Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Best Teenagers in MLS, 2019



Jesus Ferreira (18, F, FC Dallas) and James Sands (19, CB/DM, NYCFC) top my list of performers 19.5 years of age and younger. Jesus is the son of David Ferreira, who some might remember playing for FC Dallas 2009-13. Sands is a player NYC have been nursing for a couple years.

Playing some of the younger talents was a point of emphasis this season after a handful of critical comments must have found their way to corporate office ears.

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How I rated players is simple:

1. Age: have to still be a teen at season's end
2. WhoScored Rating x Helltown Rating = Player rank
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(Transfer Markt value in 000)
AgeNAMETEAMMINSSALARYBirthplace€
18.6Jesus FerreiraFCD1512$70,250Santa Marta, Colombia750
19.1James SandsNYC1225$105,000Rye, New York800
18.8Brenden AaronsonPHI1260$95,809Medford, New Jersey800
18.8Edwin CerrilloFCD828$100,250Waco, Texas300
18.0Julian AraujoLAG649$86,250Lompoc, California200
19.5Chris DurkinDC595$104,167Hampton, Virginia500
18.0Cole BassettCOL865$84,000Littleton, Colorado600
17.2Gianluca BusioSKC530$90,000Greensboro, North Carolina800
17.1Efrain AlvarezLAG355$75,606Los Angeles, California600
18.8Frankie AmayaFCC826$172,000Santa Ana, California300
18.2Thomas RobertsFCD237$138,000Little Rock, Arkansas100
16.2Danny LeyvaSEA188$89,872Las Vegas, Nevada150
19.3Aboubacar KeitaCLB335$110,000Columbus, Ohio50
19.1Andrew CarletonATL64$97,400Powder Springs, Georgia450
16.8Griffin YowDC59$76,368Clifton, Virginia100
18.1Bryan ReynoldsFCD61$70,250Fort Worth, Texas100
17.3Alfonso Ocampo-ChavezSEA82$85,750Fresno, California100
16.5Ricardo PepiFCD18El Paso, Texas0
18.9Mathias JorgensenNYR117$306,250Hundested, Denmark1,000
17.9Justin HaakNYC4$56,250Brooklyn, New York100
17.0Sebastian AndersonCOL272$80,917Sacramento, California200
19.3Michee NgalinaPHI9$56,250Kinshasa, DR Congo175
18.5Luis ArriagaRSL4$56,250Santa Rosa, California75
17.4Gilbert FuentesSJE2$92,000Tracy, California75

FC Dallas has a good track record of playing younger players, it's no different this season. They lead the way with five. Outside of Ferreira, you see that James Sands, playing both as CB and DM and Brenden Aaronson, MF, are making regular contributions to good teams (NYC and PHI are currently 1 and 2 in the standings). Here are the ratings:

AgeNAMETEAMWSHBx-rating
18.6Jesus FerreiraFCD6.805.5838
19.1James SandsNYC6.864.8533
18.8Brenden AaronsonPHI6.494.3928
18.8Edwin CerrilloFCD6.613.1721
18.0Julian AraujoLAG6.972.8920
19.5Chris DurkinDC6.642.6718
18.0Cole BassettCOL6.392.6317
17.2Gianluca BusioSKC6.532.2415
17.1Efrain AlvarezLAG6.402.1614
18.8Frankie AmayaFCC6.591.7812
18.2Thomas RobertsFCD6.381.7211
16.2Danny LeyvaSEA6.471.5110
19.3Aboubacar KeitaCLB6.431.4910
19.1Andrew CarletonATL6.071.368
16.8Griffin YowDC6.131.348
18.1Bryan ReynoldsFCD6.061.358
17.3Alfonso Ocampo-ChavezSEA6.181.228
16.5Ricardo PepiFCD6.161.207
18.9Mathias JorgensenNYR5.951.227
17.9Justin HaakNYC6.071.147
17.0Sebastian AndersonCOL6.191.057
19.3Michee NgalinaPHI5.870.966
18.5Luis ArriagaRSL6.070.916
17.4Gilbert FuentesSJE6.220.815

This is sort of a high-level look, but there's enough here to lead to some digging. Especially with the players towards the top of the list.

Friday, July 19, 2019

Crew Busy Transforming Roster

Looks like the time has finally arrived for Tim Bezbatchenko to be the "Bez" fans here in Columbus expected. These sort of moves can be graded for some time, so, for now, let's say that Bez joins Caleb Porter in the Helltown "Well, he did..." Club. What's that? Consider this historically bad run the team is on and with Porter you get "Well, he did win a Cup with Portland." Bez is in a similar boat; "Well, he did take Toronto from an embarrassment to a Cup."

It's tough to keep track of comings and goings with the team right now, which means the transformation from the Gregg Berhalter/Anthony Precourt team has finally begun. Let's go ahead and list the ones I've noticed...

1. Youness Mokhtar
Signed from a Stabæk, where he had been for just a few months. Running down his resume - he bounces around. Using available information on the player, he looks to be a like for like with Justin Meram. It's possible that Mokhtar's non-MLS experience will finally put someone over the top of Meram's production as players jumping teams and leagues often have a good ability to adapt. Football Manager has him at 69.6, FIFA - 72, WhoScored - 6.48. That puts his median score at 70. Which means, considering age and experience, he will be a quality starter. The only thing that can screw it up would be the coach.

2. Eloy Room, GK In - Joe Bendik, GK Out
Columbus shipped Joe Bendik off to Philly for scrap (allocation, draft pick) after picking up Eloy Room after a good Gold Cup. Room should be fine. I don't expect him to be a Zack Steffen or Steve Clark, but he should be better than Bendik.

