Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Gregg Berhalter and the Magic Towel

The above photo is of the Columbus Crew coach and sporting director, Gregg Berhalter, during his short time in charge of Hammarby in Sweden. Note what seems to be a scarf around his neck. Months of in-depth research lead me, Vidda "JibJab" Grubin, to believe that scarf is really a simple towel in disguise.

I have been accused of paranoid conspiracy leanings in the past. Heck, just yesterday I was rudely accused of that very thing during a discussion about SpongeBob SquarePants. Is he simply a well-intentioned adolescent sponge earning his keep flipping crabby patties and spending his free time catching jellyfish with his pink friend, Patrick? Or, is he a yellow-bellied commie sympathizer out to brainwash the youth from "sea to shining sea".

Each episode of SpongeBob begins with a supreme ruler, an evil looking uncle-like captain, who sings: "Who lives in a pineapple..." (think Cuba), "...under the sea" (what does he have to hide?). "He's absorbent and yellow..." (yellow, really? pretty obvious there). This captain guy tells all the kids in America to "...drop on the deck and flop like a fish." (Red, white and blue kids ain't floppers or fish. Damn, that gets me going!).

Anyway, back to Gregg Berhalter and the towel disguised as a scarf. If you have read my stuff previously, you know that I adhere to the rules of universal travel (credit to the late, great Douglas Adams): always carry a towel, keep a copy of The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy handy and listen closely to what the dolphins have to say. Gregg Berhalter, I think, has the towel part perfected.

Berhalter's discovery of the universal usefulness of even the most simple of towels dates back to the photo above. My research proves that Gregg Berhalter's time in Sweden found the current Columbus Crew coach with only a towel at his disposal. That towel likely saved his life when things began to go sour. The goals dried up, and losses led to Hammarby's faithful calling for Berhalter's head.
The photo above shows the towel disguised as a tie. The towel couldn't help Berhalter save his job, but it did, with a little help from the Stockholm police, see him safely out of Sweden.
Berhalter was cast into the wilderness. He had to find a copy of The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. If he did, he knew he might find the Heart of Gold spaceship with its Infinite Improbability Drive. Notice the towel disguised as a scarf in the photo above.

Somewhere, after his narrow escape from Sweden and during his wanderings around Europe, I believe Mr. Berhalter did find a copy of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. Nothing else explains his miraculous arrival in Columbus, Ohio. Without the "Guide" he never would have known about the magical yellow stadium and its dolphin professed Scioto River Catfish Taco future (see: Helton Janglom's Template for Life. No, really, read it, it's good).


Showing the wear and tear of a lucky vagabond (the look in the above picture, that sly smirk, proves Gregg Berhalter had in his possession a copy of the "Guide." And, again, the towel as scarf), the Columbus Crew's coach was ready to build the next great soccer dynasty. All he needed was to locate the Heart of Gold spaceship.

While his initial attempts to improve the Crew were successful, they soon ran into hard times. After opening the 2014 season with three straight wins, the Black and Gold began a seventeen game run in which they would win just two games. Things were not looking good for Columbus' newest hitchhiker.

I propose that it was during this run of poor form that Coach Berhalter found the priceless Heart of Gold Spaceship. The photo below is proof.
Somehow Berhalter found a way to turn the towel into a shirt. Genius. He must have the Heart of Gold, and he used it to travel to the planet Ablididas. Clearly, he inserted his towel into a run of shirts being made on the planet by its many family owned stitcheries. Possibly the dolphins told him to.

Also as obvious is the fact that Gregg Berhalter decided to stick with the youngsters on his roster. He chose to run-out players like Finlay, Meram, Anor, Jimenez, Trapp and Gehrig week after week despite the mounting number of ties and losses in the middle of the season. Only a trip on the Heart of Gold could account for such an astute decision.
Gregg Berhalter must have gone back in time to the moment in the photo above. He then realized that his mentor and former coach, Bruce Arena, not only had in his possession a copy of The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, but Arena had somehow completely ingested any number of towels throughout his own travels. (Simply look at the size and shape of the man. There is no other explanation).

Having traveled back in time, Berhalter asked his mentor "What's the secret to success in Major League Soccer?" Arena's reply, "Stick with the youngsters." As Berhalter began to ask what the answer to "Life, The Universe and Everything" is, he was swept into a black hole and had to find his way back to Columbus. The search for his Midwest home was arduous, but short. Columbus is often confused with black holes. Finding a place similar to a black hole, while in a black hole, is not easy.

