Make the Right Crew Move, Or Not

With player exit interviews supposedly complete and the last day of club organized 2012 training over it's time take these passing nods and winks coming out of the Columbus Crew press mill and write about it, like any blogger should. "Read the tea leaves," as they say. Fair enough, perhaps I should. Or... how about we take the tea leaves and brew 'em into a poisonous concoction.

Adam Jardy of the Columbus Dispatch is reporting that Defensive Mid-Fielder Cole Grossman's "Future With Crew Uncertain".

Cole Grossman out performed every other Defensive Mid-Fielder on the Columbus Crew in 2012.

1. % of Total Possible Pts Earned as Starter

73% : Cole Grossman
56% : Danny O'Rourke
53% : Chris Birchall
46% : Eric Gehrig
44% : Milovan Mirosevic
38% : Tony Tchani
33% : Kevan George

2. Goal Difference per Start

+1.00 : Cole Grossman
+0.17 : Danny O'Rourke
+0.00 : Chris Birchall
-0.04 : Milovan Mirosevic
-0.14 : Tony Tchani
-0.25 : Kevan George
-0.38 : Eric Gehrig

3. Avg Opponent Rank

5.8 : Cole Grossman
8.9 : Chris Birchall
9.6 : Tony Tchani
10.0 : Kevan George
10.8 : Danny O'Rourke
11.2 : Milovan Mirosevic
11.3 : Eric Gehrig

Some of these players jumped around between the backline and DM, but including them anyway. All have over 5 starts. Enough.

Grossman clearly leads all the 'executive summary' type metrics. Not only did he play the best teams, he did the best. And for the least amount of salary. That said, something not on the summary but one of the other things I track here is "True Value". It's the difference between what a player makes (listed salary in US $) and their contribution to their club's overall record in a given season based on my own rating model. Here is how that looks for 2012:

+$37,879.91 : Eric Gehrig
+$26,519.07 : Chris Birchall
+$19,250.67 : Kevan George
+$16,450.77 : Cole Grossman

-$11,517.74 : Danny O'Rourke
-$35,752.07 : Milovan Mirosevic
-$83,913.39 : Tony Tchani

(Positive is good, negative is bad. This is the estimated amount the player contributed to the 2012 regular MLS season above or below salary. Observation: The Crew tend to stick to playing players as they pay them, regardless of individual form. Example: highly paid get time, lower less - regardless of results. More on this some other time, perhaps. Good job Eric Gehrig.)

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PERSPECTIVE ON THE CREW'S "D-MID" SPOT

After toying around it as [the "Crew's"] secondary formation early in the year, Robert Warzycha and the rest of the band decided that 4-2-3-1 was their thing. How does that formation work? Let us take a look...

Hold six back, let three choose their own adventure and hang one up top.

Keep in mind that this only became the primary formation after Warzycha's "narrow diamond mid-field" 4-1-3-2 fell apart - due, in part, to the injuries mounting at the wing backs and holding defensive mid spots. Also, key injury of target man; Tommy Heinemann and the (arguable) misfire signing of Olman Vargas. It was expected that their pairing with speedy and capable poachers like Renteria and Arrieta would keep the the 4-1-3-2 alive.

The move to a 4-2-3-1 saw the Crew became dependent on two competent "Defensive Mid-Fielders" instead of just one. Look back at 2011 you see players like Danny O'Rourke, Dejan Rusmir, Kevin Burns, Emmanuel Ekpo, or Rich Balchan filling that single CDM spot and now in 2012 it's the folks I list above filling two.

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MAKING SENSE OF PLAYER MOVES

We live in a data rich society where winners and losers will be determined by who understand how to best use it and those that don't. It's not about looking at any small group of numbers like passing % or possession in a single regular season game... it's not even pitting 'data nerds' v. 'old school feel'.

In sports; it's about success. Results. Winning and Surviving within the parameters set before you. Data reliant or not. Results are dependent on extrapolating the important and reliable from what is just noise.

What is important?

For every Nate Silver prediction model - I'd like to think I can provide a Ben Olsen desire to win. Give me a Billy Beane's top 9 and I'll put them up against my seasoned scout's (middling away in North Texas or the Dominican) top 9. How about an Ivan Drago v. Rocky Balboa? It's an extreme, but America lives and breathes in extremes and is undeniably prosperous (historically... and wow, I open up a can of worms in my head).

I'll give into heart and leadership if it is truly earned. I honestly believe in the power of Great Leadership and the power of one to move the many. However, that is rare and it exists not here on the 2012 Columbus Crew. I wish it did, but it does not. Therefore, priority should be placed on results and the numbers behind them.

Always trust the numbers.

