Top Passers in the USL, 2018

The USL regular season has wrapped up, so I decided to dig into the wealth of data available on their site. First up - Passing.

The better passers you have on the team the better your possession. This means you can dictate more of the game. Do what you want to do instead of having it done to you. If that makes any sense.

Along with a couple of charts, I want to get to what it means to have good passers on your team. How I did this - take a few measurements that Opta has pulled out of USL games. Those categories:

1. Total Passes
2. Pass Completion %
3. % Complete in Opposition Half
4. Long Pass % Complete

Here are the top 12 players when you take the rank in each of those categories:

Having the better passers in the league should mean you have a better team. Obviously, that's not always the case, but let's put it to the test real quick.

By my count, there are 527 players that have managed over 900 minutes this year. If we take to top 20% passers (which works out to be about 100 players) and match them up with their team records, we should see a relationship.

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Pos.	City	P	W	L	T	GD	Pts	Top Passers
1	Cincinnati	34	23	3	8	38	77	4
2	Orange County SC	34	20	8	6	30	66	6
3	Louisville City	34	19	6	9	33	66	5
4	Sacramento Republic	34	19	7	8	15	65	3
5	Phoenix Rising	34	19	9	6	25	63	1
6	Real Monarchs	34	19	12	3	8	60	9
8	Reno 1868	34	16	7	11	18	59	6
7	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	34	15	5	14	21	59	2
9	Charleston Battery	34	14	6	14	13	56	3
10	Portland Timbers 2	34	17	13	4	9	55	4
12	Saint Louis	34	14	9	11	6	53	4
11	Swope Park Rangers	34	15	11	8	-1	53	3
13	New York Red Bulls II	34	13	8	13	12	52	0
14	Bethlehem Steel	34	14	12	8	15	50	2
15	San Antonio	34	14	12	8	-3	50	1
17	Nashville SC	34	12	9	13	11	49	4
16	Indy Eleven	34	13	11	10	3	49	1
18	North Carolina FC	34	13	13	8	10	47	7
19	Ottawa Fury	34	13	15	6	-12	45	0
20	OKC Energy	34	12	15	7	-3	43	4
21	Charlotte Independence	34	10	12	12	-13	42	6
22	Tampa Bay Rowdies	34	11	15	8	0	41	5
24	Fresno FC	34	9	13	12	6	39	3
23	Colorado Springs	34	11	17	6	-3	39	2
25	Rio Grande Valley	34	8	12	14	-6	38	2
26	Penn FC	34	9	15	10	-9	37	1
27	LA Galaxy II	34	10	17	7	-7	37	1
28	Atlanta United 2	34	7	17	10	-35	31	7
29	Las Vegas Lights FC	34	8	19	7	-24	31	0
30	Seattle Sounders 2	34	6	21	7	-31	25	2
31	Richmond Kickers	34	6	24	4	-50	22	3
32	Tulsa Roughnecks	34	3	19	12	-41	21	2
33	Toronto II	34	4	24	6	-35	18	2

Great, it works out (mostly).

- Top 5 average 4 players in the top 20% of all passers in the league.
- Middle group has 3
- Bottom averages 2.

Or, to put it another way. Average points earned if you have +5 top passers is 52. If you have 2 or less? Those teams averaged 41 pts. 11 point difference. Find passers everyone.

Below will be a more straightforward look at the top passers in the USL for 2018. Total passes / Overall Completion %.

USL Passing: Total Passes / Passing % Infogram

SPECIAL PLAYER CALLOUTS 

The United Soccer League isn't looked at as a pathway to a higher league. Part of that is exposure, part of that is the way soccer is structured in the United States. That said, here are some players that warrant a closer look.

1. Graham Smith, North Carolina FC. DM, 24 years old Graham is in the top 20% in all my categories. Notably 5th in passing in the opponents half of the field. At 24, he's reaching mid-career without a whole lot of professional experience, but what he's done in his first USL season is impressive.  

2. Boluwatife Akinyode, Nashville, DM, 24 years old Another defensive mid and ranked first in Pass% and % complete in the opposition half. He's been bouncing around the NY Red Bulls system for years, with stops at Bethlehem and NCFC. Currently mired in mid-table nowhere's ville Nashville, he's definitely worth a closer look.  

