Forbes: ESPN, FOX offering MLS a Deal

Jabari Young reported earlier today that ESPN and FOX are offering MLS $10 million and $7 million dollars a year, respectively, for four years. It was stated in the piece that the number of games each year would remain relatively the same as the previous deal.

My estimate on the previous MLS deal with ESPN and FOX was for a total of around $50 million per season ($90m - $25 to US Soccer - $15m from Univision = $50m) so this is a significant (near) 70% drop. What this tells us is that in 2014 networks gave MLS eight years to grow into that $50m a year, but fell well sort of expectations.

For MLS to have fulfilled its promise to ESPN and FOX they would have had to have TV viewership numbers averaging around 450k on ESPN and 300k on FOX (+70% above current numbers).

WHY IS SOMEBODY LEAKING?

Probably to move things along. Obviously, MLS didn't say "YES" to the figures so the networks went public. Sometimes this is to embarrass one party or another, but I think in this case it is just to get MLS moving. It was reported not long ago that ESPN did not even bid on MLS, so I imagine they just want it done.

SPANISH LANGUAGE?

Jabari's piece mentions that Univision is still out there and I'm sure they are, but they were the first network MLS went to go negotiate with (likely) because they wanted a big Spanish Language partner for their new Leagues Cup. It didn't happen. I am a bit surprised nothing has been done there. It makes me wonder if something is in the oven for English Language rights / partners for Liga MX.

WHAT'S NEXT FOR MLS

MLS has a boatload of things to sort out because they are building their TV production from the ground up. A complaint from MLS fans in the past has been the production value that networks provide and the fact that the league isn't promoted there. Well, that changes next season. It'll be up to Apple to get the word out and make the action on the pitch look good because, without exclusivity, ESPN and FOX will not be helping much.

This offer from linear networks is something Apple and MLS know is a necessity as a move to streaming only makes the league invisible. Of course streaming in some form is the future of TV, but for the foreseeable future, linear networks are the lifeblood of live events - that includes news, remember CNN+? I believe sports might have a similar fate if they are not careful in doing this.

FINAL THOUGHT

MLS sidestepped a bunch of problems by jumping to a streaming network as a primary broadcast partner, but it also created a whole bunch of new challenges because the trail they are on leads to the wild west of steaming-only sports of which there really hasn't ever been a breakout star.

I consider this to be a reboot of sorts for MLS's television product. It's a risk for the league and one I don't think they really wanted to make, but it's where they are. They are learning that you can't just say you are the "next big thing..." you have to prove it.

To Copa, or To Cup? That is the Question

(Making a Cup/Copa? From the movie Ghost)
(Is Patrick Swayze the United States, or is Demi Moore?)

Recently, Liga MX president, Decio De Maria unveiled the possibility of a Cup/Copa competition between Major League Soccer clubs and their counterparts in the Liga MX. Read Mark Baber's article Inside World Football.

The view from both sides of the border seems similar, capitalize on the marketability of high profile games between the clubs of two substantial leagues which grow closer and closer to being competitive equals each year. Funny thing though, now, unlike in the past, games between teams such as Pachuca and the Columbus Crew would seem to benefit the Mexican sides more than the U.S. and Canadian based sides. This seems counter-intuitive; but, hear me out.

The U.S. market for all things professional soccer: TV, advertising, sponsorship, ticket sales, merchandising, etc. is growing rapidly. Read David Keyes Soccer is no longer America's sport of the future. And this Nielson article Beautiful Game: Soccer in the U.S. Could be a Win for Advertisers and Programmers Alike

This growth includes the Mexican/Hispanic demographic in the United States. Traditionally, the Mexican American population has watched more Liga MX soccer than MLS, the various South American Leagues, the EPL or European League soccer. This still holds true, in a very overwhelming way. Read Seth Vertelney on GOAL Liga MX is television ratings king in the United States. But with the money and quality of play increasing in Major League Soccer, and more and more young Hispanic and Mexican players finding their way into MLS Academies, read Primetime Sports and Entertainment's How US Hispanic Participation Will Shape American Soccer, it is only a matter of time before the Hispanic-American demographic begins shifting a greater portion of its soccer devotion over to clubs in the United States. Importantly, this shift will mean major $$$ to the United States domestic league.

If I were Decio De Maria, president of Liga MX, I would be doing exactly what he is attempting. I would partner, in any way possible, with the fastest growing soccer league in this hemisphere, and possibly the world, Major League Soccer.

I am not ignoring the real potential for MLS to exploit such a relationship. But, the game is changing. Don Garber needs to carefully measure moves like throwing his teams into multination competitions, this includes the current Concacaf Champions League. Major League Soccer now has a lot to offer wherever it travels.

Major League Soccer is competing with Liga MX for, not only the Hispanic/Mexican soccer fan in the United States, Major League Soccer is competing to be THE professional soccer league in the Americas, and will be increasingly as each new season approaches. Perhaps the most important steps MLS will take in the next few years will be...

1. Improving the on field quality of each MLS club until they are on par with Liga Mx sides.

2. Embracing the Hispanic players and communities throughout the United States as they assimilate into the U.S. culture (whatever that is? ; )

Bottom line, MLS will grow going forward. The question is, how much? Liga MX could be losing viewership going forward. To whom are partnerships like a Liga/MLS Cup/Copa more valuable? Who has more to gain/lose?