Tuesday, June 24, 2014

The New USMNT: Familiarity, Preparation and Eliminating Mistakes

david scheirer, Whale Tails and Red Fox
This year’s World Cup has started in similar fashion as 2002 for the US. A hard fought win in the first match and a draw in the second is the same as it was 12 years ago. Four points earned with little risk from only one uncontrollable outcome to finish off the group stage. Interestingly, in ’02 it was the US hoping for a Portugal loss in the third game (which happened) and the US looking for a positive result against Poland (which didn't happen).

So, the similarities are there but that internationally experience heavy team went on to the Quarter-finals where this one might not have that ability and the road a bit tougher (Belgium awaits in the round of 16) so they will have to continue to rely on some other tools.

Looking back now, three World Cup cycles on from 2002, it seems more the US finally jumped back to where it should have been for the previous half century.

Bruce Arena and Bob Bradley should take loads of credit for making this happen but there are a number of things Jurgen Klinsmann has done that they were never interested in - first of which is taking the US and making them part of the world’s game instead of keeping them separate. This, to me, is the marked advancement for Team USA this go ‘round.

By taking part in the global game at the international level the US is no longer an outlier. No longer that very large, feral and bizarre animal that has somehow wondered into the city from the woods every four years. In a weird way, Klinsmann has trained it and is able to take it out in social situations at the park.

Now you have a coach that the rest of the world knows and one now that makes it okay for the rest of the world to care. A stamp of legitimacy. Sort of like the difference between Billy Ray Cyrus giving you advice in an old country song verses Dr. William R. Cyrus doing it in a medical journal.

Klinsmann also has a deep understanding of the game's place within culture. The importance of it. The rhythm of it. The pulse of tournaments, seasons, leagues and the World Cup.

ELIMINATING MISTAKES

One of most critical ingredients in building something successful and long lasting is to focus on the process that gets you there. Once you have the process down and have repeatable output (results) you can start to improve, even if the output is not all that great at least you know why. Only when you understand the inputs into the process, can you make it better. Otherwise it’s random events and your chasing ghosts.

Klinsmann has brought this, knowingly or just by the fact he is German, to the US Men’s team. It’s built into him. He knows that if you eliminate errors you reduce risk. How do you eliminate them? By finding them and working on them.

In this last game where the US gave up a late goal to Portugal it was because of a number of little errors that I’m sure will drive Klinsmann crazy, but he can take comfort in the fact that it is rare since he took over. This approach to the game shown through results over the past couple years. It’s not that this team has better talent - it’s that they don’t make as many mistakes.

Opta tracks how many times a player is dispossessed or turns the ball over. What I've done below here is take the amount of time each team has had the ball using possession % and calculate how many minutes elapse, on average, before the ball is lost by error (Turnover, TO and Dispossessed, Disp).

Min of Possession to Disp or TO
Team
05:56
GERMANY
04:09
USA
03:54
NIGERIA
03:44
ARGENTINA
03:35
ITALY
03:29
MEXICO
03:25
JAPAN
03:23
SWITZERLAND
03:22
CROATIA
03:22
GHANA
03:18
IVORY COAST
03:14
COLOMBIA
03:09
PORTUGAL
03:08
SOUTH KOREA
03:07
SPAIN
03:06
FRANCE
03:04
BRAZIL
03:02
RUSSIA
03:02
CHILE
03:01
GREECE
02:51
NETHERLANDS
02:49
ALGERIA
02:41
COSTA RICA
02:39
BELGIUM
02:36
BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA
02:36
URUGUAY
02:29
ENGLAND
02:23
HONDURAS
02:14
ECUADOR
02:06
AUSTRALIA
01:55
CAMEROON
01:25
IRAN

Looks like we have a little normal distribution of data in the table above, with the USA only behind Germany. There are a lot of things that can be pulled from this but the main takeaway is that it's not necessarily Klinsmann's soccer philosophy that puts the US were it is, as much as it is the country he is from.

Reducing errors certainly isn't the only ingredient in the formula for success but it is one of the parts of the overall game that can best be controlled and are absolute gold dust when attributes like superior talent, instinct, individual drive and the like are scarce.

Identify inputs, put in controls, achieve consistent results and then work on improving them. The Germans have perfected this and while Jurgen Klinsmann is here, the USMNT have it too. The real trick will be to keep it going after he moves on. Is the US in the middle of a "golden age" then? Likely.

Unless the US wants to return to "run fast, try hard," I'd look at A) hiring another German with an excellent world perspective and a love for the United States or B) reading up on sustainability. 

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