1st Leg: Crew vs Revolution--Where Does the Fault "Lie?"

When an earthquake sends you scurrying in no particular direction (seriously, where are you supposed to go during an earthquake?), anxiety levels reach unprecedented heights. After the shaking is over, the sweaty, scared and slightly off-kilter survivors can be seen pointing at jagged cracks in the soil and blacktop. They are looking for a reason. Something is at fault. Sorry, pun built-in.

The immediacy of a professional soccer match, like the one which took place in Crew Stadium Saturday afternoon (Columbus Crew 2-4 losers to the New England Revolution), is a little like an earthquake. Unlike a real-life-threatening earthquake, the hometown fans don't run aimlessly about. They watch closely as the small cracks turn into gaping holes; but, often, they still only see the jagged cracks on the surface.

The first reason voiced by the gathered throng for the devastating performance is "That player sucked!" The second reason is often "The coach messed up!" While some bit of blame can be laid at the feet of the Columbus Crew players and the coach, I'm going to argue that the real fault lies within an aspect of the Crew's new-found success.

The 2014 Black and Gold have worked diligently to be successful. Not just successful, entertaining.

With Gregg Berhalter's Crew, success has sprung, some would say oddly, from playing open, risk-taking soccer all over the field. Outside backs fly up the wings for ninety plus minutes, leaving the central backs responsible for large amounts of space and more than the typical number of counter attacks. The Crew also line-up with what amounts to three forwards and an attacking central mid. Add to the above facts the purposeful playing of the ball on the ground between the goalie, the central backs and holding midfielders, and the Columbus Crew, under Gregg Berhalter, have consciously made the decision to be unlike any other team in Major League Soccer.

The 2014 Columbus Crew are not a counterattack team. They are not a two forward, four midfielders kind of team. The 2014 Crew are a team, and individual players, constantly pressuring and under pressure. They are also damn fun to watch. So, what went wrong Saturday, November 1, 2014?

Simply put, there were way too many passes which came-up short of their mark. There were way too many runs off the ball which asked too much of the player with the ball. There was an urgency to score, which way too often did not match the situation in which the player found himself. These simple things were the "fault." The same "fault" could be seen in the last regular season game.

If the Crew are to have a chance of defeating the New England Revolution in this home and away, aggregate goal series, they must rediscover the foundation of what makes their style successful. The foundation of the way the Columbus Crew play under Greg Berhalter is consistent brilliance in the bedrocks of soccer: completed passes, quality first touch, and players reading each other and the game.

If Greg Berhalter and the Crew players are going to continue playing unlike any other Major League Soccer team (Please don't stop, it's damn fun to watch, and the return in the future is unlimited), they must re-commit themselves to the bedrocks of soccer.

There will be time and more money, in the off-season to add to the roster. Now is not the time to panic. Now is the time for Gregg Berhalter to tell his players they have forgotten the part of the equation that goes along with freedom and creative license...accountability for the repetitious and mind-numbing ordinarily brilliant completed pass and simply perfect first touch.

Podcast: Red Cards in Helltown - Episode XVIII

Host Rick Gethin along with analyst Larry Johnson sit down for an hour to talk these things soccer (domestic mostly). It's an hour straight. No stopping. No breaks. We like it that way. We also like sparkling water.

00:00 - HEADLINES - La Calaca - Amparo Ochoa
• MLS Playoffs! Look at Knockout round results, Conference Semis
• Jurgen Klinsmann, domestic players falling off
• Besler, Zusi concerning performances post World Cup
• Observations based on experience, Professionalism and Dedication
• Robbie Keane MVP
• Garber stomping foot, setting the tone for league
• MLS Players Union vs MLS

22:22 - COLUMBUS CREW, NEWS, NOTES
• God-awful mess of game
• "sports team falls flat," empty stadium
• New England prepared
• Lineup questions, backline
• Price to pay for selling Giancarlo Gonzalez
• Pogatetz not playing, Tyson Wahl
• Attendance low... very low

41:10 - LEAGUE LOOK
• MLS scheduling, travel
• Simplest format probably best
• Comparing to other US leagues
• Sparse attendance across league in playoffs
• Catering to the junkie

56:50 - QUICK HIT, WRAP UP
• DeAndre Yedlin comments on Supporters' Shield
• Nature of sport doesn't lend self to 'one-offs'

Playoffs, MLS Cup (pretty much)

It's been nearly a half decade since Crew fans have seen a postseason match. Even longer since they've tasted home field joy (no need to revisit the 2010 match). Crew host the New England Revs in the Conference Semifinals tomorrow (or today, November 1, 2014). I guess it gets pretty confusing trying to explain it. Either way. Show good at home and hold serve away to New England next weekend. That's the goal, pretty much.