This time of year I find myself trying to look past the forced smiles and words from Brian Bliss, Cody Sharrett, Ashleigh Ignelzi and Mark McCullers. It is disappointing that in 2012 moves are still being made without data to support them and logic is cast aside for the dream of the next best thing that will most certainly never be.

Crew Final Player Rating

Below will be how I see things regarding final Crew player Ratings on the 2012 Season. If you look on the right of this blog you will see that I've spent some time with different player rating systems and their take on this past year's Crew team.

You'll notice the headers. "HBR" is my player rating. "Castrol" is the Castrol Index that MLS employs. "Guldan" is the rating SB Nation's Crew blog gave. "HBS Top H" is a score I track. It's a players Points Earned Per Game + Goal Difference. "Diff" is the difficulty of opponents each player faced when on the field.

First up will be the players finishing outside the top 18 in average rating.

Players "19-30" on any Major League Soccer team can be both the most important - and the most meaningless. Over the past few years the Columbus Crew have done a fairly good job in populating the senior team roster with good talent. You'll notice that this list includes young and/or injured players. Big call out: Julius James shouldn't be here and Francis is gone already.

I like the rest on this list. I think Schoenfeld and Heinemann are healthy target players to have in MLS. Arrieta came on strong, but players like him get eaten up by the physical nature of this league. Crew need goals from big men in the box. Gehrig, Anor, Finlay, and Speas are the kind of players you want working to get in the top 18.

Next up is the middle group.

This is the most critical group and here is where you'll probably see the most change. These guys saw significant minutes but received mixed reviews. Call Outs: Mirosevic was picked to be an important leader of the club and for the most part he was. Problem might be that (and this includes my own system) he showed better due to level of competition. He somehow managed to participate in a nearly full season yet rank towards the bottom in playing against top clubs.

Another call out is Olman Vargas. He played against quality competition but struggled. Same with Federico Higuain, in a way. Higuain really benefited from being in the right place at the right time this year but he did outstandingly during his short time. Next year should be interesting.

The polar opposite of Mirosevic is Cole Grossman. He received tepid reviews from me, Castrol and Guldan but over-performed against good competition when evaluating actual results. The reason I include performance against teams in the Top Half is because of Cole (being honest, but you can't ignore the results).

Of this list of players I think Nemanja Vukovic, Emilio Renteria and Tony Tchani are in danger of moving on. Renteria is worth hanging on to, but we'll see.

THE TOP 2012 PLAYERS

Up to the final list now, the top guys. One of the things I looked for in regards to player rating over different systems and metrics was variance. I liked low numbers and little difference between them. I saw that with Josh Williams and Chris Birchall. Andy Gruenebaum and Sebastian Miranda also fall in there.

Unfortunately, I think Dilly Duka is on the 'fringe' along with Carlos Mendes. Both these guys probably out performed what most of us saw but circumstance might bite them in the end. For the record, I think both Dilly Duka and Carlos Mendes are players I think the Crew should work to retain. At the very least, both are MLS ready and had great metrics. That alone should keep them on the Crew's list of 2013 roster players.

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There is a melancholic feeling to this post for me now that I'm done reviewing the Crew players. It by no means covers everything or every feeling I have about each player. November is generally a big month of change for a lot of Crew players. My thoughts and prayers are with those most affected by the changes.

Ten Miles of Snow

Both legs of the DC / NY MLS playoff series were disrupted by weather. After having the 1st leg venue changed from NY to DC because of Hurricane Sandy the 2nd leg had to be postponed due to a snow event.

There is a lot to say about this series but I want to take a closer look at what happened during the 2nd leg snow event.

The game was scheduled to be on Wednesday, Nov 7th and I was all ready to see DC take down NY. I was pretty excited for the game because reports a couple days before were for snow. Snow games, no matter the sport, make for good TV viewing. That in mind, I flipped on the TV and saw that there was indeed, pretty heavy snow falling and covering the field.

Players were in the tunnel ready to go and there were people out on the field trying to clear it off. As time passed NBC Sports started to wander about interviewing coaches and players. There was a certain amount of drama to the situation that I enjoyed. Color Analyst, Kyle Martino's interview with Ben Olsen (DCU coach) was great. Olsen was all for playing. Later Martino found his way over to Hans Backe (NY Coach) who was completely against playing. In the middle was a handful of nervous MLS Executives. Notably: Don Garber, League Commissioner and Mr. Nelson Rodríguez, Executive Vice President of Competition, Technical and Game Operations.

As the snow was falling both Mr. Garber and Mr. Rodriguez could be seen strolling around the facility talking with each other and sometimes talking with Martino on camera. Everyone seemed to want the game to go on but as each of them looked over their shoulder they could see that the field just wasn't getting cleared fast enough by the folks with snow shovels.