Once back in Ohio, Berhalter stuck with his youngsters and has been rewarded with more goals, entertaining soccer and a chance to continue building a soccer dynasty in Columbus, Ohio of all places.
The photo above confirms my theory. Notice the out of out-of-character smile, the towel as tiny Crew badge and the bit of weight Coach Berhalter seems to have put on (all clear signs of someone having swallowed their first towel).

(Photos in this article courtesy of www.dispatch.com www.thecrew.com www.mlssoccer.com and various Swedish websites)

























 

Monday, September 8, 2014

Crew Sign Austrian Defender, Cap Space Estimate

The Columbus Crew announced the signing of Austrian Defender Emanuel Pogatetz today. No official details on the deal but on his personal website it is was noted that he will be top five defender in salary (that tidbit seems to be taken down).

Not a lot of mystery to players these days. Outside of the amount of video and access online, you also have armies of video game ratings and analysis.

Pogotetz is a solid defender and has been brought in to fill the hole that Giancarlo Gonzalez left when he successfully transferred to Palermo last month. He's not as young as Gonzalez or will he fetch a future transfer fee, he will, however, keep goals from happening better than most replacement level MLS defenders. He also brings a mountain of experience to the team.

His exact salary isn't known but we can estimate it to be in the $300k range. Pogotetz was out of contract so it's reasonable to assume there was not transfer fee (allocation) involved. With the addition, the Crew are likely return to around $400k in free cap space (that's 2014 MLS cap space, anyway. Reports, as well as my estimates, have the 2015 cap space increasing modestly to $5 million from the $3.1 it is now).

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A player like this is a good signing for a MLS team. Depending on his adjustment period he should be adding a degree of toughness to the Crew back line. He's certainly got a couple good years in him and is a couple steps above current options if looking less immediate and more 12-18 months.

In other words, a player like Pogatetz keeps you out of the bottom of the league.

Finally, now that the Crew have filled the hole Gonzalez left they should be moving on to Forwards.

Sunday, September 7, 2014

17,043


The announced attendance figure at Crew Stadium this afternoon for their 3-0 win over Chivas USA was 17,043, which works out to be about 85% of the 20k capacity. There wasn't anywhere near that amount at 1 Black and Gold Blvd today.

Recording a Tickets Sold figure that doesn't match with what's actually in stadium isn't unique to the Columbus Crew or even MLS, in particular. A couple years ago the Boston Red Sox were announcing a record string of sellouts that turned out to be completely bogus (and embarrassing).

While "announced attendance" is reportedly tickets sold, it clearly isn't the turnstile number. The latter is very important, as a sizable percentage of team revenue comes from parking, merchandise, concessions, etc. Over the years the Crew haven't been the best at getting ticket buyers to the stadium. Inexpensive package deals and group sales may be the primary culprits, but he primary driver is likely only known to the head of sales.

Sometimes low, but most of the time it's way over what is actually at the stadium. The difference between "announced" and turnstile only becomes an issue when they are clearly not anywhere close to matching up. It needs to be tightened up.

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I've been to sellout Crew games as well as games where only a few thousand show. Games at 85% capacity are assigned seating type events - not "Larry can pick his spot in the upper deck" games.

Most Crew games fall in the estimated 12-15k variety.

Podcast: Red Cards in Helltown - Episode XIV



David Burgin joins Larry Johnson and host Rick Gethin on this week's podcast.

00:60 HEADLINES
• We dig into what happened in Toronto, firings, poor results
• It will just take a couple wins for them to stay in it
• Missing Defoe
• MLS Commissioner on Promotion / Relegation
• "A very shallow pool"
• Soccer people are not "I watch all sports, people"

19:00 COLUMBUS CREW
• We all assume Crew beat Chivas (which they do)
• Berhalter's playoff goal 49 pts (via Jardy and Dispatch)
• Philly, New England key
• David talks about how much one player can impact
• Kraft swooping in to get Jones
• Organizational distractions
• Players with MLS experience
• Wil Trapp's future, "crossroads?"
• Manchester City Trailist in Columbus
• Bedell's play, one touch back to the midfield

39:20 MLS STANDINGS, NOTES
• Eastern Conference table
• NY vs Sporting KC
• Toronto is the dark horse
• Intense time of MLS calendar, competitively
• Western Conf look
• Colorado... guh
• Klopas frustration
• Player apathy
• Henry fire

54:35 QUICK HIT
• USL Pro / MLS Reserve relationship
• Spreading the money, thin

Predictions: Crew Home vs MLS Team

Columbus Crew host the league owned LA team today at 3:00 PM EST, 12:00 PM EST.