Aggregate Score Playoffs with Away Goal Rule in Play

Home and away series begins tomorrow afternoon. It’s good to have a home. The Columbus Crew have the original soccer-only home in Major League Soccer. It’s good to have a home.

Home is where we feel comfortable, most of the time. At least, that’s the way it’s supposed to feel.

For sports teams, leaning the theoretical recliner back, cracking open a beverage and munching on some jalapeno and habanero infused chili dip is a recipe for disaster.

Successful teams, a grouping which the Black and Gold can rightfully place themselves within, enjoy a good night’s sleep, a morning meal with family or teammates and then they stroll purposefully into a familiar stadium.

Boots are clean. Uniforms hang in lockers. Routines are followed. Superstitions abided by.

Pregame walk-through precedes another visit to the locker room. The Sporting Director lays out the starting line-up and says a few words of encouragement. Back onto the pristine field for warm-up.

One last time into the friendly confines of the locker room. A moment of silence to remember why we play the game. For love and passion. For family and friends. And, finally, most importantly, to have a chance to play again. A chance to play the game we love once more.

There is no time for recliners. There is no time for comfort food. There is no time for comfort.

When the Black and Gold step onto the field and the whistle blows, home is where we prove we love the game more than our opponents. We want to play again. We always want to play again. The great, the passionate know…it’s about the game.

Whether alone with the ball, or together with just one other like-minded soul, the game is always on. In the street, in the yard, in the warehouse or the glorious stadium, the game, for the truly passionate is always on.

Play to win for one reason and one reason only…to play again. Comfort can eat caviar and watch for all I care. Comfort will not play again.

Subjective vs. Objective: Quality of Major League Soccer Teams Past, Present and Future

After reading Larry Johnson's latest post:

3 of 10 Least Expensive MLS Goal Scorers are Crew Players, A Discussion on Wages

Whimsical opinions of Major League Soccer's quality of play began merrily skipping upon fluffy-white clouds steadily circling my bulbous skull. To make matters worse, the whimsical opinions were joining hands. They were beginning to grin, a monstrous grin of pious surety. I was scared and happy all at the same time. 

That monstrous grin of pious surety was subjective opinion becoming objective reality in record time. As I said, I was very happy. My opinions, in regards to MLS Quality of play, were magically being validated as fact, apparently to stoke my fragile ego. I was also, as noted above, terrified at my bottomless need for feeling clever, smart, right about everything and dammit, ruler of the Metaverse!

Sorry. Got lost there for a moment.

I forced the fluffy-white clouds to dissipate. The whimsical opinions fell screaming to earth's unforgiving surface and splattered into unrecognizable goo. The blog-reading world was once again safe. But, I'm still going to write about the quality of Major League Soccer, and there may be some clever goo left. Fair warning.

As mentioned in my post a couple days ago:

Secret Formula: Columbus Crew Soccer Club 2015

There is a very good chance that fans of Major League Soccer will be treated to an unprecedented leap forward in the league's level of play. The question is: How can we measure, objectively, any positive change in level of play?

Let's start with a little history. MLS has been around for almost twenty years. When the league got its start in the 90's, the youth soccer explosion in the United States was, arguably, only ten to fifteen years in the making. Certainly there were pockets of soccer madness throughout the country prior to 1980: St. Louis, parts of New York City, Areas of the West Coast, South Florida, Etc. But the boom, that point where participation numbers began doubling every three or four years, began in the early 80's.

Most of the top players in Major League Soccer were either from one of the previously mentioned areas or overseas. The level of play was somewhat scattershot. Young American players were not being pushed by hundreds of thousands of other young players like they are today. 

Without doubt, there were very good players in MLS. Marco Etcheverry at DC United. Brad Friedel at Columbus Crew. Tab Ramos at NY. But it was the difference between players like those mentioned and the rest of the players in the league which often made for somewhat disjointed games. 

Arguably, the improvement seen in Major League Soccer's level of play over the last seventeen years is almost exclusively down to the improvement of the American born player. The young American born player has been competing against more and more players of better and better quality with each passing year. If this is true, why should there be anything more than simple incremental improvement going forward?