THE FOLKS WITH SNOW SHOVELS

Watching these people trying to clear a field 75 yds x 120 yds was painful. At first I figured it was a handful of facility employees and groundskeepers but as camera's closed in it was clear that most were young and in normal attire. Taking a closer look at some of the images shows some folks that look like they are from the front office even. Some with gloves and heavy coats and some without. Even though the forecast days before was calling for moderate snow, everyone working at Red Bull Arena just looked unprepared for it.

DISORGANIZED

Despite the incredible efforts of the people with shovels (some folks running) it was clear the snow clearing effort was not working. While I'm sure most would just say, "heavy snow, cancel the game." Or, "Just play on the snow." I was working out in my head how you clear the snow in 15 minutes and how you clear it in 10-15 minutes at half time.

THE SUPER SHOVEL

The field is 225 ft wide x 360 ft long. A close look at the shovels and I see that most were between the 18" or 24" wide variety that some poor soul had to probably run to Lowe's or Home Depot to get in a snow storm.

If one person with a 18" wide shovel were to push the snow by themselves they would have had to cross that field 240 times.

240 field crossings x 225 ft wide field is 10 and a 1/4 miles. An average to brisk walking pace is 135 steps per minute which ends up being about 15 minutes a mile. Most of the people pushing the show seemed to do it with little resistance upon each pass. However, for one person to shovel Red Bull Stadium's pitch with an 18" shovel it would have taken at least 2 and 1/2 to 3 hours.

Clearly, asking one person to shovel 10 miles of snow in 2.5 - 3 hours would take a beast of a woman or man. Even with the math, that seems like a daunting task for many, even with more people. Clearly it was also too tall and order for Nelson Rodríguez, Executive Vice President of Competition, Technical and Game Operations.

It was not too tall an order though...

In order to clear it in less than 10-15 minutes it would have taken around 16 people with 18" to 24" shovels walking a a brisk pace, shoulder to should (or as they say in manufacturing 'nothin' but asses and elbows'). 16 folks with 18" to 24" shovels have now made a 24 to 32 foot wide super shovel that has to cross the field 15 times to clear it.

Each human with a shovel at the end of 10-15 minutes would have walked about 2/3rd a mile. That works out to be about 15 field crossing at a total of 3375 ft.

From what I can tell from images of the night there appeared to be from 12-15 "shovel-ers". Enough to clear that field, if organized, in less than 30-40 minutes. Snow would have continued to fall during the match but player movement would have trampled enough of it down to keep things playable for 45 minutes. Once you got them on it would have been okay.

While they were playing, they could have put a call to Home Depots across the area for more shovels and offer fans $250 to help clear the pitch at half and maintain clear lines in the 2nd half.

I was thinking at first that they could have got a Ariens Professional Series 28 in. Two-Stage Electric Start Gas Snow Blower to clear the lines but it's cost is about 9-10 folks at $250. Plus, this is likely a one time event. Always go with people power over equipment anyway. Good old fashioned muscle and sweat is more reliable, cheaper, easier to program, safe and more plentiful than a machine and machine parts anyway. I also like working with people a lot better than machines. On top of that, can you imagine one of the folks in these pictures operating it? Might be some missing limbs by the end of the night.

Major League Soccer looked lost on a lot of levels on this night and Commissioner Don Garber's message to fans apologizing(?) for mistakes misses the mark. It wasn't the weather that caused the match to be postponed, it was arrogant incompetence. Something which we unfortunately see far to often with this league at all levels.

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WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN

I don't doubt I'm overestimating speed and ableness - especially when you figure people would get tired after a handful of passes - or you may have to start in the middle of the pitch and work out to sidelines... regardless, solvable problem and I'm a firm believer in the ability of anyone when given clear and achievable goals. Clearing the field was achievable. Afterwards, people might have been sore but in finishing the job they would have been slapping hi-fives and fist bumpin' all around. How great if NBC would have caught that!

Instead, when the word of the game cancellation was passed on to the folks who had been shoveling for over an hour I noticed a few toss their shovels to the ground in frustration. I'm sure a few viewers felt the same.

Playing this game could have been really fun. It should have been played. In better hands it would have been played.

Use the super shovel next time.

Opponent Difficulty, Crew Players

Ever wonder if certain players get the short end of the stick and tossed out against better teams? Me too.

Major League Soccer implemented an unbalanced schedule this year so it's imperative to take into consideration each Crew player's opponent when rating players.

% Appearances v. Top Half of Table : Total Apps

70% : Cole Grossman : 10
67% : Carlos Mendes : 12
65% : Dilly Duka : 20
64% : Justin Meram : 22
61% : Chris Birchall : 18
58% : Julius James : 12
57% : Kevan George : 7
56% : Jairo Arrieta : 18
55% : Olman Vargas : 11
54% : Tony Tchani : 22
53% : Josh Williams : 30

51% : Andy Gruenebaum : 33
50% : Eddie Gaven : 34
48% : Sebastian Miranda : 33

47% : Nemanja Vukovic : 15
46% : Chad Marshall : 24
44% : Emilio Rentería : 27
44% : Aaron Schoenfeld : 9
43% : Danny O'Rourke : 21
41% : Eric Gehrig : 12
40% : Ethan Finlay : 15
40% : Shaun Francis : 10
39% : Federico Higuain : 13
38% : Milovan Mirosevic : 26
36% : Bernardo Anor : 11
33% : Matt Lampson : 3
0% : Tom Heinemann : 1


If you are an avid fan of the Crew this list might surprise you. There are a number of very important callouts.

1. Meram and Duka were literally thrown to wolves. Large, angry wolves. 22 and 20 total appearances - 2/3rds against the top half.

2. Josh Williams (30 apps) didn't get the memo about apps against cupcakes. Look at the difference between him and Milovan Mirosevic (26 apps).

3. Mirosevic. Hard to argue with this. He missed key games against really good teams. Hard to figure his season. All indications from my perspective point towards good dude but that might hide a few nagging game day flaws.

4. No question Higuain came out of the gates in a great way, but very important to consider the opposition. Also consider the fact that opponents were halfway through a long season and he was just starting his.

5. Grossman. Considering how he was used, this season could have ended his career. Instead he finished with excellent metrics against excellent teams. It's not chance. Trust the numbers people. Close your eyes and trust the numbers.

6. Birchall, Tchani, Arrieta; Notable. Good.

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[EDITED ON FRIDAY NOV. 9TH, 11:00 AM. Originally Missed: final regular season game for players that participated in it. Last match was against a team in the bottom half. Both % vs. Top Half and Apps have been adjusted and updated]

Helltown Beer Crew Player Ratings

Over the past few weeks I've covered a number of different Crew (and league) player ratings from the 2012 season. For this post I will list out my own ratings. They will be posted on the right with the rest to compare.

QUICK NOTES ON MY RATING MODEL

Throughout the year I rate every player in Major League Soccer. My model is based on something I came up with early last year and it has served me well since. I like doing it and is becoming more reliable for me. However, sometime last summer it became fully self aware, took over my computer and now even controls how I think and even feel. I'm surprised it has even allowed me to write this much.

HELLTOWN BEER RATING : NAME : LEAGUE RANK

78 : Eddie Gaven : 9
69 : Andy Gruenebaum : 43
68 : Sebastian Miranda : 44
60 : Josh Williams : 74
56 : Milovan Mirosevic : 92
53 : Chad Marshall : 109
48 : Jairo Arrieta : 139
43 : Emilio Rentería : 168
40 : Chris Birchall : 188
40 : Danny O'Rourke : 191
37 : Tony Tchani : 208
35 : Federico Higuain : 226
32 : Nemanja Vukovic : 241
31 : Justin Meram : 251
30 : Dilly Duka : 257

28 : LEAGUE MEDIAN

27 : Carlos Mendes : 281
24 : Eric Gehrig : 297
22 : Julius James : 314
22 : Olman Vargas : 316
19 : Shaun Francis : 336
18 : Cole Grossman : 344
18 : Bernardo Anor : 346
16 : Ethan Finlay : 368
16 : Kevan George : 370
14 : Aaron Schoenfeld : 398
10 : Matt Lampson : 449
8 : Ben Speas : 474
7 : Tommy Heinemann : 495

If it looks funny that a 28 is league median, it's because 236 of the 532 players that saw minutes played less than 900. Bad MLS teams love to toss players out on the pitch instead of doing the homework beforehand. Half the league was bad this year. Thus, lots of players.

164 players didn't make it to 450 minutes.

My model takes 16 league stats (that I prefer) - applies value through efficiencies, adds a dash of weight, glances at the league table and conjures up a point total.

I don't take into account things like potential, or perceived talent. It also ignores fan favorites and the dreams of the hopeful - yet, lost.

What is does is tell me who is doing well in MLS and contributing to the team in relationship to the rest of the league, based on actual results. I like actual results, as should you.

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I'm building up to a big fat final player grade based on Crew player rating from across the internets.

"The Castrol Index" Columbus Crew

The "Castrol Index" is another Major League Soccer player measurement system. Of the two previous I've mentioned so far it is of the more complex variety. Here is how the creators of the system sum it up:

The Castrol Index tracks every move on the field and assesses whether it has a positive or negative impact on a team’s ability to score or concede a goal.

Seems simple enough, but it is not. Read more about it HERE.

Below is how Castrol ranks the Crew players that saw time this year. On the Left is where the player ranked in the league. On the Right is the Castrol "score".

LEAGUE RANK : CASTROL SCORE (PTS)
28 : Andy Gruenebaum : 636
32 : Jairo Arrieta : 607
39 : Chad Marshall : 584
75 : Eddie Gaven : 525
121 : Milovan Mirosevic : 483
135 : Josh Williams : 471
177 : Chris Birchall : 434
194 : Danny O'Rourke : 414
204 : Emilio Rentería : 406
210 : Federico Higuain : 396
213 : Sebastian Miranda : 392

235 : LEAGUE MEDIAN RANK

238 : Tony Tchani : 349
255 : Justin Meram : 310
261 : Nemanja Vukovic : 302
273 : Olman Vargas : 271
275 : Dilly Duka : 269
303 : Eric Gehrig : 211
306 : Carlos Mendes : 205
320 : Julius James : 179
331 : Bernardo Anor : 142
341 : Cole Grossman : 126
343 : Kevan George : 121
361 : Ethan Finlay : 85
392 : Aaron Schoenfeld : 53
416 : Matt Lampson : 29
424 : Ben Speas : 20
458 : Tommy Heinemann : 0

I spent some time with this rating model last year and determined it to be not sustainable but at the same time something worth while to pay attention to.

Going back through my notes I also notice that they have changed they way they score. It use to be a "7.65" type score, which I assumed was on a 10 pt scale. Now it is a whole number.

For the purposes of this blog I am going to turn the "league rank" on the left of the players name into a percentage.

EXAMPLE, ANDY GRUENEBAUM
Andy finished ranked 28th in the league. 470 total players were tracked. That puts Andy in the top 10%. Or, better than 94% of the league (players ranked 29-470).

I'm going to use the 94% for consistency on this blog - I like my player scores on a 100 pt scale if the entire league is involved.

94% : Andy Gruenebaum
93% : Jairo Arrieta
92% : Chad Marshall
84% : Eddie Gaven
74% : Milovan Mirosevic
71% : Josh Williams
62% : Chris Birchall
59% : Danny O'Rourke
57% : Emilio Rentería
55% : Federico Higuain
55% : Sebastian Miranda

49% : Tony Tchani
46% : Justin Meram
44% : Nemanja Vukovic
42% : Olman Vargas
41% : Dilly Duka
36% : Eric Gehrig
35% : Carlos Mendes
32% : Julius James
30% : Bernardo Anor
27% : Cole Grossman
27% : Kevan George
23% : Ethan Finlay
17% : Aaron Schoenfeld
11% : Matt Lampson
10% : Ben Speas
3% : Tommy Heinemann

Not any different order than the first list at the top of this blog, just a more usable number than... whatever that number is that Castrol uses. This number makes more sense to me. Greater than 50%? in the top half. Less than 33%? Bottom third.

Looking up and down the list, I think it works. I know that they (Castrol Index people) are still trying to come to terms with how much total player minutes steers the player score.

Of note above; Sebastian Miranda, who tallied loads of minutes, down the list. O'Rourke didn't play in over half the games but finish close to the top third of the league.

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If it looks like I'm building a model to ultimately give out one gigantic player grade, it's because I am. Right before your eyes! Watch! As I unlink these rings! Still a few more player ratings to post up yet (including my own). To the right of this blog will be all the ratings so you too can be informed about things. Especially going into the "exit interview" part of the MLS season.

The Guldan Rating, SB Nation

Patrick Guldan is the Managing Editor of SB Nation's "Columbus Crew community". After most Crew matches he posts a Notes and Grades summary of the previous game. In it he rates the Crew side of the match using the following system (in Mr. Guldan's words):

"Note on Grades: I have set 5 as an average performance. The player had both good and bad events on the field. Under 5 is a disappointing performance. Above 5 is a notable performance."

I've come to enjoy this feature over the past couple seasons as I like that he grounds player performance on average and works off that. A lot of player ratings out there (I see them most often with USMNT) use a 1-10 scale with no indication of average performance.

**I'm going to cut to the chase than explain lower down the post.**

What I did was take the number of times a player rated a 7 and above and divided that by total number of times rated.

RATING : NAME : TIMES RATED

55.6% : Federico Higuain : 9
46.2% : Jairo Arrieta : 13
35.3% : Danny O'Rourke : 17
33.3% : Andy Gruenebaum : 27
33.3% : Matt Lampson : 3
32.1% : Eddie Gaven : 28
30.0% : Milovan Mirosevic : 20
21.7% : Josh Williams : 23
21.4% : Dilly Duka : 14
20.0% : Kevan George : 5

17.9% : TEAM

16.7% : Chad Marshall : 18
16.7% : Chris Birchall : 12
15.4% : Sebastian Miranda : 26
12.5% : Cole Grossman : 8
11.1% : Justin Meram : 18
10.0% : Olman Vargas : 10
10.0% : Carlos Mendes : 10
9.1% : Emilio Rentería : 22
9.1% : Eric Gehrig : 11
9.1% : Nemanja Vukovic : 11
7.1% : Coaching : 28
5.6% : Tony Tchani : 18

0.0% : Bernardo Anor : 10
0.0% : Shaun Francis : 7
0.0% : Ethan Finlay : 11
0.0% : Kirk Urso : 5
0.0% : Aaron Schoenfeld : 8
0.0% : Julius James : 9
0.0% : Ben Speas : 1

WHY DID I DO IT THIS WAY

Another thing I like about Guldan's system is that in the description it doesn't indicate if "10" is even the highest number or even if 1 is the lowest. Up until recently I'd never seen even an "8" given out by Guldan (I talked about that earlier this year).

29 total Crew players were rated 402 times (on average, about 14x a player). Plenty of times to draw valuable information out. Here's how the score distribution looked. On the left is his rating (LOW is bad, like - a 2; High is good, 9): On the right is the number of times that Score was handed out.

2 : 2
3 : 18
4 : 50
5 : 99
6 : 161
7 : 64
8 : 5
9 : 3

No "1" or "10" this year. Again, Guldan's system pivots off a 5 as average rating. What this reminds me of is a Net Promoter Score (NPS). It's a system that simply asks the question "Would you recommend this product to a friend". In the Net Promoter system average scores are thrown out. Which is exactly what I did. The reason being is to eliminate the 'passive' ratings. In the retail / maufacturing world 'passive' customers can be seen as the enemy. Why? I doesn't give you any actionable items. Without actionable tasks you waste a lot of time on nada.

If you have a customer nailing your ass to the wall... you want to focus on that. NOT the folks in the middle, NPS treats that as noise. Same goes for the higher ratings. Growing your company, you want to figure out what works. NPS can be valuable in this way.

What I did to derive a usable number from Guldan's rating system is take the total number of times a player scores a 7 and above and divide that by the total number of times the player was rated. I feel that shows best what Patrick Guldan views as quality.

EXAMPLE: DILLY DUKA
Duka was rated a total of 14 times by Patrick Guldan. He (Duka) got rated 4 twice, a 5 four times, a 6 five times and a 7 three times. It looks like this:

GULDAN SCORE : # OF TIMES RATED
4 : 2
5 : 4
6 : 5
7 : 3

Dilly didn't recieve any ratings others than those above. What I'm going to do is throw out the anything below 7... take the 3x at a "7" and divide it by total number of times rated, 14.

3 / 14 = 21.4% : Duka

Taking out the "detractors" pulls my number away from true NPS. I did this, in part, because Guldan's rating isn't on a 1-10 scale. Also, NPS has many critics, including me.

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Taking the "average" rating of players leaves almost all at around 5 or 6. Removing the middle ground gives me more to go off of. Had a brief Twitter conversation with the great Steve Sirk (@stevesirk) about how the Crew players with the most time naturally find the middle of the road (Team averages). A NPS type score is a simple way of discounting average and bringing important items into focus.

Of course Guldan's rating system isn't the only thing to go off of, nor is only using "NPS" if you are a retail company. Guldan's ratings are an "outsider but almost insider" type rating that should only be taken as such. Meaning, he has contact with team officials and players but isn't part of the payroll. There are hints of favoritism here and there but generally his scores are honest. I'll post this on the right side blog though so you, dear informed reader, can make your own conclusions about things.

If you want to mess with Patrick Guldan's player ratings you can find them HERE. Mr. Guldan didn't rate every week (that I could find) but I pulled as much as there was available on his SB Nation Crew blog. Statistically; it's enough to evaluate how he views the performance of the players this year.

I'm posting it as part of my ongoing evaluation of Crew players.

I appreciate Patrick Guldan's player ratings and look forward to them again next year.

2012 "Team of the Week" MLS Soccer

Throughout the the year I kept tabs on Major League Soccer's "Team of the Week" (TotW) feature on their website MLSsoccer.com. How it works is that their staff selects a team of 11 players each week that they feel played the best over the previous week. On top of those eleven, they also pick another 20 (or so) players and place them under the "Honorable Mention (HM)" category.

It's not perfect. MLS generally uses this feature to generate social interest and do little beyond listing out the players with a short blurb. No historical reference or player tracking. Once it's posted, it's posted and they move on.

Regardless. It can be a valuable feature. All totalled - about 10% of all players week to week get mentioned in the MLS TotW / HM feature.

There were 182 different players and coaches to make the site's TotW out of a possible 348 open starting XI slots + one coach (should have been 408 but MLS got weird with this feature between weeks 13 and 15). There were another 130 players that made the Honorable Mention category.

I tracked: 312 different players and coaches, 929 mentions.

Here are the players with over 9 mentions (TotW + HM = Mentions).

MENTIONS: NAME : (TotW only)

14 : Robbie Keane (4)
12 : Chris Wondolowski (8)
12 : Fredy Montero (3)
11 : Landon Donovan(5)
10 : Chris Pontius (5)
10 : Brad Davis (5)
9 : Marvin Chávez (5)
9 : Dan Kennedy (3)
9 : Andy Gruenebaum (3)

I don't think it's out of bounds to think that Total Mentions, as a subjective list like Team of the Week, can be used general barometer of quality. It passes the smell test as a measurement of quality. More value can be found in that it will also tell you who the league favors (bigger names get more attention). Smaller market teams might get overlooked in these lists but with a league of only 19 teams there you can only hide for so long.

The only player to separate themselves from the rest of the pack as far as TotW mentions was Chris Wondolowski with 8. Five players made the team 5 times (in the list above + Lee Nguyen).

Here is how it looks with the Crew ganked out. On the left are the number of times a player was mentioned. On the (right) is TotW mentions only.

9 : Andy Gruenebaum (3)
7 : Eddie Gaven (3)
7 : Jairo Arrieta (2)
5 : Chad Marshall (1)
5 : Josh Williams
4 : Federico Higuaín (3)
4 : Justin Meram
3 : Emilio Rentería (1)

2 : MLS LEAGUE MEDIAN

2 : Robert Warzycha*
2 : Shaun Francis
2 : Tony Tchani
1 : Aaron Schoenfeld
1 : Chris Birchall
1 : Danny O'Rourke
1 : Dilly Duka
1 : Milovan Mirosevic
1 : Sebastian Miranda

* One coach picked per week. More on that later on.

Here is number of TotW (best XI only) by club.

MENTIONS : TEAM

35 : San Jose Earthquakes*
25 : Real Salt Lake*
23 : Chicago Fire*
23 : Seattle Sounders*
22 : D.C. United*
22 : LA Galaxy*
20 : New York Red Bulls
19 : FC Dallas
18 : Houston Dynamo*
18 : New England Revolution
17 : Philadelphia Union
17 : Sporting Kansas City*
16 : Montreal Impact
15 : Columbus Crew
14 : Portland Timbers
13 : Vancouver Whitecaps*
12 : Colorado Rapids
10 : Chivas USA
9 : Toronto FC

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Alright. A few metrics here be.
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How many minutes it takes to get a MLS "mention" (includes TotW and HM). On the right I put total mentions again.

MINS PLAYED PER MENTION : NAME : MENTIONS

219 : Jairo Arrieta 7
240 : Justin Meram 4
251 : Federico Higuaín 4
254 : Shaun Francis 2
298 : Aaron Schoenfeld 1
324 : Andy Gruenebaum 9
427 : Eddie Gaven 7
429 : Chad Marshall 5
486 : Josh Williams 5
514 : Emilio Rentería 3

644 : LEAGUE MEDIAN

667 : Tony Tchani 2
1073 : Dilly Duka 1
1515 : Chris Birchall 1
1603 : Danny O'Rourke 1
2140 : Milovan Mirosevic 1
2881 : Sebastian Miranda 1

Crew players that didn't make TotW or HM this year, of the guys that saw minutes: Speas, Anor, Mendes, Grossman, Gehrig, Finlay, James, George, Lampson, Vukovic, Vargas. Fair or not; of that list, the only one to play over 1000 mins and not get a mention was Vukovic.

Here are some notable names from the rest of the league in terms of how many minutes it takes to earn a team of the week mention:

162 : Alan Gordon
180 : Robbie Keane
205 : Landon Donovan
212 : Marvin Chávez

All these guys had over 1000 minutes.

Not much to go on here with Managers. Ben Olsen was the only one to get mentioned 3 times. Warzycha got mentioned twice but so did 8 others.

One thing that interested me was how much a "Team of the Week" and "Honorable Mention" were worth. You can, if you figure that there are a possible 9044 eligible players generated by from 19 teams playing 34 matches with three available subs.