GAME NOTES
CLB: Trapp, Tchani suspended (yellow accumulation)
CLB: Look to bounce back after disappointing loss
CLB: Still looking for consistent production from forward position
MLS; (nothing notable)

GAME PREDICTIONS
Number on far left is percentage accuracy picking result. In parentheses is correct picks in last ten games.

50% (5) COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... COLUMBUS CREW (fav)
46% (3) WHOSCORED.COM ... COLUMBUS CREW
42% (4) GOAL.COM ... DRAW
42% (5) MLSSOCCER ... COLUMBUS CREW
42% (5) WIN DRAW WIN ... COLUMBUS CREW
38% (5) HOME TEAM ... COLUMBUS CREW
35% (4) BET365 ... COLUMBUS CREW
27% (5) TABLE POSITION ... COLUMBUS CREW
--% (-) WV HOOLIGAN ... (no pick)
--% (-) MASSIVE REPORT ... (no pick)

GAME THOUGHTS
The Crew come into this one as heavy favorites against a team whose future is very much uncertain. Bet365 has the home side 4/9 favorites, Win Draw Win likes this one as a 1-0 win with only 14% of the user votes going the visitors way.

Adam Jardy's preview for the Dispatch isn't quite as confident on the Crew side as it was last week when the team took on a poor Montreal saying they have "take care of business against the worst team in the West."

MLSsoccer.com, on the other hand, picked the Crew across the board.

Even without regular starters in Tony Tchani and Wil Trapp, anything less than a win today will raise some serious questions as the opposition is in comparatively complete dysfunction.

Weather looks pretty good, clear and warm.

The Cable Snapped, or Innoncence Lost??



The Cable Snapped, or Innocence Lost
By: Vidda “JibJab” Grubin
September 7, 2014 (Amended January 16, 2017)

{The below is an update of a piece I wrote over two years ago. Given the trajectory of Major League Soccer, I thought a redo was in order.}

The cable snapped…twang…quietly. The auditory nature of the “twang” made sense, the cable was made out of Twizzlers. The kids picked up the scatted pieces of red deliciousness quicker than a soccer mom, or dad, can peel an orange.

The game was over and Tommy and Timmy had somehow found a way to tie Twizzlers around their two dirt and grass-stained soccer balls. After circling the individual balls in sugary goodness, the two friends got the idea to tie the balls together with the remaining stretchy lengths of candy.

Gabbi, the goalkeeper for the under seven Squarepants Middleburg Youth Soccer Association team, had shouted “See how far you can stretch the balls apart.” Her declaration of childhood ingenuity was met by a raucous cheer from the rest of the Squarepants team.

Tommy and Timmy began pulling, slowly, the two balls apart. Time seemed to stand still as the small group of six and seven-year-olds (scraped knees, runny noses and bed hair) leaned closer. One or two attentive parents joined the time altering fun.

Six inches apart, seven, eight and then…twang…quietly. The picking-up and eating of the Twizzlers was accompanied by shouts of “Don’t eat that!” and “Gross!” Not a single child present remembered the game which had ended only five minutes earlier.

One particular dad remembered. He was busy waving his hands wildly at the 13-year-old referee. Words were coming out of the crimson faced father’s mouth. Something about offside and something about the Squarepants’ opponents, The Fiddlesticks, deserving to win. The 13-year-old ref stared, slack jawed, at the wild-eyed father. And then, the 13-year-old walked away, while mumbling “Wow” under his breath.

Like that Fiddlesticks father, North American soccer has finally made it to the edge of reason. North American soccer’s version is the billion-dollar, sports as big time business precipice. Major League Soccer has pushed the beautiful game up the rocky slope. There have been casualties along the way. The Tampa Bay Mutiny come to mind. There have been near disasters. Paul Caligiuri almost having to play more than a single season in Columbus, Ohio may have destroyed what little credibility MLS clung to in its infancy.

Don Garber, Major League Soccer’s billionaire owners and wanna-be owners want to push our sport over the edge and into the rainbow, unicorn and pot of gold filled valley below. The LeBron James, Mark Cuban, Jerry Jones, Tom Brady and Derek Jeter filled valley.

For many soccer fans, myself included, the trip up the mountain has been fun, a kind of affirmation of the bullied child’s life and dreams. For many soccer fans, like myself (somewhere between 45 and 60 years old), the thought of riding the unicorns and digging in the pots of gold is both quiver-inducing and nauseating.