3. Justin Portillo, Real Monarchs, MF, 26 years old Justin spent quite a bit of time with the Charleston Battery and has struck gold in the USL. the Monarchs have 9 players in the top 20% according to my measurement, he tops the list.

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There are two Graham Smith's in the USL. The other plays off and on for Swope Park as well as MLS Sporting KC. Both are good players, but the NCFC one is better (at least in terms of the 2018 USL season).

Solutions to a Soccer Problem in North America

The beginning of Autumn marks the end of another year in the top three divisions of soccer in North America and ushers in the playoffs. But instead of being the best time of year, the postseason is more of a meandering epilogue to a novel that has an unsure grasp of an underdeveloped regular season.

Fall is also a reminder of soccer's place in the pecking order of domestic sports because it tries to be other sports. It's a fundamental issue of league competition. In particular - meaningful games.

How to fix that right now without blowing it up? I'll get to the long answer here in a minute, but the short answer is to create a competition that involves the top three levels of pro soccer immediately and without impacting investments or league rules. The idea also lays the foundation for linking the pyramid down the road (sooner, rather than later).

It's simple and builds upon events already happening. Take the top teams from each division (MLS, NASL and USL) and have them fight it out in a tournament. Not only will this expand upon the growing interest in the US Open Cup, but it will also help grow the sport across the country.

The great thing about this is that there are a number of ways to do it:

3. Hold it in January and February (warm cities)  

Among the many positives of having a huge, rich country is the varying climates. Preseason Cup tournaments are getting pretty big in recent years and outside of getting teams ready for the season they grow interest in the sport. I saw first hand how Orlando's Disney Cup helped grow interest in the sport in the city before they jumped to MLS. 

2. Hold it after the season ends

All three divisions of pro soccer in North America end in Autumn. Hold this competition in place of the current league playoffs. It would still include your best teams and would draw loads of interest from each league. I'd venture to say that USL and NASL interest would skyrocket in the first year. MLS would benefit because most of the teams their franchises would be playing would be in non-MLS cities. Everybody wins here. 

1. Spread it out over season   

Have it set up similarly to how Champions League is currently done. Qualification happens the previous season and games are played out over the course of the season. Each league could breathe a little and extend seasons without playoffs. It works even if they still want them because there isn't a whole lot going on for most teams during the year in MLS anyway. With rosters still at 28, you've also got reserve teams and affiliations of which to draw, not to mention academy sides. Playing the competition out over the season is my favorite because it gives fans something interesting to watch. It adds sweetener to the season, so to speak.

How many teams, single elimination, home and away legs, and so on. Lots of options. After messing around with things, I found that dropping teams into groups is the most exciting for me. It's also flexible in terms of holding it over a short time period in one city or having it play out over many months.

Here's what it would look like if you six from MLS and USL and 4 from the NASL based on current standings, separated by region.

Group	League	Region	Team	League Rank
A - EAST	USL	EAST	Rochester Rhinos	1
A - EAST	MLS	EAST	New York Red Bulls	1
A - EAST	NASL	EAST	Fort Lauderdale Strikers	2
A - EAST	USL	EAST	Charleston Battery	3

Group	League	Region	Team	League Rank
B - EAST	NASL	EAST	New York Cosmos	1
B - EAST	USL	EAST	Louisville City FC	2
B - EAST	MLS	EAST	D.C. United	2
B - EAST	MLS	EAST	Columbus Crew	3

Group	League	Region	Team	League Rank
A - WEST	USL	WEST	Orange County Blues	1
A - WEST	MLS	WEST	FC Dallas	1
A - WEST	NASL	WEST	Minnesota United	2
A - WEST	USL	WEST	Colorado Springs Switchbacks	3

Group	League	Region	Team	League Rank
B - WEST	NASL	WEST	Ottawa Fury	1
B - WEST	USL	WEST	Oklahoma City Energy	2
B - WEST	MLS	WEST	LA Galaxy	2
B - WEST	MLS	WEST	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	3

If you held this over the course of a season you could really let it breathe. Home / Away and take winners from each group into a playoff (along with awarding CONCACAF Champions League qualification in there).

