New NWSL TV Deal

The National Women's Soccer League announced the details of their next TV deal yesterday. In effect, this is the league's first "real" media rights package as previous deals likely just covered the costs associated with producing and transmitting games.

The new deal: $60,000,000 per year (NWSL to cover production, rights fees, and marketing).

Networks: CBS Sports, ESPN, Amazon and Scripps Sports

DETAILS

1. 118 games will be aired across the networks.

# Games Breakdown
50 - ION TV (Scripps Sports)
27 - Amazon Prime
21 - CBS family of networks
20 - ESPN family

2. Missing Games: Future league streaming package to include missing games (154+playoffs)-118=36 games plus playoffs in 2024 if the league stays at 22 matches a year.

2a. Teams can seek out local TV deals for the missing games.

2b. The league plans to have a streaming service to catch the remaining games.

3. Interesting to me: It's listed as ESPN and not ABC/Disney. Halfway through this deal, it is expected that ESPN will break away from Disney so there may only be next year that ABC has games.

PERSPECTIVE

Let's break down the numbers a little bit...

$ Breakdown (in millions)
$25.4 - ION TV (Scripps Sports)
13.7 - Amazon Prime
10.7 - CBS family of networks
10.2 - ABC (ESPN family)
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$60m

This works out to be about $500k per game value (what networks paid for each game). The direct comparison here might be MLS (domestic league). MLS has a deal worth $250m per year. They play 493 regular season games, that's also about $500k per game cost to Apple ($250m/493).

Simply put? A single game for both the NWSL and MLS are worth about the same. Inventory the obvious difference.

This makes sense as the NWSL pulled numbers close to MLS on broadcast TV over the last few years (400-500k average range on any given regular season week, according to Nielsen).

The reason I compare MLS to the NWSL is that they are both the "top" domestic leagues in the US. It's interesting that they pull around the same viewership numbers. The only differences that we can see is the NWSL has less inventory (smaller league) and the demographics watching the games (MLS has a better 18-49 demo).

LASTLY

This deal is important to the NWSL in that it stabilizes it a bit. Over the years the league has seen ups and downs and its share of controversy with ownership. The deal isn't forever so the networks are going to be paying close attention to what they can put together as far as production. MLS did well getting things going but when you have Apple behind you - well.

It will be incredibly important that the NWSL get production right. That's finding the right voices and showcasing the game and competition itself. In other words; Let the most popular sport on the planet be the main course. All the other stuff is just salad dressing.

MLS on TV Updates

1. MLS on Apple
Last month Apple announced the price structure for its MLS offering. Retail cost will be $15 per month or $99 a year. Fans with Apple TV+ (ATV+) already can get it for $13/$79. Apple will be giving the person paying for MLS season tickets the application for free.

For whatever reason, they are not allowing customers to purchase the option until Feb. 1, 2023.

The MLS Season Pass application will exist within the Apple TV as a stand-alone service (meaning; an app within the app). Apple TV+ ($7 per month) will show a couple MLS games a week outside of the MLS app.

Apple and MLS will be producing all the matches themselves.

2. ESPN Out, FOX Sticks Around

With Apple more or less buying everything MLS offers on a screen, traditional linear TV companies will not be able to produce games when acquiring rights. More or less this means that they would just be airing the Apple broadcast feed. Since Apple is so large, pretty much every potential media partner is a competitor making it a difficult sell.

After being with MLS since day one 27 years ago, Disney (ABC/ESPN) is out as an MLS TV partner. Going back to the early 90s, you will remember that jumping into MLS was one of Disney's first big buys after taking over ABC. After all these years it is surprising MLS would not do everything possible to keep ESPN on board. ESPN likely knows more about MLS than MLS.

FOX decides to stick around and carry a normal schedule of MLS games. They only signed on for four years, taking them to the 2026 World Cup (to which they own rights). This means they will air around 15 games on big FOX and another dozen or so on FS1/FS2.

No financial details of the FOX deal were given. This likely means FOX is doing this at cost (Free).

3. Leagues Cup

Univision opted to not carry regular season MLS games but will show a "select" amount of Leagues Cup events along with FOX's FS1/2. Univision will likely stick with Club America for as many games as they have in the month-long event.

The Leagues Cup is now a month-long tournament and MLS will suspend their regular season while it is going on.

4. No NFL on Apple

I mention this because the NFL and MLS are very intertwined. MLS was more or less born from the NFL in 1995 and reborn with even stronger ties in 2002. Apple's $2.5b investment into MLS could have been seen as a sort of down payment to carry the NFL's own "Direct Kick" package now that it is up for bid. 