We want to see the world’s greatest players on our Columbus Crew, Chicago Fire, New York Red Bull, Seattle Sounders and L.A. Galaxy. We want to watch youngsters born and raised in the United States command Messi-like respect. But we grew up with a chip on our shoulder. We carry that chip proudly. That chip helps define our soccer minds. That chip is as big as a boulder taken from the mountainside as we climbed higher and higher. That chip is made of taunts like “Soccer is for sissies. Why don’t you move to France if you want to play that commie sport? Soccer will never be big in the United States.”

Despite the rocky past, we cherish Saturdays at the park with our children. We look forward to a Thursday evening beverage remembering the ferociousness of a shot, the creativeness of a pass shared with the handful of lucky travelers who played the game alongside us in the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s. Our sport was our special secret, only the chosen few knew what made it shine.

Now, North American soccer is about to leap into a world of cocky, self-assured prominence. There is no room for hard-won boulders. What are we supposed to do with all those boulders? So many un-answered questions.

Will there still be room for size four soccer balls wrapped in Twizzlers? Or, perhaps more importantly, for the adult equivalent of size four soccer balls wrapped in Twizzlers, hidden coolers of beer dragged triumphantly from beneath team benches, flung open, contents emptied in a glorious celebration of the local team, it’s fans and caretakers winning the right to play at the next level?

You know, those boulders might just come in handy. Strap them on. Wear them proudly; because, there is one universal truth about our sport. The more human beings who feel a direct connection to the ball, the field of play, the teams, the players, coaches and fans, the greater the magical players become, the more vivid the magical moments shine.

We and all those who came before us, and our children after, those who slogged through mud puddles, spent hours juggling into the night, used trashcans for goals and cracked shins created the opportunity for the handful of businessmen who started Major League Soccer. It is our boulder to carry, and that boulder is shared with hundreds of millions around this beautiful planet.

Those who think they “own” the sport of soccer in this hemisphere must earn their place among us. There is nothing stopping them, the United States Soccer Federation and Major League Soccer, from regionalizing soccer (the blueprint is already in place at the youth level) in this country from the very bottom to the very top. There is nothing stopping the USSF and Major League Soccer from implementing a standardized set of criteria/rules for promotion and relegation within each region. There is nothing stopping the USSF and Major League Soccer from beginning promotion and relegation in the lower divisions and promotion only into the top tier, MLS, when teams in the second tier win their way in and meet the set criteria for top level play.

Would Major League Soccer want twenty years before a single team is relegated from the top tier? So be it. Give them twenty years. Do they want 7 or 8 teams per region, per level and five or six regions? So be it. This is a large country and close proximity of regular competition brings us all greater joy. Would Major League Soccer still want a championship among the winners of each region? So be it.


In a weird way, it is our burden, those wearisome boulders, which may reconnect the frayed and snapped cables of North American soccer. It is all of us who bear their weight who must bring, kicking and screaming if need be, USSF and MLS back into the beautiful game’s wide open soul.

Saturday, September 6, 2014

Bedell's On Target Accuracy

Adam Bedell's lineup inclusion is due in some part to circumstance. Through Dominic Oduro's departure, Jairo Arrieta's form and nagging injuries and the team being generally thin at the Forward position that Bedell has gotten his chance.

Even with Aaron Schoenfeld returning from his loan stint with and impressive goal scoring run in Dayton, Bedell still manages to get time. It's possible that Schoenfeld may actually start to get a start or two in the future but the situation has me asking questions.

The big one: Is it really just circumstance that Bedell is in there?

I don't get to see practices (nobody does, really), nor do we have reserve games any more where we can see players like Bedell play. We don't even get to see scrimmages anymore. The Columbus Crew, well, keep things pretty closed up these days. So to answer the question of why a player might be playing takes a couple things (we'll get 2 "whys" deep here, for all you six sigma people).

1. Faith that the coach is doing the right thing by playing him via practice.

2. Said player gets time in regular season games and/or public friendlies, has good stats.

Since number one is unreliable (yes, even coaches like Berhalter are susceptible to it, especially the longer the relationship with a player, it's natural), we have to go with number two.

Bedell, with 632 crossed my first imaginary line of 450 minutes (five 90 minute games) and is now working on my next, more important line of 900 minutes. He's in that 5-10 game zone of "is this real or a trend" that I've observed.