A short and intense option would be great fun as well. End of season would be a blast. Each team playing the other once  - 3 games in 8 days, for example (Saturday, Wednesday, Saturday) and then take the group winners into a playoff.

For me, this competition would do wonders for the overall sport in the US in both interest and dollars. It would also separate it from the rest of the sports market in the US in a cool and creative way that soccer fans and casual fans alike would understand. New cities, small teams, increased intensity around matches. It all works for me.

PROMOTION AND RELEGATION CHALLENGE

A question of how to link the soccer pyramid in the United States has been bouncing around in my head for years. The answer I come to is usually the implementation of promotion and relegation across all levels starting at the bottom (leagues like the USASA, USL-PDL, NPSL and even college) and working your way up the divisions (regionally set up).

It would take a good bit of time to get it organized and stable, which would be good because it would allow new investors in MLS, USL and NASL time to make back their money - we are talking 5-10 years (this is 'Merica, we can do it it five). Those not making it back in that time frame, probably won't ever do so.

Many challenges await a US Soccer Federation that tries to better organize the pyramid. Topping the list is Major League Soccer's stance on promotion and relegation. They do not want it under any circumstances. Beyond that, the hurdle is the fact that each league is its own entity with their own set of revenue sharing, distribution and league entry qualifications.

Best way to think of it is that there are really only three fully pro clubs in North America... MLS FC, NASL SC and USL City (or what have you). Looking at it that way opens doors to solutions that might be able to solve a number of competition problems in the US.

MEANINGLESS REGULAR SEASON, POPULAR PLAYOFF?

Regular Season as a long qualification for playoffs is shared among the other two pro soccer divisions in the US as well. Details might be different but the competition winner across MLS, NASL and USL is the playoff winner.

The reasoning behind holding a playoff to determine a champion centers around other US sports, who all have some sort of playoffs. If you are reading this, then you likely are familiar with how each league works and you also likely know that the playoffs (even in college you have "March Madness" type tournaments to determine winners) draw increased interest from the country over their regular seasons.

Generally, it works like this...

1. Final (Super Bowl, Final, World Series)
2. Playoffs
3. Regular Season
4. Preseason

For MLS it works differently. No need for a list because there are so many different things going on during a soccer calendar year that the rhythm can't be compared to other domestic sports. And that's a good thing! It's why people enjoy the sport.

MLS treats it like a disease, however. Something they need to remedy.

They WANT the order listed one to four above instead of embracing the uniqueness of the sport. With summer friendlies, international friendlies and qualification, summer tournaments, the US Open Cup and more. It's great! yet MLS can't get it straight and want to shoehorn a wonky MLS team only playoff on during mostly bad weather and a time of year where their target audience is tuning out - and, again, it's comprised of teams that have already faced each other two OR three times. It is redundant.

For MLS, playoffs across the country generally see decreased interest by any metric (attendance, TV, social media activation, etc). In the past, you could point to the MLS Cup final as an event where more people tuned in but even there, interest spikes only slightly over a hyped up regular season game on ESPN or Fox Sports.

Playoffs were born out of challenges with geography when travel was more difficult. Teams, to this day, still play regionally most of the time to help negate cost and keep the interest of team performing badly - in that it's easier to swallow being only few spots out of 1st place in a division vs. being 15th (or whatever) out of 30 teams. Intellectually, this reasoning seems silly but there isn't a whole of critical thinking going on these days (why - a topic for another day).

All that leads to why we still see up to six divisions in a league. Things may be changing however, NBA and MLB have recently talked about whittling it down to just 2 conferences. Whether or not that happens is still to be determined but, it does feel as if it will happen sooner rather than later.

Heck, the NBA is already talking about having a cup competition.

GOTTA LINK IT

The United States Soccer federation has to figure out a meaningful way to get the pyramid working together. Not having it linked together alienates 99% of the people that participate in the most played sport in the United States. It's the people's game. It reaches all levels of society and should not be locked up by a handful of investors.

No single system is perfect, but I believe that doing everything you can in order to get each team talking is critically important for this country. Even small steps are important.

Having an inclusionary tournament builds on what the US Open Cup does so wonderfully. It will increase interest in the sport as well as investment, which, in turn, increases revenue that can be put back into the game.