Competitive Issue Keeping Crew Alive

Despite a remarkably poor run of results this year, Columbus still has some hope of something this year. MLS pretty much is designed to ensure that this is the case. Split tables and 60% of teams enter the season end MLS Cup are there and actually make it hard to be completely out of things. But there are other things not quite on the surface that create the bingo hopper nature of the MLS table.

Scheduling is the main drivers after East/West table and large contingent of teams making the postseason. During the summer there is always one Cup or another that pulls away the better players in the league (or at least distracts them greatly). On top of that you have unbalanced scheduling that jumbles it up.

On of the things new fans of the league first notice about the table is that West teams float to the top of the table. You hear things like "the East is garbage" and the like. Nobody ever seems to ask why this is. WHY is the West always at the top of the table? Are they just better? ... No.

West teams have a massive competitive advantage in that they play Eastern and Central teams late in the evening.

A normal non-night MLS game is just like any normal soccer match. Home team wins by an average of about 0.40 goals per game with the home team taking an average of 1.75 points per game. Figures fairly in line with the rest of the world in the sport (save for some leagues in Africa). Things change completely when you tease out traveling East teams playing late at night on the West coast.

1.75 PPG, +0.39 GD - Home Teams, Non-Night Games
2.10 PPG, +0.83 GD - West Teams vs. East/Central, Night Games

That's huge. To put it a different way, West teams have only lost twice from 29 this year to visiting teams from another time zone playing after 9 PM EST.

KEEPING COLUMBUS IN IT

It's helping out Crew SC at the moment. They competition from the MLS Cup playoffs are playing a lot more of these late night West games then they are. DC, Montreal and the NY Red Bulls have each played three. Philly and the Fire have two and Orlando, New England, Toronto have each played one.

Just last night saw three EST teams play after 10 PM. Two ended in a draw and another (TFC) lost to a 9 man San Jose. All of these results have helped the Crew who haven't had to play a late one yet.

EAST TEAMS WILL CLIMB BACK UP

Only six more late night games for East teams (11 for Central) to go this year. Columbus, Revs, NYC, NYRB and Orlando each have one and Chicago has two. So, eastern teams will see some improvement in points and goals by the end of the year.

I don't see it helping or hurting Columbus from this point forward, however. Crew will have to stay in it minus the little bit of help they've gotten from scheduling so far.

Crew SC: WS Rating Update

Change in median WhoScored player ratings year to year for Crew SC players. While it is just one rating system, I think it is representative of the change in results and form from last year.

Anything over a 7.00 on the WS scale means the player is performing pretty well. Players in the 7.25 range are having / had an above average year. Callouts under table...

Player	2014	2015	2016	15-16 Diff	% Change
Mohammed Saeid		6.41	6.70	0.29	5%
Federico Higuaín	7.37	7.14	7.25	0.12	2%
Justin Meram	7.12	7.25	7.22	-0.03	0%
Harrison Afful		7.24	7.20	-0.05	-1%
Tyson Wahl	6.88	7.01	6.95	-0.06	-1%
Cedrick		6.47	6.37	-0.11	-2%
Steve Clark	7.26	7.13	6.97	-0.15	-2%
Chad Barson	6.84	6.63	6.48	-0.15	-2%
Héctor Jiménez	6.79	6.64	6.38	-0.26	-4%
Wil Trapp	7.04	7.15	6.84	-0.31	-4%
Tony Tchani	7.26	7.31	6.92	-0.39	-5%
Waylon Francis	7.04	7.34	6.85	-0.49	-7%
Michael Parkhurst	7.04	7.13	6.65	-0.48	-7%
Ethan Finlay	7.23	7.04	6.49	-0.56	-8%
Gastón Sauro		7.65	7.04	-0.61	-8%
Kei Kamara		8.09	7.38	-0.72	-9%
Ola Kamara			6.89
Cristian Martínez			6.78
Corey Ashe			6.64
Amro Tarek			6.19
Dilly Duka			6.17
Ben Swanson			6.13
Emil Larsen			6.05
Rodrigo Saravia			6.04
Conor Casey			5.61

1. Saeid jump is due to more playing time as a starter. 6.70 is a mediocre score. I like Saeid. If he had an offseason in a CM role, it could work. Haven't seen much from him as an attacking mid, however.

2. Higuain and Meram are extremely valuable to this team. Feather in Meram's cap that he hasn't dipped with all the injuries around him.