Because...money! Major League Soccer is about to experience the effects of revenue unlike it has ever experienced in its history. This money, spent wisely, will fall to the players. The players is where it should go. 

Which brings us to MLS rosters. The thirty man roster of the past included at least 10 players who, on average, were never going to be consistent MLS contributors. Those ten players have been in the $26,000-$40,000 range. Of the middle ten players on an average MLS roster over the last 18 years, four or five would float in and out of on-field minutes. The other four or five played consistently week to week. The top ten players on the average MLS roster were, arguably, players who could play in any number of second tier leagues throughout the world. Of course the top two or three players on each team were often capable of playing in top leagues around the world, or already had played in such leagues.

In the last 3-5 years Major League Soccer has seen that incremental increase in the quality of the American born player become quite obvious. The objective proof is many faceted. A large number (and increasing) of Americans are signing with teams overseas as 14, 15, 16, and 17 year olds. More and more of the American born players currently in MLS are seriously looked at by squads in Europe. There are kids growing up today who would have been able to play in MLS fifteen years ago, but not today.

Today, meaning the 2015 season and beyond, money will keep many of the 14-17 year olds from signing overseas. More of the quality young American players already in MLS will choose to stay. Top those facts off with better quality foreign players choosing Major League Soccer over other leagues, and you have what clearly will be a leap forward in quality.

Some factors making all of this happen are often difficult quantify. How do you quantify the improvement of youth players due to shear number of kids playing? You kind of just know it's happening. Other factors are easy to quantify. Money is money. Soccer players around the world are looking for the best payday during their short-lived careers. 

While there may be fewer "careers" as the roster limits get reduced, clearly, the quality of the player occupying those roster spots is increasing. There may still be 4-5 players on each MLS roster who rarely see first team minutes, but those four or five are going to be better than the bottom ten of the past. Players 16-20 on MLS rosters are going to have choices. Pay them the money they want to stay in that role, or they will look to Europe or Mexico for more playing time and better pay. Players 6-15 on rosters will be able to play almost anywhere and players 1-5 will be really good.

Major League Soccer, objectively (and on those fluffy-white clouds), is about to join the ranks of the top leagues in the world. MLS will not be EPL or Bundesliga level, yet, but it's getting there, and the speed with which it's getting there is increasing. Only those who have a need to hold onto the opinions of the past: "MLS sucks. I can't watch it. The players are horrible." will miss-out on the excitement of watching something evolve.

While they will eventually jump on board, they are missing the real beauty. Watching something grow. There's nothing like it.

3 of 10 Least Expensive MLS Goal Scorers are Crew Players, A Discussion on Wages

Cost per Non-Penalty Goal (NPG)
$5,833 - Joao Plata RSL
$5,986 - Ethan Finlay CLB
$6,167 - Dom Dwyer SKC
$6,929 - Tesho Akindele FCD
$7,500 - Quincy Amarikwa CHI
$7,625 - Fabian Castillo FCD
$8,138 - Bernardo Anor CLB
$9,375 - Luke Mulholland RSL
$10,000 - Andres Romero MTL
$11,478 - Justin Meram CLB

$68,000 - League Median cost per NPG

There are a few discussions to be had with this. One is on the value side of things having a player out perform your their contract is both a blessing and a curse for GM's all over the globe. You also have Major League Soccer's famous single entity league structure that controls all contracts - verses an open market like MLB (quasi-open) or most of the rest of the soccer playing world (wide open).

As my time paying close attention to MLS has grown longer, the more discontented I become when it comes to things like this. It was reported recently that Ethan Finlay signed a new deal for, presumably, more money but haven't heard much from the rest of this group. Goal scoring is obviously not the only way to measure a players worth. Benardo Anor has been on my lists of underpaid players a couple times but still only makes $48k in yearly wage. Now, him showing up here, MLS will likely take him to the next pay tier / grade (probably in the 60-90 range).

Since MLS controls all the contracts the system isn't too different than something you have at your job. Do well and you get a bump the same as any other player in your position, as recommended by your boss.. uh, coach. I saw this recently with Justin Morrow had a great year in San Jose. He went from a low base starting wage to a little over $100k and saw it again with Josh Williams going from low to $125k last year. Incremental increases are a way to control cost. It works in the business place but in the world of sports (where you only have earning power for a short time) it kinda hoses the player.

