing it along.

MLS ON THE EDGE

Garber added that the leaks could “severely imperil the future of our League.” 

As soon as it became clear that this pandemic lockdown was going to last longer than a couple weeks, I came to the conclusion that MLS was likely going to be in some financial trouble. Gameday revenues are the lifeblood of the league as TV deals still have yet to be more than a small fraction of what others get.

Garber's fury at the leaks is a sign that MLS was likely working out something with ESPN and Disney independent of what the NBA is working on (they want the same thing in Orlando). Not so much a competition, but I think MLS was trying to have a more achievable plan than the NBA. Interestingly, the NBA released a very similar plan within a day of the MLS leak.

With large organizations, the top decisionmakers often don't get the details on their desk until it's polished. They are too busy or don't give two shits what underlings are working on. Now that all the information is out there, everyone at ESPN has a chance to evaluate it and give their two cents (ie. kill it) before it has been completely hashed out. This MLS idea in particular looks far from a finished product.

A basic way to imagine the impact is to think of it as a superhero movie that has a lot of leaks. Or the recent video game leak with the Last of Us 2. In my own career, I've had multiple projects torpedoed before all the kinks were worked out. This happens often with ideas that appear abstract to non-stakeholders.

Once it's out there, EVERYONE will poke holes it in and or steal it. Intellectual property should be guarded well.

It wasn't here with MLS, and they will be paying a huge price.

MLS All-Star Keepsake

My wife brought a Pringles can home the other day that featured the MLS All-Star game that will not be this year (canceled due to pandemic). Pringles has been a fairly recent sponsor of MLS. I see them tagged in VAR Twitter posts.

The cancellation of the all-star game is significant for MLS as it serves as a type of US Soccer trade show where sponsors, media and league employees meet up.

MLS is canceling things

MLS announced Tuesday, May 19th, that the All-Star Game vs. a team of Liga MX All-Stars and the Campeones Cup and Leagues Cup competitions have been canceled for this year.

This decision comes after news started leaking out about LigaMX shutting their season down.

None of these events are more than a few years old, but MLS has been making quite a bit of money off staging games that bring in big Liga MX crowds (bigger than regular MLS games).

Don Garber has expressed interest in merging the two leagues amid Liga MX recently suspending their convoluted promotion and relegation system.

I expect the two leagues to attempt to merge ahead of the 2026 World Cup that takes place in the US, Mexico, and Canada.

ANY MLS RESTART UPDATES

Not since last week. There has been no news on either the 20% player pay cut nor the pie in the sky idea of playing a tournament in Orlando.

Sports have started to get going, however. The Bundesliga started back up last weekend. NASCAR held a race. I think there was a horse racing event. Also, there was a charity golf event that hosted many of the sports stars.

MLS, along with MLB, NBA, and the NHL are still in a holding pattern.

MLS proposes pay cut, reopening

After leaking out a near 50% pay cut a few weeks ago, MLS has submitted a proposal to the player's union to cut pay by 20%. According to ESPN, if the cuts happen on July 1, players would only lose 20% of half seasons pay. The assumption by ESPN is that players will keep 100% of their pay up to that point.

What this means is that players will lose only 20% of half their year's wages. For the league as a whole, that means somewhere around $30m off the top. For a player like Michael Bradley, who made $6.4 million last year, that would mean a $643k pay cut (20% of half a years pay).

I think it's a leap for ESPN (Jeff Carlisle and Noah Davis) to calculate 20% on a half year's pay. I think MLS would sell it as a 10% cut if that were the case so the medicine goes down easier with the MLSPA. My hunch is that this is a straight 20% cut in overall pay.

Regardless, MLS is trying to get the wheels turning on this to stop some of the bleeding.

RE-OPENING

MLS is still only inching back on restarting some sort of season. The last two days we have seen a few different proposals. The one that keeps popping up involves locking players and staff down in Orlando to play games for weeks.

Nothing about this idea passes the first couple of questions. The first being - cost. Most of MLS income comes from game day activities. MLS will go even deeper in the hole with no fans. The second hurdle it can't get over is locking players into a hotel for a long period of time away from families and friends. Never mind that these are 20-30 somethings and there's no way to lock them down.

Ultimately, these ideas are futile. We are still in the middle of this pandemic, not on the other side.

MAKING MATTERS WORSE!

Last thing here is something you've probably picked up on. MLS is negotiating a pay cut while proposing ideas to get back to playing. "Hey employees, I'm cutting your wages and then going to require you to go into a damn moon bubble for a couple months."

Where the heck is leadership in this? It makes no sense. Get ducks in a row about returning to play and then approach players on a pay cut.

I still contend that MLS should push the start of play to the Fall and flip the calendar. There is a great chance that the NFL will officially open the sports country. Let them do it, then start your season in September.

Voices to shut '20 MLS down?

Yesterday, Portland Timbers and Thorns' primary investor, operator, CEO, and member of various committees and boards across the US Soccer landscape said the following via Twitter:

March was bad. April was even harder.  

But I believe May will give us some positive momentum to start a path back. Advancements are close on treatments/therapeutics & data is suggesting Oregon can soon carefully start managing the lifting of local restrictions. 

Stay strong (emoji flexed arm). - Merritt Paulson 

It is mildly surprising is that only a handful of teams have started laying off staff but the "stay strong" sentiment at the end suggests that there may be some wavering hearts among MLS stakeholders.

With reports starting to emerge that suggest that more than 80% of MLS team's revenue comes from gameday activations/activity, it makes perfect sense for investors to look at shutting it down for the year.

The pressure is on, however. Youth development leagues closing for the year along with, now, bottom tier amateur / semi-pro teams in the 82 team USL2 calling it a year and colleges (which supply many of these leagues with players) mulling whether or not to even have in-person fall classes, the writing may be on the wall for the rest.

For loosely held together leagues like (NISA, USL1, NPSL, USASA) logistics of even fielding a roster might even be a bridge too far, let alone playing games.

WHERE IS MLS-COVID

Two weeks ago Don Garber said conversations with the MLS Players Association were just getting started in regards to player pay cuts - but since then it has been silent on the business front (well, until Paulson's tweet).

It's clear that Garber and MLS have decided, at least in the short term, that MLS would try generating forward-looking COVID related content instead of history/past pieces like best player by jersey number, MLS Classics, and endless clips of the old shootouts. It's always a good thing to look forward, but the slight change is a signal that MLS is trying to own the situation they are in instead of just endure it.

Paulson's comments, the silence from MLS and the MLSPA and the shift in content creation leads me to believe that the league is going to hold fast as long as they can in the belief that there will be a way to play games in front of fans.

I believe this puts the league on shaky ground. I don't think fans will be able to watch games this year. The fear of COVID returning in the Fall will be too great and there will be states that enter into another lockdown situation.