Saturday, August 17, 2013

Predictions: Crew (H) v Toronto

There is a soccer match tonight at Crew Stadium as the Major League Soccer franchises from Ohio (USA) and Ontario (Canada) fight for Great Lake Erie Superiority (GLES). Kickoff is at 7:30 PM EST or 11:30 PM GMT.

GAME NOTES
-CLB: Home form last six = 13th in MLS
-CLB: less than 3% chance of making playoffs, trying new things
-CLB: GK Gruenebuam likely out again.
-TFC: Away form last six = 8th in MLS
-TFC: Getting better but trying new things

GAME PREDICTIONS
(In no particular order)

1. MLSSOCCER.COM ... TORONTO FC
In a bit of a surprise the Pick 'em team thinks that TFC will take this one. 4 of 6 saying so (1 Crew, 1 draw).

2. WV HOOLIGAN ... COLUMBUS CREW
Drew Epperley likes the Crew straight up, "...no surprises here as they win a rivalry game at home." Crew 2:0 Reds

3. BET 365 ... COLUMBUS CREW
Home team getting better than even odds today (8/11) followed up with 5/2 draw and 4/1 TFC. Two most likely scorelines are 1:0 Crew and 1:1 draw.

4. TABLE POSITION ... COLUMBUS CREW

5. GOAL.COM ... COLUMBUS CREW (LEAN)
Whoa.(!)? The author of the one line summary isn't listed today (my money is on Hickey though). Whomever it might be, they like the Crew... "Columbus snapped a losing streak last week and will be looking to build on that win with another against TFC." Lower down the column sees fans picking the Crew to win (50%).

6. HOME TEAM ... COLUMBUS CREW

7. WIN DRAW WIN ... DRAW
A little different here today. Large Stake is on a 1:1 draw and the Your Vote section follows suit as draw gets 41% majority. Columbus 26% and Toronto 31%.

8. DISPATCH ... COLUMBUS CREW (LEAN)
"The Crew is 0-4-2 after a victory this season, and Toronto seems to be the type of team to help end such a streak." - Man on the Crew beat, Adam Jardy.

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GAME THOUGHTS
I was thinking about adding form as one of the game predictors but decided against it (for now). Biggest reason is that the Crew have not won two games in a row since the middle of last year. They are now far and away leading the league in this very simple fact and that sort of overrides any short term form, right now.

Toronto was with them but they finally crossed that bridge three weeks ago. In fact, TFC have two wins and a draw in their last four. That puts them above the Crew as far as recent form.

So, form = TFC? Not really. Only one team in MLS is in road form right now. Sporting KC 11 pts / 6 games is tops then RSL with 10 in 6. Everyone else is below 8pts in 6.

Tonight is good opportunity for the Crew before they take their league worst road form (1 pt in last 6 games. Have allowed 15 goals and carry a -8 goal difference) on the road next week.

Anyhow, the above is why I'm not adding form to my list.

On to the match: Not looking for many changes to the Crew lineup this week. We'll probably see same formation as well with Trapp at the CDM and Anor playing the CM spot. There is a possibility that fans see Speas jump in over Meram, I guess. Otherwise it will be the regulars in Higuain, Arrieta, Oduro, Barson, Williams, Marshall and Viana rounding it out.

The lineup is fine. I think Oduro should be a weapon used coming off the bench if the team is down at the hour mark but it'll never happen. As it stands, the Crew don't really have anybody to bring on the shake it up in the middle and Ryan Finley is extremely green.

The Crew are built to jump up by a goal and then defend it through shear number of defensive players on the squad, if that goes off plan the team has trouble.

Tonight's game will be jumpy, choppy and foul riddled. Most matches involving the Crew are this way now. TFC only makes the preceding statement more likely. There is not sugar coating this game. It is a match between two teams way down the table.

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Less jumpy, choppy and foul riddled were the games filling up my screens this morning. Welcome back Premier League.

Billy Sasquatch, Master English Breakfast Chef.

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