Looking up and down the list of player wages certain patterns become clear. It's a pretty simple list, here's how I have it off the top of my head:

1. "Name Guys" - These days USMNT players because that team is hot, hot, hot! with millennials, but also foreign in English speaking or Anglo friendly leagues (Michael Bradley, Clint Dempsey, Robbie Keane, Marco Di Vaio, Jermain Defoe)

1a. "Outstanding DP" - Usually foreign and a club legend where he came from, just not known here and are probably the better players in the league, some fitting MLS 'style' others not (Andreas Escobar, Federico Higuain, Diego Valeri)

2. "Good MLS Player Guy" - Big group. This is were guys that have played well for years (Graham Zusi, Chad Marshall, Kenny Miller, Mike Magee, Brad Evans, Steven Lenhart).

3. "Expected MLS Starter" - This is where you fall if you have been identified as able to compete at MLS level. Incidentally, they are the one's that hit the cap number most as far as volume of dudes. There are hits and misses in here (Bobby Convey, Andrew Driver, Agustin Viana, Josh Williams).

3a. "In the 18" - Better than college draft players or down roster guys, durable, athletic. Or maybe that free agent foreign player that as technical ability. (Baggio Husidic, Peguy Luyindula, Chad Barrett, Daniel Paladini, Logan Pause)

4. "The 20 to 30" - The rest fall into the 20-30 slots on a thirty man roster. You could call this purgatory, really. Mostly college drafts for USL pro level guys that MLS pick up and see if they fit the system or league. These guys are expected to be the filler. It's a tough spot to be and makes up a huge % of players in the league (Rich Balchan, Adam Jahn, Grand Ward, Aaron Kovar, Ross Friedman).

I guess, going through this mini exercise now, I see why I do pull down lists of guys over performing. The guys in that 20-30 purgatory / tumbler. It's always great to see a player make it out of that group. On the Crew we've seen Josh Williams do it and it sounds like Ethan Finlay will too. But this is MLS, so in order to get that next incremental raise they need to do even more for years (while being stuck on bad teams and no chance to shine in defunct reserve league) verses getting paid - like, now for your abilities and a chance to shine with good players.

Only so much money in the coffers, I guess. Just hope that one day the market determines how it is distributed to the the players that are earning it.

Final note: 5 / 10 guys at top of post are Hunt Sports Group pickups.

Secret Formula: Columbus Crew Soccer Club 2015

Too soon? Never!

The Columbus Crew have already kicked-off the 2015 season with Black and Gold Rebrand 1.0 (Hopefully there will not be a 1.1 or 2.0). We are now CCSC-Columbus Crew Soccer Club. The unveiling of the rebrand was only a couple of weeks ago, and another step in formulating CCSC 2015 and beyond was spotted this week. Large banners with the name of a potential stadium sponsor could be seen hanging from the stadium's south façade. Question of the day: What's a Mapfre?

If Crew owner Anthony Precourt is unabashedly redefining what Columbus Crew SC's branding/marketing will look like in 2015, then it only seems fair to take a look at what the Crew's roster will look like in 2015. So...here's the secret formula.

Current Roster (CR) minus Players Lost in December's Expansion Draft (PLED).

Subtract those players Gregg Berhalter and his staff will let go before the start of next season. Players Abandoned (PA).

50% chance that rumor about smaller MLS rosters in 2015 is true (25 roster slots).

100% chance that salary cap increases after collective bargaining in offseason (4.6 million total).

1000% chance that Columbus Crew add exactly three high priced players. (3)

1,000,000% chance that one or more of the above variables is FOS (FOS)

(CR-PLED)-PA=22    (22+3)/FOS=4.6 million


In order to simplify the incredibly complicated formula above, here's the list of players that will be protected in the expansion draft.

Frederico Higuain: Quality Argentine who can slot into new position when Crew add new players.
Ethan Finlay: Exciting young American player scoring goals and causing opposing teams to lose sleep.
Michael Parkhurst: Veteran defender. Solid building block in back.
Waylon Francis: Versatile outside left back.
Steve Clark: Goalkeeper. Fits Berhalters vision going forward.
Justin Meram: Goal scorer who, like Ethan Finlay, has another five or six years of quality left.
Bernardo Anor: Versatile, young, midfielder who can also play in back.
Tony Tchani: Center mid coming into his own. Another player with 5-6 good years left.
Hector Jimenez: Like Anor, can play multiple positions and has many years left.
Tyson Wahl: Proven center back. Becomes quality depth after roster additions in off-season.
Aaron Schoenfeld: Forward depth after off-season additions.


