Saturday, January 14, 2017

2013 MLS Superdraftees

MLS held its annual "super draft" yesterday. Well, most of it. It's still going, in a way, as there are more rounds next week.

Columbus picked a couple players in the first round (5th pick: Lalas Abubakar and 9th pick: Niko Hansen). It's a little unusual for any MLS team to pick twice in the first round, but Gregg Berhalter and co. pulled it off via... whatever wonky MLS thing has to happen for that to work out.

This had me wondering out first round picks have worked out. The best way to work that out is to look at a draft class from a few years ago. 2013, to be more specific. How are those guys doing? Are they still contributing to their respective teams?

Turns out they are. Well, at least more than I thought they were. I remember looking at this a few years ago and coming to the conclusion that picking 1-10 is basically the only thing that nets you a good college player. Turns out, 2013 pretty much worked that way.

The success rate in the top 20 tells us a couple things. 1. College produces around 3-5 regular starters over a four-year span and 2. Much of it depends on the situation the player goes to. If you hit on both those then you have yourself a cheap, durable pro player who had no other options but to sign with the team that drafted him!

Here are the players in the graphic above:

1. Andrew Farrell
2. Carlos Alvarez
3. Kyle Bekker
4. Kekuta Manneh
5. Erik Hurtado
6. Deshorn Brown
7. Walker Zimmerman
8. Blake Smith
9. Ryan Finley
10. Eriq Zavaleta
11. Dillon Powers
12. John Stertzer
13. Jason Johnson
14. Mikey Lopez
15. Tommy Muller
16. Emery Welshman
17. Taylor Kemp
18. Fernando Monge
19. Charlie Rugg

Last note; None of these players, outside of Deshorn Brown, have progressed beyond MLS. Ryan Finley and Charlie Rugg are still bouncing around the nordic region, but have yet to take root.

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