Lenhart and Heinemann, Aug 2013

Aug 10, 2013; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Vancouver Whitecaps forward Tom Heinemann (29) and San Jose Earthquakes forward Steven Lenhart (16) during the second half at BC Place Stadium. The Vancouver Whitecaps won 2-0. Mandatory Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports. Edited by me using Google+ and Gimp

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Steven Lenhart played for the Crew between the 2008 and 2010 seasons. Tommy Heinemann wore the black and gold in 2011 season and was injured for all of the 2012. Lenhart now plays for San Jose, Heinemann for Vancouver.

I ran across this picture while researching player performance data. For anyone that has followed this team over the past five years or so... what a random/great find. Wonder what they are talking about.

Both could, and should, still be here in Columbus. Man, I love this picture.

Oduro, Gruenebaum, Williams Returning?

Gregg Berhalter's press conference was the big Crew news of the day but there was something that Mark McCullers said that is much bigger news to me.

In today's Covering the Crew, Adam Jardy brings up that Dominic Oduro, Andy Gruenebaum and Josh Williams are about to be without a MLS contract. Along with Bernardo Anor, these are the three guys that have the most question marks surrounding their futures.

From Jardy's Dispatch blog:

"McCullers said Berhalter has been handling the ongoing negotiations with the trio and that he feels each will return to the Crew next season."

I sort of did a double take on this little bit of information. I'm sure that Berhalter would rather not anyone in the organization say anything about any player. Let alone the guy that Anthony Precourt made a point to pry off roster decisions.

Oduro, Gruenebaum and Williams made up about $290k to the cap in 2013. Two of them, Oduro and Williams, are likely working on larger deals.

To keep Oduro it will likely take around $200k and Williams is probably seeking about double ($100 to 130k). Gruenebaum would probably move on to the next standard veteran contract, whatever that is (130-150k maybe).

It turns three players at $290k in 2013 to $450k in 2014.

This affects next year's roster a great deal and something I know Berhalter and Precourt have barely started looking at.

MLS Witchcraft, Crew Budget Breakdown

Dug into the Crew budget/cap over at Massive Report.

You can check it out there if you want. If not, check out some of this HAIM. Your deal, man.

Final 2013 Crew KRAMB Scores

Kramb is a measurement / valuation I've been keeping track of over the past few years that helps tell me who is contributing to the success or failure of the side.

What it does is take an individual player's record when starting (PPG) and on pitch goal difference (GD) above or below team average. It looks like this:

KRAMB = (PLAYER PPG - TEAM PPG) + (PLAYER GD - TEAM GD)

Example:

0.04 : Tyson Wahl (1.21 - 1.21) + (-0.04 - -0.08)

The TEAM here is all the starters. TEAM GD of -0.08 is that of the starters only, compared to -0.12 overall team GD on the year. The drop indicates that subs lost ground (I'll look at that some other time)

Tyson is a good example because he is the replacement level player on the team. 12 players finished above him, 12 below. Here is the complete list, I'll use a five start minimum. At the bottom will be the lower start guys.

KRAMB : NAME : GAMES STARTED
+0.77 : Eddie Gaven 10
+0.56 : Matt Lampson 13
+0.37 : Agustín Viana 20
+0.31 : Justin Meram 9
+0.29 : Bernardo Anor 19
+0.25 : Tony Tchani 13
+0.13 : Dominic Oduro 34
+0.11 : Federico Higuaín 29
+0.10 : Gláuber Berti 13
+0.09 : Chad Barson 18
+0.07 : Chad Marshall 30
+0.04 : Tyson Wahl 24
-0.13 : Wil Trapp 16
-0.13 : Aaron Schoenfeld 3
-0.17 : Joshua Williams 25
-0.18 : Jairo Obando Arrieta 21
-0.30 : Eric Gehrig 6
-0.34 : Danny O´Rourke 19
-0.42 : Andy Gruenebaum 21
-0.53 : Ben Speas 10
-0.83 : Matías Sánchez 10

(not enough games)
-0.13 : Konrad Warzycha 2
-0.46 : Ethan Finlay 3
-0.80 : Ryan Finley 3
-1.46 : Kevan George 3

I'll split it out now, starting with PPG (split will be at replacement level):

PPG to REPLACEMENT : NAME : STARTS
0.41 : Matt Lampson 13
0.35 : Justin Meram 9
0.29 : Eddie Gaven 10
0.29 : Konrad Warzycha 2
0.18 : Chad Barson 18
0.14 : Agustín Viana 20
0.12 : Eric Gehrig 6
0.10 : Wil Trapp 16
0.10 : Federico Higuaín 29
0.10 : Tony Tchani 13
0.05 : Bernardo Anor 19

