Showing posts with label bundesliga. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bundesliga. Show all posts

Sunday, January 3, 2021

PL Wins Electoral College

What if Electoral Votes went to the league with the most interest in each state via Google Trends? 

Covid has forced leagues to get creative. From "Project Restart" in England to "MLS is Back," the desire to get games on TV has clearly been intense. And for good reason. I believe that 2020 will prove to be a pivotal year in the ever-shifting soccer interest in the United States. TV numbers show that people were clearly looking for entertainment outside of their normal routine.

So, here's a fun way to look at interest over the last year.

FIRST UP...

A 3 party election. These three leagues are generally seen as the most popular in the United States. The PL is growing at a quick rate. Just a couple years ago, Liga MX was on top in terms of interest as measured by Google (important).

Electoral Votes:
399: Premier League
139: Liga MX
0: MLS

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A 2 party election between MLS and the Bundesliga. MLS big, but if I'm a party pollster for either side, I'm looking at the 97 electoral votes are within a 2 pt margin (SD, WI, AL, MA, TX, NC, IN). If ESPN can get the Bundesliga off the ground, I think we might see this change soon.

Electoral Votes:
371: MLS
167: Bundesliga




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La Liga v MLS (0 states within a 3 pt margin). Landslide.

Electoral Votes:
503: La Liga
35: MLS







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Italy's Serie A vs MLS is a surprise, even with the battleground states removed, it's a clear Serie A victory.

Head to head...

Electoral Votes:
384: Serie A
132: MLS
22: 50/50



Wednesday, October 16, 2019

USMNT Lost to Canada, Too Much MLS

The US Men's National Team lost to Canada for the first time since 1985, 2-0 up at BMO Field in Toronto. The US had a total of 17 matches unbeaten, which I have listed below (because no one seems to).

02 Apr 1985 - Canada v USA - L - 2-0 International Friendly
04 Apr 1985 - USA v Canada - D - 1-1 International Friendly
05 Feb 1986 - USA v Canada - D - 0-0 Miami Cup
16 Mar 1991 - USA v Canada - W - 2-0 North American Championship
03 Sep 1992 - Canada v USA - W - 0-2 International Friendly
09 Oct 1992 - USA v Canada - D - 0-0 International Friendly
03 Mar 1993 - USA v Canada - D - 2-2 International Friendly
16 Mar 1997 - USA v Canada - W - 3-0 FIFA World Cup
09 Nov 1997 - Canada v USA - W - 0-3 FIFA World Cup
30 Jan 2002 - USA v Canada - W - 0-0 CONCACAF Gold Cup
18 Jan 2003 - USA v Canada - W - 4-0 International Friendly
09 Jul 2005 - USA v Canada - W - 2-0 CONCACAF Gold Cup
22 Jan 2006 - USA v Canada - D - 0-0 International Friendly
21 Jun 2007 - USA v Canada - W - 2-1 CONCACAF Gold Cup
07 Jun 2011 - USA v Canada - W - 2-0 CONCACAF Gold Cup
03 Jun 2012 - Canada v USA - D - 0-0 International Friendly
29 Jan 2013 - USA v Canada - D - 0-0 International Friendly
05 Feb 2016 - USA v Canada - W - 1-0 International Friendly
15 Oct 2019 - Canada v USA - L - 2-0 CONCACAF Nations League

There a couple of things that jump out at you when combing over the results.

1. Yesterday was only the 5th time that the US has played in Canada since 1985 (5/17=29% of the time). The previous 17 matches between the two nations saw the match played 9 times out of 17 (53% of the time). The difference is more or less do to MLS and building interest. There was a run of six straight in the US between 2001 and 2011, a decade where the US racked up wins.

2. The USA doesn't play Canada for World Cup Qualifying. For a weak region like CONCACAF, it seems a bit strange. All-time, Canada has an advantage over the US in WC Qualifiers. The US has 13 played,  4 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses against those guys up north, but the last time the two played to qualify was 1997. Again, weird, but likely due to MLS.

MLS MINUTES LAST NIGHT

Over the last few years, MLS has been bringing in the best players from all over CONCACAF. Canada has always been here, however. Even going back to the old NASL days.

So what did the game look like last night? Lots of MLS experienced players.

What I've done is simply look up how many minutes each player that was in the 18 has this year. I quartered MLS players to quickly simplify things as most leagues across the world are only 25% of the way through the season.

The point of this exercise was to quickly get to the heart of things. Was this an MLS v. MLS duel?


















Yes! It was an MLS duel. Something that sticks out first to me, when looking at the data this way, is the sheer number of leagues Canadian players play in. A total of 11, while we only see players from 5 different leagues for the USMNT. Maybe it shouldn't be all that surprising.

Also sticking out is how much MLS is on the bench for Gregg Berhalter's US team. It sort of speaks to the simplicity of scouting, but also to the preference based on marketing the league to non-MLS fans.

SOLUTIONS TO CATCHING... CANADA

US Players; England & Germany only
For me, this flyover look at where the two national team selections are playing tells an important story.

You need players fighting and scraping in uncomfortable situations. Simply put, it creates a better player. MLS has quality, but it is firmly 2nd tier, possibly 3rd. Your best players cannot be playing in a low impact, comfortable situation and expect to compete with players humping it every day in Belgium, Scotland, Chile, Norway, Mexico. It's great that the US is calling up players in England and Germany, but these are culturally similar countries that the pay to play youth model often treats like a teen going to college. Bundesliga being that rich kid prestigious university up north. England, a solid State school.

Canada is calling up its best players, regardless of league. The US team is calling marketable MLS players and sprinkling in a handful of others. Does that make sense? In order for the US to get back to being best in class in CONCACAF, they need to undo the MLS shackles.

