Saturday, June 11, 2016

Non-Penalty G + A Leaders (MLS)


MLS is in the middle getting out of the way of one summer tournament or another at the moment, but it gives us some time to take a step back and take a look at a few performance metrics.

First up is non-penalty goals + assist leaders, thus far (with some extended info!) with a minimum of 900 minutes. "NPG+A" is a simple measurement that's a little worn, but an important one to monitor, non-the-less.

NPG+A p90NAMETEAMNPGAMINSWAGEBirthplaceAge
1.00Joao PlataRSL46902$175,000Guayaquil, Ecuador24
0.95Sacha KljestanNYR2101142$687,500Huntington Beach, California30
0.90Sebastian GiovincoTFC651101$7,115,556Turin, Italy29
0.85Ignacio PiattiMTL831169$425,000General Baldissera, Argentina31
0.79Kevin MolinoNYCFC53909$121,400Carenage, Trinidad & Tobago25
0.79Fanendo AdiPDX721027$712,500Lagos, Nigeria25
0.78Mike MageeLAG53925$250,000Long Grove, Illinois31
0.78Chris PontiusPHI541042$411,000Yorba Linda, California29
0.78Gyasi ZardesLAG44929$472,500Hawthorne, California24
0.77Bradley Wright-PhillipsNYR821164$710,000Lewisham, England31
0.77Dominic OduroMTL451058$235,000Pramso, Ghana30
0.65Thomas McNamaraNYCFC34969$85,000West Nyack, New York25
0.60Sébastien Le TouxPHI24906$310,228Rennes, France32
0.60Mike GrellaNYR431058$155,000Glen Cove, New York29

This year we are seeing, at least in the early going, goals coming from more players. Noticeably less top heavy this year vs. previous. General observation, but we usually see more players over the magical Helltown number of 0.60 (an attacking player of which I deem "Good").

Another observation is that there aren't any grossly underpaid players popping up at the top. Thomas McNamara is performing well in the metric and only at $85k, but we usually see a handful of guys up here in the under $100k club.

A couple more call-outs:

- Giovinco is have one of those MLS seasons were you feel he knows he's proved what he can do and on his way out.

- Good to see Chris Pontius on this list. Hopeful that he's finally fully returned from injury.

- NY Red Bull players benefitting from the freakshow vs. NYCFC.

- Last year Kei Kamara and Ethan Finlay were bouncing around the top 10 all year. No Crew SC players so far this year. Ola Kamara (4 goals in 410 mins) still has a few minutes to go before he pops up over 900.

All for now. There's still a little over half the season to play.

Thursday, June 9, 2016

Sunday, June 5, 2016

Dropping in on MLS Free Agency

One of the bigger notes from last year's new MLS Collective Bargaining Agreement was that MLS would try it's hand at "free agency" for the first time. It was seen as a sort of victory for the players, but one they knew they had to improve.

Looking at it now, it's a win for the league. Only 27 players met the strict qualifiers that allowed them to become a free agent last year. For a refresher, here they are:

- Out of contract
- Are at least 28 years old
- Have a minimum of eight years of service in MLS

Don't you like how they call it "years of service?" Anyhow, let's dig into how things have played out.

1. Twenty-Seven Players. That means only about 5% of all MLS players qualified for free agency under these rules. Professional sports in the US is heavy handed in this arena, but 27 out of 550-600 is setting a new standard. Last year the NBA, for example, had 196 Free Agents out of 446 total players under contract and the NFL had 525 out of about 1600 on rosters last year.

2. The 27 qualifying players made a total of about $4.5 million in 2015. After going through free agency MLS wiped $1.8 million off their books, down to $2.7 in 2016.

3. Just one player ended up going to another team for a higher salary. Justin Mapp. He went from Montreal at $199k to Sporting KC for $239k. The only other player to go up stayed with their own team (Ricardo Clark, Houston, +$19k).

4. Nine of the 27 are no longer playing professionally and two went to the NASL.

5. The still active players whose salaries tumbled the most are Mike Magee (-$218k), Jeff Larentowicz (-$96k) and Corey Ashe (-$85k).