3. Trapp's performances are not up to his standard.

4. Finlay has not adjusted to play without Higuain on the pitch. Just not contributing like they need him to. I'd put him back out there when Higuain is healthy. Use him as a sub if a spark is needed till then.

5. Sauro and Kei are the reason's Crew made the final last year. Higuain as well, but those two were in a separate class. Without them, this team is not good.

6. The team needs Higuain back to get consistent results and pull themselves out of last. In order to make the playoffs they need Sauro back with 10 games left.
---------------------------

I like using the median score of a player because it tells me what I'll likely get from the player on any given night. I've been close to these WS ratings for 3 years now, I like them. Not perfect (and don't get hung up on the exact number!), but they do a fine job of painting a picture when used in this way.

Crew Roster in Shambles

Larsen

They say to not lose track of the basics. For some teams that might be as simple as player positioning, passing, shooting. For others, you have to walk it back further. Being able to travel a full roster of 18 players is as basic as it gets and the Crew were not able to do that for the second time this year.

Columbus has injuries to four players, which hurts, but MLS teams are allowed to carry up to 28 players on their senior roster. The league also allows teams to have an affiliate or a "II" (reserve) team in USL (3rd tier) to help in these situations. 

Right now Crew SC are sitting on 24 players. Let's do the quick math as to why things have gotten here. How about we start with recent player disputes / mishandles with the organization...

1. Emanuel Pogatetz - Option officially declined on December 7, 2015. Just a day after the MLS Cup final (league rules, likely). But problems arose much earlier in the year. Somehow he managed to get into the coaches doghouse and never made it back out. The drama / weirdness lasted most of the year last year, which is why he's on this list. Never want to let that stuff fester.

2. Romain Gall - Waived in February 2016. Not so much a dispute (though, there was some smoke) as it was just a failure to do anything with a promising young player that they went after (same thing with Ben Swanson, you could say). Columbus, as an organization, hung him out to dry. He's playing with Nykopings BIS (Swedish first division) right now.

3. Amro Tarek - Waived, May 5, 2016. This one just didn't work out. He wanted playing time (he totally would have had it by now!), but didn't get it. He must have been promised time. He's back playing in Egypt.

4. Kei Kamara - Traded May 12, 2016. We all know this one. Open dispute about an incident on the field with Federico Higuain. The team made it seem like it was more deeply rooted than that, but they were the one's that gave him a big DP contract a couple months prior. 

5. Emil Larsen... sent back in his homeland due to a dispute over playing time. Technically, he is still on the roster, but we will not be seeing him back. From Transfermarkt to FIFA 16 and Football Manager, everything pointed to him being a starter. He didn't get his time. Got chirpy and Crew sent him packing, likely because they learned a lesson from the Pogatetz situation.

-------------------------------------

Now, on to the current roster. Key missing players due to injury, suspension or international travel.

-------------------------------------

1. Federico Higuain - Sports Hernia. He's out for a few more weeks still. Likely longer. It's amazing how much of the midfield he held together. It's exposing Ethan Finlay (and, perhaps, Wil Trapp). Shoes too big to fill right now.

2. Gaston Sauro - Knee. Key to helping the team get to the MLS Cup last year. Smart player, but appears brittle. With the team running off Amro Tarek, it leaves depth at center back completely thin.

3. Conor Casey - Probably various injuries. This signing felt like an old MLS vet signing a buddy. It's fine, but Casey shouldn't really be considered a viable option behind your starter. He is right now, so his injury is costing the team.

4. Cristian Martinez - International Duty. 

5. Matt Pacifici - Injury. 3rd string keeper.

6. Ben Swanson - Caught in no-mans land.

7. Tyson Wahl - Suspension. Should be back next week.

OPEN ITEMS

Resolving player issues. It was interesting to see Steve Clark taunting Kei Kamara yesterday in the second half (before he scored on him) then after the game watching Kei hugging Mo Saeid and chatting up a couple other Crew players. From the outside looking in? Things don't look fixed.

Signing players. Dilly Duka was an immediate necessity. It's difficult to find free agents laying around this time of year that can go right away. 

Things working against signing players. Crew are 19th on a 20 team table. Good players probably aren't knocking down the door to come. You'll have to find players without options and want playing time. You also have the very public dispute with Kei Kamara that pulled in dark clouds. Players see this stuff. 