It was announced last night that both parties are stepping away from the negotiating table.

What does this mean? Speculation: I think Apple will probably adjust its MLS product within the next 12 months or so. Either knocking down the price or just offering it as part of the ATV+ sub fee.

Snapshot: F1 / MLS on ESPN '22

Formula 1 signed a new TV Deal with ESPN for a reported $75-90 million, which is right around the same figure ESPN signed MLS to in 2014. Interestingly, F1 was offered more by Amazon, which had ideas on sublicensing rights to linear networks (similar to Apple with MLS), but it was turned down.

The table below shows viewership for F1 and MLS on ESPN from January 1 - June 20, 2022 (more or less YTD).

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000s	Event	Details
1,445	F1 - Race	FORMULA 1 GRAND PRIX L: SAUDI ARABIAN GRAND PRIX
1,396	F1 - Race	FORMULA 1 GRAND PRIX L: MONACO GRAND PRIX
1,353	F1 - Race	FORMULA 1 GRAND PRIX L: BAHRAIN GRAND PRIX
1,003	F1 - Race	FORMULA 1 GRAND PRIX L: EMILIA ROMAGNA GRAND PRIX
964	F1 - Qualifying	FORMULA 1 QUALIFYING L
953	F1 - Qualifying	FORMULA 1 QUALIFYING L
832	F1 - Race	FORMULA 1 GRAND PRIX L: AZERBAIJAN GRAND PRIX
583	F1 - Studio	FORMULA 1 SURROUND L
568	F1 - Race	FORMULA 1 GRAND PRIX L: AUSTRALIAN GRAND PRIX
553	F1 - Studio	FORMULA 1 SURROUND L
382	MLS	MLS REGULAR SEASON L: ATLANTA/NEW ENGLAND
350	F1 - Studio	FORMULA 1 SURROUND L
346	F1 - Studio	FORMULA 1 SURROUND L
318	MLS	MLS REGULAR SEASON L: MIAMI/ATLANTA
275	MLS	MLS REGULAR SEASON L: SEATTLE SOUNDERS/MINNESOTA UNITED FC
252	MLS	MLS REGULAR SEASON L: INTER MIAMI/NEW ENGLAND
245	MLS	MLS REGULAR SEASON L: PORTLAND/ORLANDO
240	MLS	MLS REGULAR SEASON L: NASHVILLE SC/PHILDELPHIA UNION
218	F1 - Studio	FORMULA 1 SURROUND L
208	F1 - Studio	FORMULA 1 SURROUND L
206	MLS	MLS REGULAR SEASON L: LAFC/SPORTING KANSAS CITY
197	MLS	MLS REGULAR SEASON L: CHICAGO V MIN
192	MLS	MLS REGULAR SEASON L: ORLANDO/NEW YORK RED BULLS
191	MLS	SOCCER MLS PRE-GAME STUDIO L
190	MLS	MLS REGULAR SEASON L
154	MLS	MLS REGULAR SEASON L: AUSTIN/INTER MIAMI
153	MLS	MLS REG SEASON PRELUDE L

source: showbuzzdaily

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The general observation here is that each F1 Race pulls a "MLS Cup Final" number. Outside of that event, MLS viewership swims down around 300-400k on ESPN with highs rarely reaching over 500k and certainly never over one million (outside of the cup final).  

I don't know how many races are left for ESPN to air this year, but the F1 season continues on through the fall.

Flipping through MLS figures over the years, I would expect that an MLS deal on ESPN would be worth less than a quarter of F1's new deal ($15-20m or so) had ESPN made a bid for their rights.

As it stands, ESPN (and all other linear networks, for that matter) is set to drop MLS altogether in 2023.

Top US Cable Soccer programs Thurs Oct 23 - Thurs Oct 29

 