Take a look at a "what if" situation. What if Gregg Berhalter only called in players in Germany and England - what would that look like? It looks like they would stomp the mix-matched MLS heavy team Berhalter is trying to put together.

Wood - Sargent - Shelton
Pulisic - McKennie - Gooch
Robinson - Brooks - Miazga - Yedlin
Steffen

The problem emerging is that the USMNT has gone from calling in plucky over-performing MLS guys to practically mandating it after the hire of Gregg Berhalter. The players being selected simply do not have what it takes. A random selection of the 250+ guys playing outside MLS would yield better results.

Thursday, January 11, 2018

US Players Abroad, Rating


Here's a quick look at US born players abroad in some of the top leagues in Europe, right now. The way I ranked the players was based simply on four criteria on a 10 pt scale (10 best-7-5-3-0 lowest):

1. Strength of League
2. Man of the Match (MotM)
3. WhoScored Rating
4. % Mins played (possible)

(ooo) is transfer value per TransferMarkt.co.uk, in thousands.

Age(OOO)NameLeagueClubMotMRating%minsHB
1940,500Christian PulisicBundesligaBorussia Dortmund27.1884%100
34225Josh WicksAllsvenskanSirius26.7480%75
271,350Alfredo Morales2. BundesligaIngolstadt07.0379%68
273,150Timothy ChandlerBundesligaEintracht Frankfurt16.8558%68
222,700Matt MiazgaEredivisieVitesse16.7881%68
2412,600John BrooksBundesligaWolfsburg07.2240%63
253,150Bobby WoodBundesligaHamburger SV16.5162%63
20450Cameron Carter-VickersChampionshipSheffield United16.7560%60
301,800Tim ReamChampionshipFulham06.8292%55
244,500DeAndre YedlinPremier LeagueNewcastle United06.7678%55
322,700Geoff CameronPremier LeagueStoke City06.6757%55
23450Brendan Hines IkeAllsvenskanÖrebro06.8795%50
291,580Eric LichajChampionshipNottingham Forest06.7358%48
26450Terrence Boyd2. BundesligaDarmstadt 9816.4525%45
194,050Weston McKennieBundesligaSchalke 0406.4347%45
281,800Danny WilliamsPremier LeagueHuddersfield Town06.3246%45
28270Andrew Wooten2. BundesligaSandhausen07.212%43
22630Julian Green2. BundesligaGreuther Fürth06.6849%43
304,500Fabian JohnsonBundesligaBorussia M'gladbach06.5130%40
21450Shaq MooreLa LigaLevente6.4926%40
33450Caleb StankoBundesligaFreiburg06.2112%40
24270Jerome Kiesewetter2. BundesligaFortuna Düsseldorf06.811%38
2222Romain GallAllsvenskanGIF Sundsvall06.5853%38
19450Haji Wright2. BundesligaSandhausen06.3230%38
22675Lynden GoochChampionshipSunderland06.2429%33
20315Keaton ParksPrimeira LigaBenfica06.163%33
27900Aron JóhannssonBundesligaWerder Bremen05.990%33
19Luca de la TorreChampionshipFulham06.022%25
22900Emmerson HyndmanPremier LeagueAFC Bournemouth25
20135Jonathan KlinsmannBundesligaHertha BSC25
1823Brian ScottBundesligaKöln25
20Kyle ScottPremier LeagueChelsea25
22225Desevio PayneEredivisieExcelsior06.396%20
24225Shane O'NeillEredivisieExcelsior18
2395Mael Corboz2. BundesligaMSV Duisburg18
1990Orrin McKinze Gaines2. BundesligaDarmstadt 9818
29360Conor O'BrienEliteserienStart13
21270Rubio RubinEliteserienStabæk13
29113Andrew StadlerAllsvenskanDalkurd13
2690Alexander Ray De JohnAllsvenskanDalkurd13
2890Stefan AntonijevicEliteserienLillestrøm13

I created a little rating system to help me sort who is playing well and try to find out any surprises and not so much surprises. In no particular order:

1. Josh Wicks, 34, GK, Sirius in Allsvenskan
Some might remember Wicks from his time in MLS in 2009. He got into a fight with teammate Marc Burch in a league match and also two foot stomped Fredy Montero (Seattle) in a US Open Cup game. He wasn't seen again in MLS and moved to Europe right after. He's been bouncing around Nordic leagues since. Having a good year this year. His WhoScored Rating of 6.74 (top 30%-ish of all players in the league). He may be crazy but had a good 2017.

2. Christian Pulisic, 19, Attacking Mid (L/R), Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga
Pulisic has shot up to be possibly the best player the US has ever had. Grew up in Pennsylvania but moved to Germany around age 16. At 19 now and, according to TransferMarkt, worth over $40 million. Both American owned Manchester United and Liverpool want him so that fee could easily jump. 3 goals and an assist in 1300 minutes this year, with an astonishing rating of 7.18 which easily puts in the top 50 players in the league.

3. The Central Defenders
Matt Miazga (22), John Brooks (24) and Cameron Carter-Vickers (20). All under 25, all player will in their respective leagues so far this year. Brooks' (Wolfsburg) 7.22 rating and pass success rate of 85% is best in class, but his minutes sit less than 700 thus far.

4. Yedlin, Tops in Prem
DeAndre (24, Newcastle) took a chance heading over to the Premier League. Signed with Tottenham, loaned to Sunderland but now found his home in Newcastle. He's seen the dark side of relegation and the joy of promotion. I like his story. Like it or not, he's the only player in the regular starting eleven the US has right now, playing in 78% of possible minutes. His success has got his transfer fee close to $5 million.