Lack of reserve team. This is number one on the list, really. It's been on my list of issues since they dropped the reserve team a few years ago. Look at the players Gregg Berhalter is relying on right now. Ethan Finlay, Justin Meram, Tony Tchani and even Chad Barson. Old reserve stalwarts I would go watch back in 2012-13 that everyone made fun of took a team to the MLS Cup final. Right now, there is nothing. The affiliations have not worked out (likely been more of a burden). The well runneth dry now. It needs fixed. 

This whole post is the reason for a reserve team. Player issues and injuries happen to every team, it's how well prepared you are to deal with them that makes the difference.

Crew Notes before tonight's match...

Sitting down to do this one because there is a thing about to happen that hasn't happened in Columbus for a long time (possibly has never happened, but my records only go back to 2007, which is plenty far since this league changes so much year to year).

1. Ola Kamara Scoring Record. Gregg Berhalter wondered why his scoring record hasn't gotten more attention (Columbus Dispatch, July 9, 2016). There are a couple reasons for this. Okay, maybe three. First off - He's only played 609 minutes. He's on fire! But he won't start pinging any spreadsheet warrior's radars until he hits 900. 2nd. He's only got goals (7), no assists and has never registered more than one Key Pass in a match so far. Kei Kamara was regularly involved in the run of play. Holding up play or distributing a key pass or header. Ola is a straight up lethal goal scorer. Lastly, Ola has passion to spare, but he looks like one of those placeholder headshots for players in FIFA 16. "Robot-y." Harsh, I guess. But Kei, by comparison, had personality and an amazing, unique look. He also played happy.

2. Where is Wil Trapp? (or) Time for Wil Trapp! When a team loses a couple top players you usually look for other guys to pick up the baton. Both behind (CBs out) and in front (Higuain out) puts Trapp kinda in no-man's land, but you would think he would grow into a larger role. Instead, overall play has leveled off (outside of turnovers, which have tripled this year). Maybe it's a coaching issue. Maybe it's just him being so locked into his ways. Not sure. He's a good player, no question. But he's not getting better. If he wants that USMNT spot, he'll have to do that. Also, not be on a really bad team.

3. This team needs help. Even if it's just warm, healthy bodies.

4. Last one. There's a chance that Columbus drops to the bottom of the combined MLS table tonight. I've never seen that at any point during any season I've been tracking it (since 2011). It's amazing how with modern sports they've got it figured out how you can feel good about a last place team. Or if you are critical of a bad run or bad season that you look like Mr dark clouds. Last is Last. Completely and totally unacceptable in MLS. The team needs to unwind what has happened now that they are in this position. Anthony Precourt knows this. Ohio sports fans are notoriously positive about their teams. Perhaps it's because they are familiar to bad pro teams and always have the Buckeyes to fall back on.

Eventually, a losing record catches up to you and hits you where it hurts (attendance and engagement with fans). What's interesting is that we've never really seen a Columbus team out of the hunt by the team Ohio State University football starts up. At least, not in recent years. It'd be a strange place for all involved. Especially for new operator of the team who isn't complete in-tune with this funny dynamic.

Pressure is on! And it feels kinda good, in a weird way. MLS is a league usually bereft of pressure save for late on. But here we are. Can someone step up and win a few to lift the team?

Hejduk told me the exact same thing

You guys need to hang in there and believe the team can turn it around/ had a great visit with Greg- class guy #crew https://t.co/crc0wXQc5p

— Eric Wynalda (@EricWynalda) July 4, 2016

Only it was about supporting the players towards the end of Robert Warzycha's career with Columbus. Takeaway? There's some stress. Of course Gregg Berhalter can turn it around and, by all accounts, he's a good family man. Gregg and brother Jay are US Soccer royalty. Columbus is lucky to have him.

Crew Lose, Updated WhoScored Ratings

The disjointedness created by injury, drama and various international summer breaks were on display last night as Columbus Crew SC was unable to hang onto a one-goal lead heading into halftime in KC.

Columbus not being able to hold a lead, particularly in the 2nd half, is something I took a look at recently. It's a major concern for a team that has many to address. Is it quality? Not enough players? Lacking the proverbial "will to win?" I'm not sure. Injuries are certainly an issue, particularly in the back, but Gregg Berhalter did more with less just last year.