6. Table:

NAMEOLD TEAM2015 SALARYNEW TEAM2016 SALARYYOY Diff% Pos 2016 Mins
Justin MappMontreal Impact$199,225Sporting KC$239,070$39,8452%
Ricardo ClarkHouston Dynamo$337,750Houston Dynamo$356,700$18,95097%
Chad BarrettSeattle Sounders$100,000San Jose$95,500-$4,50021%
Michael HarringtonColorado Rapids$130,000Chicago$125,000-$5,00057%
Alan GordonLA Galaxy$175,000LA Galaxy$170,000-$5,0006%
Paulo NagamuraSporting Kansas City$230,000Sporting Kansas City$225,000-$5,00013%
Nathan SturgisHouston Dynamo$75,375Seattle$62,508-$12,867
Drew MoorColorado Rapids$270,500Toronto FC$250,000-$20,50092%
Bobby BurlingColorado Rapids$140,000Colorado Rapids$116,000-$24,00069%
Kyle ReynishNew York Red Bulls$90,317New York Red Bulls$62,500-$27,817
Brian CarrollPhiladelphia Union$150,000Philadelphia Union$120,000-$30,00080%
Ned GrabavoyNew York City FC$215,000Portland$150,000-$65,00021%
Nick LaBroccaColorado Rapids$180,000Chicago$110,000-$70,00021%
Conor CaseyPhiladelphia Union$180,000Columbus$105,000-$75,0001%
Corey AsheOrlando City SC$189,750Columbus$105,500-$84,25027%
Jeff LarentowiczChicago Fire$271,000Los Angeles$175,000-$96,00018%
Mike MageeChicago Fire$467,500Los Angeles$250,000-$217,50079%
Kenny CooperMontreal Impact$285,625Unattached$ -
Jon BuschChicago Fire$90,000Indy Eleven$ -
Andrew WeberPortland Timbers$60,000?$ -
Stephen KeelFC Dallas$60,000Unattached$ -
Khari StephensonSan Jose Earthquakes$71,646Unattached$ -
Ty HardenChicago Fire$75,078Unattached$ -
Eric AvilaOrlando City SC$77,000Tampa Bay Rowdies$ -
James RileyColorado Rapids$83,750Unattached$ -
Edson BuddleLA Galaxy$106,250Unattached$ -
Troy PerkinsSeattle Sounders$136,663Coach (Sounders Academy)$ -

The impression we got after the latest CBA was finished was that this was merely a first step and that the union gave up a bit to obtain it. While it's hard to draw any major conclusions after year one, you can say that this doesn't appear to be any better or worse than players falling to one re-entry draft or another.

For this to work in a meaningful way for players within the current structure of MLS (and outside of blowing up the Player's Union) is to reduce the "years of service" gateway. Your talking about a small group, even if MLS was the only soccer league on the planet, let alone in the US. It puts most players well past their career peak earning time.

There are a good couple stories to tell in Drew Moor in Toronto and Mike Magee back in LA. Maybe they will be back up and in demand next year (or when their deal is up). Both are over 31 but can still be effective in MLS. Hell, after eight years, they practically are MLS.

We'll see where this goes next year.

Saturday, June 4, 2016

"Lost Opportunity"

2016 Crew Season
Gregg Berhalter appropriately called it a "lost opportunity" after Philly took care of an off balance Crew SC last Wednesday, June 1st. He went on to talk about proving they could play with anyone if they could knock of East-leading Union.

A big part (biggest) part of Columbus not earning 3 points in last night's game was that it would have allowed them to get off the mat heading into the Copa America break.

Had they won they would have moved to mid-table for the back half of the season. The sweet spot. At least in MLS. It's the place that ensures that you can absorb a couple losses in a row or a bad run in five. When you are at the bottom, as Crew SC currently are, you cannot. A bad couple weeks or month will effectively end your season.

That's the lost opportunity that I see.

MLS claims that part of the charm of the league is that you can zoom up and down the table all year long. It's a myth. The combined "True Table" (a normalized Points per Game) debunks that. The zooming up and down is largely due to breaking the league up into two tables of 10 and keeping Games Played by each team all over the place.

This simple slight of hand has become an MLS staple for years. Don't let it fool you. It doesn't fool most coaches and it certainly doesn't fool Gregg Berhalter and Anthony Precourt.

League critics will point to how meaningless the MLS table actually is. I've talked about it many times here on this site, It's mostly true. There's no real battle a the very top and teams aren't hanging on every point earned, hell, every moment in every game like more structured leagues.

However, there is a fight to be fought in getting to the middle. Bouncing around the bottom, at this point in the season, as Columbus is, is a very bad place in MLS. Nobody made it out last year. It's a season killer. Career killer. And attendance suck going into the hay making time in MLS (the summer part of the season till NFL starts).

Crew SC have a few weeks to sort it out. The next five will go a long way as far as shaping the rest of the season.

This franchise has been here before, and recently. Just under different management. Back in 2012 the team was down in the bottom four or five during the first half. It took a Federico Higuain and a blazing hot Jairo Arrieta to even get them back into the hunt by season end. They missed out.

I don't think it will take a couple A+ signings for 2016 Columbus to get back into this. That was a once a decade thing for a team on a budget. It'll take concentration, practice and effort to form into it's own identity (especially without Gaston Sauro). This Columbus can't play like a Kei Kamara led one. Nor can it play like the pretty one we saw in 2014.

It'll have to be its own thing. The players on the team are more than serviceable to make mid-table MLS. The solution is out there. Can they find it?