Top US Cable Soccer programs Thurs Oct 23 - Thursday, Oct 29
Viewers (000)	Event/Game	Network	Date
367	PREMIER LEAGUE L: EVERTON/SOUTHAMPTON	NBCSN	Oct 25, 2020
325	PREMIER LEAGUE L: CRYSTAL PALACE/FULHAM	NBCSN	Oct 24, 2020
313	UEFA CHAMP LEAGUE: JUVENTUS VS BARCELONA	TUDN	Oct 28, 2020
303	LIGA MX SAT 2: AMERICA VS. ATLAS	TUDN	Oct 24, 2020
273	PREMIER LG LIVE STUDIO	NBCSN	Oct 25, 2020
218	LIGA MX SAT: TIGRES UANL VS. FC JU?REZ	TUDN	Oct 24, 2020
209	MLS REGULAR SEASON L: TIMBERS/GALAXY	ESPN	Oct 28, 2020
207	UEFA CHAMP LEAGUE: BORUSSIA VS. REAL MADRID	TUDN	Oct 27, 2020
184	PREMIER LG LIVE STUDIO	NBCSN	Oct 26, 2020
149	PREMIER LEAGUE L: WEST BROM/BRIGHTON	NBCSN	Oct 26, 2020
148	LIGA MX L: PACHUCA / UNAM	TUDN	Oct 26, 2020
127	LIGA MX L: PUEBLA / LEON	TUDN	Oct 23, 2020
124	LIGA MX L: QUERETARO / NECAXA	TUDN	Oct 24, 2020
105	PREMIER LG LIVE STUDIO	NBCSN	Oct 25, 2020
96	MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER: ORLANDO/ATLANTA UTD	FS1	Oct 28, 2020
95	UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAG: LOKOMOTIV VS FC BAYERN	GALAVISION	Oct 27, 2020
89	UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAG: ATLETICO VS SALZBURG	GALAVISION	Oct 27, 2020
83	UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE: AC MILAN / SPARTA PRAHA	TUDN	Oct 29, 2020
79	LIGA MX L: CLUB ATLETICO SAN LUIS / MAZATLAN	TUDN	Oct 29, 2020
77	UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAG: UNITED VS RB LEIPZIG	GALAVISION	Oct 28, 2020
69	PREMIER LG LIVE STUDIO	NBCSN	Oct 24, 2020

ESPN Player Survey, Crew Insights

ESPN posted their annual "MLS Confidential" player survey yesterday. Among questions about superheroes, Drake and Netflix there were a couple important questions in relation to the Columbus Crew. Two, to be exact.

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1. Which away game do you dread the most, and why?

New England: 23 percent

Houston: 12 percent
Columbus: 11 percent

Real Salt Lake: 7 percent
Orlando: 5 percent
Kansas City: 4 percent
San Jose: 4 percent
Dallas: 4 percent
Montreal: 4 percent
Vancouver: 4 percent
New York (Red Bulls or NYCFC): 4 percent
Minnesota: 3 percent
Toronto: 3 percent
LA (Galaxy or LAFC): 3 percent

Don't have one/love all road games: 3 percent

Seattle: 2 percent
Colorado: 2 percent
Philadelphia: >1 percent
Atlanta: >1 percent
-----------

This is essentially a question that will never be asked of players... "where don't you want to play." Looking at it that way will go a long way in answering a lot of other questions in your mind.

"Columbus, dull city and black and gray all the time," was the quote from an anonymous player. OUCH, dude. Kinda true, though. Columbus is my adopted home, but that's more out of work/life road of life stuff. I don't have the options a young buck soccer MLS superstar has. If I did? Columbus wouldn't be my desired landing spot - real talk. That said, there are far worse places to wind up.

-----------
3. Who has the best kit in MLS?

LAFC: 26 percent

Atlanta: 16 percent
Sporting KC: 13 percent
Seattle: 11 percent

FC Cincinnati: 6 percent
Orlando: 5 percent
Vancouver: 5 percent
NYCFC: 5 percent
Portland: 4 percent

New York Red Bulls: 2 percent
LA Galaxy: 2 percent
Chicago: 2 percent
Montreal: 2 percent
Real Salt Lake: >1 percent
Chicago: >1 percent
DC United: >1 percent
Minnesota: >1 percent
Toronto FC: >1 percent
-----------

It's more of who isn't on this list that should be concerning. Philly, New England, Columbus, FC Dallas, San Jose, Colorado. Like question number one up there, it looks superficial on the surface, but it's decidedly not. It's players projecting, in a passive way, which team they want to play for.

A MOUNTAIN TO CLIMB

The quick summary here is that there are certain teams in MLS that aren't on the list of places to be. Columbus, Colorado, New England seem to lead the way.

The new Crew investors want to do everything to make things work here in town. At the center of that is a new stadium. I see that sparking interest for a few years, but then drifting off back to what it is now. I'm not sure how to fix it. KC kinda had a run there after the rebrand/new stadium thing, but it seems to be wearing off at a rapid pace now.

Keeping a sports brand fresh is an impossible task for certain cities in the US. It's a goddamn never-ending battle, to be honest. And it's tiresome. The hope here is that soccer adopts a more merit-based league system (of which almost 2/3rds of MLS players want) in the future.