Second 11 kept after expansion draft (Some are homegrown players exempt from draft).

Will Trapp: Young Central Mid with still more to prove and improve.
Eric Gehrig: Good utility player.
Ben Speas: Central Mid depth and young.
Josh Williams: Hopes to return from injury and add depth at two or three positions.
Ben Swanson: Latest homegrown signing. Very young, but already training with first team.
Matt Walker: Young, unproven homegrown.
Matt Lampson: Back-up goalie with starting experience.
Adam Bedell: Towering forward who saw minutes early in 2014 season.
Kevan George: Sometime central back. Jury still out.
Chad Barson: Young, but with starters experience at marking back.
Kei Kamara: Veteran MLS'er. Could see 2015 minutes at two or three positions.

Three added, high quality, players who will command the lions share of the increase in salary cap space.
???: Forward who likes to combine with his teammates. 16+ goal scorer.
???: Center Mid capable of scoring 6-8 goals.
???: Young Center Back who meshes well with Parkhurst or Wahl.


Major League Soccer's probable switch to 25 man rosters is a good idea. This not only forces teams to start their own USL sides, but helps to put more emphasis on the academy teams. The Crew already have a good handle on promoting academy players. This should only improve.

I'm leaving Emanuel Pogatetz off my roster because he was a stop gap measure after the loss of Giancarlo Gonzalez. He is past his buy-by date and doesn't fit the Crew's personality. I am also leaving Romain Gall off the roster. Gall is a young player and the Crew have many young players in the academy system.

The bulk of the squad being proven players in their mid-twenties is rare in Major League Soccer. The veteran players around thirty, along with some promising young players and the 1000% chance that Anthony Precourt and Gregg Berhalter bring in three high quality players, drastically reduces the FOS factor. The FOS factor should fall from 1,000,000% to about 5000%.

2015's Columbus Crew Soccer Club should be even more exciting to watch than the 2014 version. If Major League Soccer gets the new salary cap right, and teams spend the new found money wisely, fans of MLS could very well see an unprecedented leap in the leagues quality of play.

Sadly, the WFK factor is racing neck and neck with the FOS factor. Only time will tell if the owners of Major League Soccer can stop the WFK/FOS race in its tracks. I believe they can, and will. I'm an optimist. How about you?   

Crew Finish 3rd in East

Oct 26, 2014; Columbus, OH, USA; Columbus Crew midfielder Romain Gall (25) reacts during second half action versus the Philadelphia Union at Crew Stadium. The Crew won the match 2-1. Source Image: Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

Predictions: Crew (h) v Union

Final game of the season for both teams. A win or draw today and the Crew could finish as high as 7th on the overall MLS table, making it the best finish since 2010 (5th).

2010: 5th Place finish on overall table
2011: 9th
2012: 10th
2013: 16th
2014: 7-9th

MATCH NOTES:
CLB: Might rest a couple starters in Higuain and Parkhurst
PHI: 12th place finish, disappointing season

MATCH PREDICTIONS:

% Correct picking Crew games (last 10) Outlet
55% (6) COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... COLUMBUS CREW (fav)*
52% (7) WIN DRAW WIN ... COLUMBUS CREW
48% (6) MLSSOCCER ... COLUMBUS CREW
45% (7) HOME TEAM ... COLUMBUS CREW
45% (3) WHOSCORED.COM ... DRAW
42% (6) BET365 ... COLUMBUS CREW
36% (3) GOAL.COM ... COLUMBUS CREW
33% (5) TABLE POSITION ... COLUMBUS CREW
--% (6) MASSIVE REPORT ... COLUMBUS CREW
--% (-) WV HOOLIGAN ... (no pick)

MATCH THOUGHTS:

*End of the road for this feature here at this site so a hardy Congratulations to Adam Jardy, beat writer for the Columbus Dispatch, for getting most of this year's Crew games correct (18 of 33). The two most important things any Crew fan should read every game week is Jardy's "Crew Notebook" and "How it might play out" in the game preview section of the paper. Which reminds me, subscribe to the newspaper. The physical one. When you read the paper you remove distractions. No links, no wormholes to fall into. Just a conversation between your thoughts and the writer. Try it (especially you, sports person). You might like it.