3. Romario Williams, Jordan Hamilton - Zardes' Backups
Both Montreal and Atlanta saw something in Romario but he never really got a chance. He is an improvement of what the team has in Patrick Mullins, not sure how much though. Hamilton is just a guy (right now).

4. Luis Díaz
The 3rd Costa Rican to join the team. He is off to a good start. He's young enough that it's tough to tell how good he'll be. He's clearly an upgrade over some of the other players on the team and with him only being 20? Makes him even more valuable. A nice pick up for the team.

That's about all I've got as far as notable recent changes.

Monday, July 15, 2019

Crew Player Scores, Last 10

As Columbus rides out this terrible run, let's take a look at updated "Net Promoter Scores" (NPS) for each player over the last 10 games (4 points from a possible 30).

A quick refresher on my NPS measurement - It takes the % of good games and subtracts the % of bad to get the final score (more can be found HERE) based on WhoScored game ratings.

NPS Example: David Guzman - 10 games

1 Great (10%)
5 Average
4 Poor (40%)
10 Total

NPS Score: 10% - 40% = -30%

NPS Score (July 15th, rounds 12-21)

+50% : Federico Higuain (inj)
+33% : Gyasi Zardes
+25% : Robinho (traded)
+22% : Pedro Santos
+17% : Waylon Francis
+11% : Héctor Jiménez

0% : J.J. Williams
0% : David Accam
0% : Aboubacar K
0% : Connor Maloney
0% : Ricardo Clark
0% : Josh Williams
0% : Wil Trapp
0% : Artur

-20% : Jonathan Mensah
-22% : Gastón Sauro
-25% : Alex Crognale
-25% : Harrison Afful
-29% : Luis Argudo
-30% : David Guzmán
-33% : Patrick Mullins (traded)
-33% : Eduardo Sosa
-33% : Zack Steffen (transfer)
-40% : Niko Hansen
-50% : Joe Bendik 
-67% : Jon Kempin 

Highlighting a few players at the bottom here to show regular starting players that are performing poorly. An important callout: the two center-backs playing in front of the two goalkeepers at the bottom.

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Here is how it look back on June 5th (rounds 1-16)

NPS Score

+53 : Pedro Santos

+33 : Gyasi Zardes
+29 : Federico Higuain
+27 : Waylon Francis
+20 : Harrison Afful
+19 : Robinho
+15 : Artur
+13 : Wil Trapp
+11 : Josh Williams
+9 : Gastón Sauro
+7 : Héctor Jimenez

0 : Zack Steffen
0 : Connor Maloney
0 : Jon Kempin
0 : Lalas Abubakar
0 : Ricardo Clark

-11 : Justin Meram
-13 : Jonathan Mensah
-20 : David Accam
-25 : David Guzman
-33 : Eduardo Sosa
-40 : Luis Argudo
-43 : Niko Hansen
-50 : Patrick Mullins
-67 : J.J. Williams
-100 : Joe Bendik

Friday, July 12, 2019

ESPN Player Survey, Crew Insights

ESPN posted their annual "MLS Confidential" player survey yesterday. Among questions about superheroes, Drake and Netflix there were a couple important questions in relation to the Columbus Crew. Two, to be exact.

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1. Which away game do you dread the most, and why?

New England: 23 percent

Houston: 12 percent
Columbus: 11 percent

Real Salt Lake: 7 percent
Orlando: 5 percent
Kansas City: 4 percent
San Jose: 4 percent
Dallas: 4 percent
Montreal: 4 percent
Vancouver: 4 percent
New York (Red Bulls or NYCFC): 4 percent
Minnesota: 3 percent
Toronto: 3 percent
LA (Galaxy or LAFC): 3 percent

Don't have one/love all road games: 3 percent

Seattle: 2 percent
Colorado: 2 percent
Philadelphia: >1 percent
Atlanta: >1 percent
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This is essentially a question that will never be asked of players... "where don't you want to play." Looking at it that way will go a long way in answering a lot of other questions in your mind.

"Columbus, dull city and black and gray all the time," was the quote from an anonymous player. OUCH, dude. Kinda true, though. Columbus is my adopted home, but that's more out of work/life road of life stuff. I don't have the options a young buck soccer MLS superstar has. If I did? Columbus wouldn't be my desired landing spot - real talk. That said, there are far worse places to wind up.

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3. Who has the best kit in MLS?

LAFC: 26 percent

Atlanta: 16 percent
Sporting KC: 13 percent
Seattle: 11 percent

FC Cincinnati: 6 percent
Orlando: 5 percent
Vancouver: 5 percent
NYCFC: 5 percent
Portland: 4 percent

New York Red Bulls: 2 percent
LA Galaxy: 2 percent
Chicago: 2 percent
Montreal: 2 percent
Real Salt Lake: >1 percent
Chicago: >1 percent
DC United: >1 percent
Minnesota: >1 percent
Toronto FC: >1 percent
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It's more of who isn't on this list that should be concerning. Philly, New England, Columbus, FC Dallas, San Jose, Colorado. Like question number one up there, it looks superficial on the surface, but it's decidedly not. It's players projecting, in a passive way, which team they want to play for.

A MOUNTAIN TO CLIMB

The quick summary here is that there are certain teams in MLS that aren't on the list of places to be. Columbus, Colorado, New England seem to lead the way.

The new Crew investors want to do everything to make things work here in town. At the center of that is a new stadium. I see that sparking interest for a few years, but then drifting off back to what it is now. I'm not sure how to fix it. KC kinda had a run there after the rebrand/new stadium thing, but it seems to be wearing off at a rapid pace now.

Keeping a sports brand fresh is an impossible task for certain cities in the US. It's a goddamn never-ending battle, to be honest. And it's tiresome. The hope here is that soccer adopts a more merit-based league system (of which almost 2/3rds of MLS players want) in the future.