9044 total slots / 363 TotW picks = a 25 Share
9044 total slots / 581 HM = a 15 Share

Not perfect but close enough for a feature like TofW, so by that logic here are your top 6 MLS performers as picked by MLS themselves:

268 : Chris Wondolowski
254 : Robbie Keane
220 : Landon Donovan
213 : Fredy Montero
194 : Chris Pontius
194 : Brad Davis

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Some interesting things to be found in regards to Major League Soccer's "Team of the Week". If you have questions, you can contact me via twitter @HelltowBeer or email at: ljbaby654@gmail.com

If you are interested in looking over MLS Team of the Week and Honorable Mentions you can find my data HERE.

As with anything, there is an error rate. With this mine happens to be around +/-5%. Reason being; MLSsoccer.com doesn't post this data other than a "conversational" form. They also, because of international breaks and a strange unbalanced schedule, skipped or combined weeks. I had to manually pull this together. It's close enough.

Crew Player Evaluations, GD p90

The Columbus Crew found themselves on a dead even Zero Goal Difference (GD) for the year. Below are players that drove that number up or down for each 90 minutes on the pitch.

GD p90 : NAME : 90 MIN GMs

[GROUP I]
+0.90 : Cole Grossman : 5.6
+0.66 : Carlos Mendes : 10.5
+0.38 : Justin Meram : 10.7
+0.32 : Nemanja Vukovic : 12.4
+0.27 : Federico Higuain : 11.2
+0.23 : Emilio Rentería : 17.1
+0.17 : Dilly Duka : 11.9
+0.15 : Josh Williams : 27.0
+0.13 : Julius James : 7.9
+0.12 : Sebastian Miranda : 32.0
+0.11 : Danny O'Rourke : 17.8

This Group I includes the players the Crew should be locking up for next year. Notable here is Nemanja Vukovic and Emilio Renteria. Two players, based on how they were used, that are seen as part-time contributors by the club staff. This metric tells us that they contribute positively (both played enough time to make a statistically significant contribution).

The class of this group comes in the form of Josh Williams and Sebastian Miranda. Considering the amount of time the put in, both these guys should be hardwired into next year's plans.

Helltown Hero, Cole Grossman, is so out of control high it's crazy. I don't care that his Blue Devil bball teams beat up on my Campbell U. Fighting Camels on a regular basis... Grossman's club numbers are impressive... On top of that he contributed exactly as I would expect a Duke grad to; Intelligently and confidently - with a passing hint of smugness. He's my favorite type of player. One that knows how to win on the team level - also, cerebral and able to survive outside the sport.

[GROUP II]
+0.03 : Andy Gruenebaum : 32.4
+0.00 : Jairo Arrieta : 17.0
-0.03 : Eddie Gaven : 33.2
-0.04 : Milovan Mirosevic : 23.8
-0.06 : Chris Birchall : 16.8

Look at the games these guys racked up. These are the guys that drove the whole of the 2012 season. Consistent performers, but like your Crew toiling their craft at the middle of the table? Pick these guys each match.

[GROUP III]
-0.14 : Tony Tchani : 14.8
-0.17 : Chad Marshall : 23.8
-0.36 : Shaun Francis : 5.6
-0.37 : Bernardo Anor : 5.5
-0.44 : Eric Gehrig : 9.0
-0.54 : Olman Vargas : 7.4

Group III is the bad group. You don't want your name here if you have significant minutes. Especially if your name is Tony Tchani and Chad Marshall.

Below is going to be the guys that didn't see enough time to matter on an individual level. However, as a group, they matter. Just last week a friend of mine sent me an email detailing winning percentage of players in his pickup basketball league. I dug into it and found an all to familiar fact. Players that don't play much hurt your chances of winning. Meaning, The more players you have getting "spot" duty each year the worse off you will be. Since Robert Warzycha took over his teams seem to be hounded by players that pepper the line up.

[GROUP IV]
+1.41 : Ben Speas : 0.7
+0.00 : Kevan George : 4.7
+0.00 : Matt Lampson : 1.6
-0.30 : Aaron Schoenfeld : 3.3
-1.27 : Ethan Finlay : 4.7
-18.00 : Tommy Heinemann : 0.1

Ethan Finlay was dangerously close to topping that 5 game (450 minute) mark. I saw him play a lot this year and am convinced that he is a good soccer player but the way he was jammed into the lineup early on was a mistake. He is too small to play up top, yet he was put there (he actually suffered injury due to that). Finlay can be best used as a player in training behind Sebastian Miranda at Right Back.

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The numbers above are only one way to measure performance, though. With something like GD while on the pitch, look for players with over 10 games (900 minutes). They are the guys that drove results.