0.02 : Gláuber Berti 13
0.00 : Tyson Wahl 24
0.00 : Dominic Oduro 34

-0.01 : Chad Marshall 30
-0.09 : Joshua Williams 25
-0.11 : Jairo Obando Arrieta 21
-0.21 : Aaron Schoenfeld 3
-0.21 : Ethan Finlay 3
-0.21 : Ryan Finley 3
-0.26 : Andy Gruenebaum 21
-0.26 : Danny O´Rourke 19
-0.31 : Ben Speas 10
-0.41 : Matías Sánchez 10
-0.88 : Kevan George 3

...and here's Goal Difference above/below replacement

GD to REPLACEMENT : NAME : STARTS
+0.48 : Eddie Gaven 10
+0.24 : Bernardo Anor 19
+0.23 : Agustín Viana 20
+0.16 : Matt Lampson 13
+0.16 : Tony Tchani 13
+0.14 : Dominic Oduro 34
+0.08 : Gláuber Berti 13
+0.08 : Chad Marshall 30
+0.08 : Aaron Schoenfeld 3
+0.04 : Tyson Wahl 24
+0.01 : Federico Higuaín 29

-0.03 : Justin Meram 9
-0.06 : Jairo Obando Arrieta 21
-0.08 : Danny O´Rourke 19

-0.08 : Joshua Williams 25
-0.09 : Chad Barson 18
-0.16 : Andy Gruenebaum 21
-0.22 : Ben Speas 10
-0.23 : Wil Trapp 16
-0.25 : Ethan Finlay 3
-0.42 : Konrad Warzycha 2
-0.42 : Eric Gehrig 6
-0.42 : Matías Sánchez 10
-0.59 : Ryan Finley 3
-0.59 : Kevan George 3

Something that sticks out is the where a player falls on each list. This points to substitution patterns in most, but not all, cases. Next list will be the difference between (absolute value) the player's spot on each list.

ABS : NAME STARTS
18 : Konrad Warzycha 2
14 : Eric Gehrig 6
11 : Aaron Schoenfeld 3
11 : Chad Barson 18
11 : Wil Trapp 16
10 : Justin Meram 9
9 : Bernardo Anor 19
8 : Danny O´Rourke 19
8 : Dominic Oduro 34
7 : Chad Marshall 30
5 : Ben Speas 10

5 : Tony Tchani 13
4 : Andy Gruenebaum 21
4 : Jairo Obando Arrieta 21

4 : Ryan Finley 3
3 : Agustín Viana 20
3 : Gláuber Berti 13
3 : Matt Lampson 13
3 : Tyson Wahl 24
2 : Eddie Gaven 10
2 : Federico Higuaín 29
1 : Ethan Finlay 3
1 : Joshua Williams 25
1 : Matías Sánchez 10
0 : Kevan George 3

The guys toward the top aren't matching up. In Konrad's case it is more of a function of having only 2 starts.

Chad Barson is a good one to look at. He ended up 5th in PPG but 16th in GD. What this means is that the team scored after he was subbed out (which happened in Dallas late in the year). He got the win but was not part of the goal.

Fine margins, for sure, but it points to the enormity of a goal in this sport. A goal prevented here, another scored there... it's not just the difference in a single game but the difference between making the playoffs or not in MLS, particularly this year.

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OPPONENT DIFFICULTY

This measurement is just one way to look at things but it is something I find valuable and helps me to ask questions that lead down paths of better understanding of the team.

The largest, most direct path being the difficulty of opponent each starter faced. For example, Glauber ended up facing the easiest competition overall with an average opponent difficulty of 12.7 on the overall combined table.

Breaking Glauber's starts further tells us that 6 of his 13 total starts were against bottom 5 competition.

If you look at the ratio between a player's starts against top 5 and bottom five I see that Lampson, Barson, Anor, Trapp had the most difficult opponents.

For the guys with only a few starts, Kevan George sticks out. His only three starts were against top five teams. Talk about a tough row to hoe; New York, Sporting, LA.

Anyhow, assessing the difficulty of opponents is also affected by where the game is played (even what time it is played).

Gaven overall had easier opponents (only two in top 5) but 6 of his ten games were away. Guys like Anor (11/19 at home), Arrieta (12/21), Trapp (9/16) and Barson (10/18) benefited from home cookin'.

One callout here is Matias Sanchez who was like Gaven in that 6 of his 10 games were on the road (Viana also). Very difficult to get a decent GD this way.

So you can see that there are many ways to look at it.

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I call it KRAMB after Ryan Kramb (PhD, MS, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, BS University of Dayton) who once asked questions about such wild things.

More to come on this topic over at Massive Report so stay tuned!

Thanks for reading.

If you have any questions you can email me at ljbaby654@gmail.com or find me on twitter @helltownbeer.

2013 MLS Table, Columbus is Yellow

Above is the MLS table week by week for the 2013 season. I usually update it about twice a week or so to keep up with things - so I decided it'd be fun to put them all together here. The Go! Team won out for this post but I kinda liked it with some Yann Tiersen as well. Do whatever you like, though. Go Crazy.