Something that has become curious to me is the lack of playing time Waylon Francis is getting. The first choice right now is MLS veteran Corey Ashe. He's been serviceable, for the most part, but very far from the standard of Francis.

Although it hasn't be commented upon, it's very clear that Francis was benched after an uncharacteristically poor Round 9 performance against Montreal. Since then, it's been Ashe who has filled the left-back role (save for Rd 13).

The same approach has seemingly been taken with Tony Tchani. Round 4 was his piss poor match. From there he announced that he was not going to be playing for the US and (ahem) picked up a calf bruise that kept him off the regular rotation until two weeks ago.

What this leads us to is another issue. Key players not stepping up to fill the void left either by injury or intra-team drama. This falls on both captains - Michael Parkhurst and Wil Trapp. Performances have been below standard and they haven't been able to pull together the group (ie. issues above along with Emil Larsen and Amro Tarek leaving the team). These things fall on leadership.

You see in the box plot at the top that Justin Meram, Federico Higuain, Harrison Afful, Steve Clark, Gaston Sauro and Ola Kamara are having fine seasons. I say "fine" because it's just that. Last year the team had players with "great" seasons.

Trapp, Parkhurst, Ashe, Ethan Finlay and Cedrick have fallen off pace.

-----------------------------------------
Here are best and worst performances so far this year, according to WhoScored:

TOP 10 (starters only):
9.90 : Justin Meram - Rd 6, NYC
9.62 : Kei Kamara - Rd 9, MTL
9.53 : Ola Kamara - Rd 12, RSL
8.42 : Federico Higuaín - Rd 12, RSL
8.32 : Justin Meram - Rd 4, FCD
8.12 : Tony Tchani - Rd 3, CHI
8.09 : Justin Meram - Rd 9, MTL
7.99 : Ethan Finlay - Rd 6, NYC
7.96 : Ola Kamara - Rd 16 SKC
7.95 : Ethan Finlay - Rd 13, PHI

BOTTOM 10 (starters only):

5.15 : Tyson Wahl - Rd 16, SKC

5.41 : Michael  Parkhurst - Rd 6, NYC

5.55 : Justin Meram - Rd 15, NYR

5.71 : Ethan Finlay - Rd 9, MTL

5.74 : Ethan Finlay - Rd 5, MTL

5.81 : Mohammed Saeid - Rd 13, PHI

5.84 : Waylon Francis - Rd 1, PDX

5.89 : Héctor Jiménez - Rd 13, PHI

5.92 : Ethan Finlay - Rd 14, MTL

5.92 : Michael  Parkhurst - Rd 16, SKC

Interesting to see Finlay struggle in the three games against Montreal. His speed advantage taken away there, I think. A name you don't see on either list is Wil Trapp. Consistency is his middle name and very important to that position, but we aren't seeing the very good Trapp of 2014/15.

MLSPU, Wrapped Around the Axle

After years of waiting for change to come from US Soccer and MLS, three youth clubs got together to sue the MLS Players Union (MLSPU) in attempt to get the ball rolling on training compensation and solidarity payments. Are they to win this suit, it would alter the face of youth development in the United States.

Vice Sports was first on the scene with the report. A good (and quick) summary of the suit can be found at Empire of Soccer. The key to including the names in the suit is at the bottom of the Empire report, but I'll repeat it here because it is important.

The three clubs released a joint statement regarding the players cited in the case: “The US Youth Clubs had to name the players, Dempsey, Yedlin and Bradley, as well as the defendant class of players, solely for a legal reason to maintain the Complaint. Our clubs have no desire to, in essence, sue their own kids and don’t really believe the players are needed here to resolve this, but the law is what it is. The US Youth Clubs have asked the MLSPU to stipulate that the players are not needed to maintain this action and if they agree, the US Youth Clubs will immediately drop the players.”

The reason that statement is important is because the MLSPU believes they are under attack from the very source of their players (and dues!). It'd be like the builders of the free spring the MLS drinks from deciding that they should be compensated for their free water.

The way payments in the US work now runs counter (surprise, surprise) to the way it's run in most of the rest of the world. The US is, in my opinion, backward in the way it handles youth development as a whole (ie. colleges and pay-to-play models).

Those smarter and more wise can explain why the suit is coming against the MLSPU and not the league itself. You could argue that they are two in the same, but my hunch is that taking on the union is the best way to make this happen.