If we take a quick look at Non-Penalty Goals + Assists (NPG+A) of all the forwards in the league over 450 minutes played we see that Bedell falls just under what we might call a replacement level player (average forward MLS guy).

click to enlarge
Since it would only take one more goal or assist to put Bedell at 0.43 he is right on the edge of changing peoples attitudes towards his production. He's not there though and there are a lot of players that are only that last step away from jumping up a level.

Digging just slightly deeper, is shot creation and accuracy (not looking at chance creation right now, where he does have 7 key passes logged this year). Bedell is doing ok in one, good in another.

While he isn't getting as many chances has we might like per game (52nd overall of Forwards over 450) he is making them count when he does take them (13th overall in Shots on Target per game).

SOT per Game : Name
2.14 Clint Dempsey
1.99 Bradley Wright-Phillips
1.97 Robbie Keane
1.79 Kekuta Manneh
1.77 Deshorn Brown
1.61 Chad Barrett
1.58 Fanendo Adi
1.58 Dom Dwyer
1.57 Jermain Defoe
1.54 Marco Di Vaio
1.54 Joao Plata
1.44 Chris Wondolowski
1.42 Adam Bedell

That's a pretty good list of players. Here's how that looks up against all Crew Forwards since 2010...

1.58 Emilio Renteria 2010
1.42 Adam Bedell 2014
1.38 Andres Mendoza 2011
1.32 Emilio Renteria 2011
1.23 Jairo Arrieta 2012

Adam Bedell isn't getting all the chances he needs (some of this due to team tactics) he is placing them on frame at a higher rate than most of the other forwards and this is likely what Berhalter see's and likes - but here we are at the end of this post now and we are left with why he doesn't have at least one more goal?

"Luck?" A simple moment of brilliant goalkeeping (a blast in DC comes to mind that Bedell had)? One more goal and he jumps to the league average for MLS forwards with 3.33 goals per shot on frame (3.15). As it stands though, it's taken Bedell five shots on frame to get a goal. Too many.

There is a case to be made that Berhalter's faith in this particular player will be rewarded. There are enough signs that Bedell can become a productive Forward, but he isn't quite there yet - even when he does get there, you need something better than just productive to be a good team.

As it stands, Bedell (as a player in a forward role) is doing pretty much what is asked on the shot taking front. He's getting chances and putting them on target. There are other figures that point to the Crew need a better possession / holding / passing forward but that's a post for another day. Bedell is what they have now.

Friday, September 5, 2014

The SuperDraft is Dead, Once More for Ryan Finley

Do you know how many top 10 MLS "superdraft" picks have played over 1000 minutes a season since 2011? How about the number that have performed above replacement at their position since then? Have any been signed for a bigger payday with a different club - here, or overseas?

Ryan Finley, 9th pick in the 2013 MLS SuperDraft by the Columbus Crew, returns to Crew Stadium this weekend. He isn't the answer to any of the questions above, but none of the draft picks meet the qualifications in my first paragraph. The MLS draft is silly.

I like Ryan Finlay. He's a breed of player that MLS relies on while at the same time takes for granted. A "do your part, stay in line, don't ask questions" type of college kid. The league would prefer them to be like one of those generic enemies in that latest video game military shooter. Fodder. Dempsey filler, perhaps. But Finley sort of dares to step out a bit.



Twenty some games in, playing on his second team, trying to get the dozens of fans fired up along with teammates on a league owned franchise. Dash of fire. Hint of passion. He wants to be somebody and in a league filled with nobodies, that's more than good enough for me.

Monday, September 1, 2014

Crew Passing ('13 vs '14)

We are far enough into the 2014 season to get a good feel between Gregg Berhalter's Columbus Crew and Robert Warzycha's. While I'm noticing plenty of differences, not many stand out as differently as passing statistics.


Just about any fan that has watched the Crew for the past few years can tell you the team passes and posses the ball more. This also leads to said fan to say the team is more enjoyable to watch. While the overall trend in the world is to do such things, it is still a part of the game that hasn't quite made it to MLS save for a handful of teams (Crew being one that is trying).

Passing can tell you a lot about the way a team plays. How many is usually a quick and easy way to know what a team likes to do. If you dig a little deeper you can find out where the passes are coming from and to what degree of success they happen.

Drilling down on passing is not what I'm doing here today, just taking a look at how the volume of passes has changed verses last year. I knew there was a difference, but had not idea it was this much. So, it gets a mini post were I get to play with charts and learn how to post them.

Here is passing totals by round vs last year.