Helltown

For whatever it's worth to you, the only independent voice on the Crew in Columbus.

Reviewing My Preseason Crew Prediction

Way back on March 2nd of this year I contributed to a post at Massive Report that outlined Crew season predictions.

Pretty basic stuff. Record, Expectations, MVP, Biggest Surprise, Biggest Disappointment.

Indented in teal will be what I wrote and underneath will be comments on what actually happened.

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PREDICTION, TEAM LINE

15W, 4D, 15L (49 pts, 6th in East -3 Goal Diff)

Did pretty well here. I think I would have been closer were it not for Eddie Gaven going down. I don't think Glauber staying healthy would have added much above replacement. My Goal Diff was almost dead on (-4 was actual).

...ON SEASON EXPECTATIONS

How the season plays out: The Crew will appear hot and cold this year because they will be able to handle lesser teams regularly but struggle with clubs equal to or better.

This was more or less true. Not hard to be wrong here. Teams always struggle with better competition. Lesson learned.

Over the past 3 years the Crew tend to start slow, do well in the middle and taper off at the end. Looking over the way the schedule is laid out there is no reason to think that will change this year (though, the Crew really have an opportunity to come charging out of the gates with 3 wins).

This wasn't that hard to predict. Under this Crew regime, it's same old song. Don't want to get into next year if they keep Bliss and Lapper but, well.. same regime. Not necessarily a bad thing, however.

I think that the Crew will fly up the table in June/July, possibly climbing to as high as 2nd or 3rd but struggle greatly late August and September. The Sept 14 (MTL), 21 (CHI) and 29 (FCD) games will likely be must wins to make the playoffs.

I was wrong about moving up the table. While they were higher they didn't really grab hold of anything. Those games in September were fairly key but the team was pretty out of by then.

...TEAM MVP

MVP: Higuain. There really isn't another choice here right now, the attack is dependent on him and he has the talent to deliver. I think Williams and Arrieta have a shot at as well.

Well, Higuain was right. Arrieta different story but I felt he was more due to poor man management.

...SURPRISES

Biggest Surprise: Change(s) amongst the assistant coaching / technical staff during the season - also, Eric Wynalda will address speculation about coming to Columbus during the USA v. MEX qualifier.

Ah, Duncan. Even deep down in my cold analytic heart did this hurt. The Wynalda thing sort of kicked in to gear and a fake twitter account of his addressed it. I'll give myself a check for that.

Biggest Disappointment: Overreacting / correcting. Crew will play games safe with 2 DMs and struggle to score goals - than experiment with just one to try and chase goals - then go back to starting 2 different DMs. Rinse - repeat.

This last one sort of makes me angry because it is exactly what happened and it was so predictable. I have on idea why adjustments were not made to improve this philosophy. It's puzzling, really.
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I'm fairly pleased with my prediction. Looking forward to doing this again in a few months. Quick Preview: this franchise will finish around the same spot next year unless drastic improvements are made.

Lots to happen between now and then, however. We'll see.

With Injured Gaven Photo Comes a Story

On May 29th 2013 the Crew were facing USL Pro side Dayton Dutch Lions for the 2nd straight year in a row in front of a few hundred folks.

Since the Crew had been knocked out the previous year by them Robert Warzycha and company decided it was important to field a very strong side that featured Federico Higuain, Danny O'Rourke and Eddie Gaven.

This was an exciting match for me as I had been watching a lot of the Lions before this game. Dayton had to play a couple USOC games just to get to this point and were starting to find some form.

In fact the Lions had already taken on the Crew not long before in Dayton for a Reserve match. That game was hotly contested so I expected a good one for the USOC.

The Crew ended up dominating most of the first half and not long into the second Eddie Gaven scored off a beautiful assist from Higuain to put the Crew up 1-0.



I think Warzycha thought this game was won by that point, so he took Higuain off the pitch to keep him from getting injured.

What happened as Higuain was jogging off I will never forget.

He took a detour and found Eddie and forceably applied the captains armband on him. He must have tried this before because it wasn't a hand off it was grabbing Eddies arm and looping it in. Higuain would then give a couple claps to the crowd and jog off.

Eddie, in true Eddie form, would drop his head and quickly slide off the armband and take it over to a nearby Danny O'Rourke. Danny didn't seem to hesitate in accepting it, almost like he expected it from Gaven.

Shortly before the game ended Eddie was chopped down, no foul was called but he tore his ACL.

The picture of Danny over Eddie reminds me of this exchange because you can see the captains armband sort of half put on, comforting Eddie.

No doubt a sad moment captured forever but it will always remind me of the armband exchange which has quickly become a favorite Gaven memory.

This is the type of player that he was, the kind of person he is. Wishing him the best in his post soccer career.

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The top photo is one I took before the game started and the bottom one of an injured Gaven was taken by Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports but with my liberal use of filters, cause I'm addicted to them right now.