A suit against MLS is a suit against the US Soccer Federation and they are entrenched with all the power of all the other pro leagues in this country. Secondly, and frankly, the MLSPU likely hasn't recovered from its last battle with MLS over the latest CBA. Dan Kennedy called it "untimely" in his statement responding to the suit.

The way training compensation and solidarity payments happen across the globe is simple. Team signs player --> clubs that had a hand in developing the player get a small cut of the fee. If you want to read more on it, head over HERE.

At the heart of the matter is MLS. Nobody gets anything in the US when a player signs with MLS. When a player winds up transferring overseas, MLS gets the compensation regardless of where the player learned how to play.

So, for example, when Tottenham Hotspur sign a player from the Seattle Sounders, training fees are paid but MLS keeps them. The clubs that built the player get nothing. On top of that, the league keeps most of the total actual transfer fee as well.

The growth of the NASL and USL are part of changing this conversation. Traditionally, at least for the last 20 years, MLS has had their hands on most players. That's changed a bit and large fees are being paid in leagues below them now - in some cases, like with Kwadwo Poku, away from MLS for more money (which demonstrates how mixed up this all is).

Bob Foose, Executive Director of the Players Union (and a name that many longtime watchers of the sport in the US recognize) offered a sharp response to the suit late yesterday, calling it a "shakedown for money." It sounds like something out of a kids movie, but it's how unions (sports or otherwise) talk. Their audience is the rank and file, not the offices of the NY Times or Washington Post.

Columbus Crew SC's own all-star Ethan Finlay, a spokesperson for the union, echoed Foose's words saying, "It’s absurd that they would try to shake down the very few players who come through their ranks and go on to play professionally. It is a shame that they have chosen to go this route."

I'm not sure if Finlay is playing the part of company man here or he is unaware how this would benefit future generations of player greatly. I'm hoping he is going with his heart. If it's with the MLSPU, that's okay, but I don't think he knows the potential impact of unblocking payments to developmental clubs in this country.

The lawsuit has the MLSPU all wrapped around the axle right now. I'm not sure they expected it, nor are they equipped to handle it, nor did they educate themselves before responding.

It might not come directly from this lawsuit, but this issue will eventually be resolved in favor of the youth clubs (and therefore, in favor of development in the US). The sport is too large and too rich to be completely controlled by one entity and a handful of people at the top.

We are seeing a change in the traditional thinking of player development in this country. Not just with soccer, but in the college and university system that other professional sports hold on to as well.

Top Rated Copa / Euro

No surprise that USA and Mexico dominated the summer soccer tournament cable TV ratings this summer. Viewership grew with each passing round. Leading the way was the USA v. Argentina match on FS1 with 2.7 million viewers, followed by USA v Ecuador (1.9m), USA v Paraguay (1.8m), Mexico v Jamaica (1.8m), Mexico v Chile (1.6m).

The only game to crack the top seven between EURO 2016 and Copa America was the Argentina v. Chile final with 2.5 million viewers (+ another 1.6 from UDN).

Putting Mexico and USA aside, what are the most watched games between the two tournaments (so far, as EURO is still going)?

Viewers : Tournament : Event - Network
2,529 : COPA : ARGENTINA / CHILE - FS1
1,608 : COPA : F: ARGENTINA / CHILE - UDN
1,593 : EURO : CROATIA / PORTUGAL - ESPN
1,403 : EURO : GERMANY / SLOVAKIA - ESPN
1,359 : EURO : WALES / NORTHERN IRELAND - ESPN
1,263 : EURO : HUNGARY / BELGIUM - ESPN
1,217 : COPA : COLOMBIA / CHILE - UDN
1,200 : EURO : ENGLAND / RUSSIA - ESPN
1,168 : EURO : GERMANY / UKRAINE - ESPN
1,157 : COPA : ARGENTINA / CHILE - UDN
1,095 : EURO : PORTUGAL / AUSTRIA - ESPN
1,035 : COPA : ARGENTINA / VENEZUELA - FX
1,009 : EURO : FRANCE / REPUBLIC OF IRELAND - ESPN
995 : COPA : ARGENTINA / VENEZUELA - UDN
985 : COPA : BRAZIL / PERU - UDN
983 : EURO : SWITZERLAND / FRANCE - ESPN
971 : COPA : COLOMBIA / CHILE - FS1
970 : COPA : COLOMBIA / COSTA RICA - UDN
968 : EURO : ICELAND / HUNGARY - ESPN