The Cable Apocalypse

We've been talking about this since the dawn of the public internet back in the mid-90s and it appears it is finally here: People (households) are finally dropping pay TV (cabled) subscriptions.

How fast are consumers "cutting the cord"? Fast. It's going to take a while for it to completely die off (if ever) but it is clear that within this particular industry, cable has finally seen her day. She'll now spend her time attempting to mitigate the damage in the coming years.

GM was the face of the slowly dying American auto industry between the mid-60s through the 90s and now ESPN is emerging in that role for cable. Looking at the information in the table below you can see how it is warranted. Between ESPN and ESPN2 the "worldwide leader" has lost around 14 million subscribers from a couple years ago. More than any of the other top 5 networks.

[Figures in millions, sorted by most subscribers in 2015 to least]

NETWORK	OCT 2011	OCT 2012	OCT 2013	OCT 2014	OCT 2015	5-YR CHANGE	3-YR CHANGE
TBS	99,796	99,375	100,489	97,036	94,602	-5.20%	-5.86%
TNT	99,011	98,430	99,294	95,870	93,294	-5.77%	-6.04%
ESPN	98,648	98.179	98,891	95,256	91,772	-6.97%	-7.20%
ESPN2	98,470	98,126	98,861	95,233	91,679	-6.90%	-7.26%
TruTV	91,407	91,796	92,343	90,138	90,023	-1.51%	-2.51%
FS1	77,394	80,792	90,121	85,186	84,434	9.10%	-6.31%
NBCSN	74,989	78,068	79,145	81,767	83,623	11.51%	5.66%
Golf	82,934	83,944	82,964	79,841	77,077	-7.06%	-7.10%
ESPNU	71,948	73,258	75,603	73,882	71,445	-0.70%	-5.50%
ESPNews	73,264	74,319	75,829	72,666	69,744	-4.80%	-8.02%
NFL Network	56,550	62,093	72,464	72,203	69,032	22.07%	-4.74%
MLB Network	67,220	69,811	71,026	69,882	66,564	-0.98%	-6.28%
NBATV	54,400	59,845	59,950	57,566	53,933	-0.86%	-10.04%
FS2	31,750	35,943	37,271	44,840	47,827	50.64%	28.32%
ESPN Classic	32,648	31,219	30,826	27,012	24,917	-23.68%	-19.17%

Source: Sports Business Journal, October 26-November 1, 2015

Some of that they can't control. Channel bundling is the lifeblood of cable providers and the ESPN has seen their channels moved to the more premium packages. The exact reasons for that are locked away at the highest levels, but one can make educated guesses on why that might be.

You can tell from the figures above the whole model is shrinking at an accelerated rate year to year. It's possible it will level off with the bottom rising (like FS2 and NBCSN) and top falling but I expect that is years away.

From my view, it comes down to self-preservation within the cable industry. ESPN is expensive and is almost exclusively sports programming. Not everyone likes sports, shockingly. And even if they do, they don't necessarily need a 24-hour sport channel and would happily get news from the web or occasionally watch a NFL game on free TV or a NBA game in-between their favorite non-sports shows on TBS or TNT.

The days of non-sports fans paying for sports channels is ending. Bad news for teams/athletes and their salaries. https://t.co/4VQePBkuCG

— J. Justin Boggs (@jjboggs) December 19, 2015

Cable will be hemorrhaging subscribers over the next five years. Winners and losers will be decided by who best figures out how to drive customers to internet subscriptions. HBO appears to be the first from traditional cable to figure it out but there will be others here soon as people trim down their packages.

ESPN3 or Watch ESPN has been around for some time now, but it is anchored to a traditional cable subscription for use. It was only this year that ESPN has decided to unbundle and allow a standalone service via Sling TV. Very limited and right now that comes at a premium price. Unfortunately, for ESPN, their quality has been poor for a number of years.

I don't expect people to pay a large monthly fee for any sports channel, let alone one that has stagnated for a decade in terms of quality. They didn't see the writing on the wall when they lost talents like Dan Patrick, Keith Olbermann and Rich Eisen (and more recently Colin Cowherd) yet continued to pay record amounts for programming.

The losers here will be channels. Content providers. "Cable" will live on as an internet provider, no question. I'm not sure they are concerned about that model, at the moment.

Last item here to note is that Total Pay TV in US households has dropped -3.89% over the last five years with an acceleration... -4.54% over the last three, while at the same time total US households has increased by +1.48% in last five and +0.52 in three. What that means is the % of cable in homes is dropping very quickly.

Hold on to something.