Saturday, September 8, 2012

Updated HB Player Score, Crew

The metric I like to track is points earned per game + average goal difference when a player starts. I call it the Helltown Beer Player Score.
The chart above is a visualization of the score. I use a 5 games started minimum so some players are not on the chart. If you would like to see the data you can go here.

Federico Higuain passed the 5 game started mark last week. He is averaging 2.40 Points per Game (1st) and a +0.40 (3rd) average Goal Difference.

+0.80 : Cole Grossman
+0.60 : Carlos Mendes
+0.40 : F. Higuain
+0.38 : Danny O'Rourke

Higuain also carries the Best Goals For average and Worst Goals Against. Here are the players with the highest Goals For per start.

2.00 : F. Higuain
1.60 : C. Grossman
1.60 : C. Mendes
1.50 : Dilly Duka

You'll notice it looks similar to the players with best avg GD. That is in large part due to the Columbus Crew's consistency in defense game in, game out all year. Where things change is in average Goals Against per start.

1.60 : F. Higuain (5)
1.42 : Chad Marshall (19)
1.40 : Bernardo Anor (5)
1.36 : Jairo Arrieta (11)

I felt it important to call out number of games started here (on the right in parentheses) for a couple reasons. The team GA average is 1.19 so for any player (especially a defensive one) as far out of control as he is at 19 starts is not good. Marshall has started 3 shutout games in his 19 starts. Without him in the starting line up the team had 4 shutouts in 8 games.

As a team, after shutting out 6 opponents in their first 15 games the Crew haven't blanked anyone in there last 9.

Looking at Points Earned per Game is about as true and clean a metric you can track, especially in Major League Soccer where lineups rotate quite a bit. Below are the players getting the best results. I'm going to move the minimum to 10 games, which makes these guys even more key to getting a positive result:

2.10 : C. Mendes (10)
1.92 : D. Duka (12)
1.85 : D. O'Rourke (13)
1.82 : J. Arrieta (11)
1.65 : Josh Williams (20)

Team average right now is 1.56. Here are the folks significantly enough south of that:

1.08 : Tony Tchani (12)
1.33 : Nemanja Vukovic (12)
1.37 : Milovan Mirosevic (19)
1.42 : Chad Marshall (19)

If you take a step back and look at the season so far you see a rough early start (lots of player rotation in starting lineup) - then a mid part of the season where defending was excellent and results started to improve even without key players, to now... which is a post a traumatic event with a new expensive and productive signing.

If the Crew are to have a shot at making more noise late on this season and hopefully carry it into next, they need to take the defending from the middle part of the year with and meld it with smarter attacking play.

I think with some better play in the defensive midfield and continued offensive production up top this Crew team will have continued success over the final seven games.

No comments: