2019 MLS Prediction Recap

Turns out my 2019 predictions were very good. In fact, 2nd best in comparison to six pundits over at MLS HQ and two others outside MLS.

Last year around this time I started diving into Eastern Conference MLS teams. The dive was pretty deep. If you are on the desktop version of this site, you will find them in the January 2019 dropdown on the right. The posts are titled "Preseason Look..."

What I ended up using was a combination of WhoScored, (the always excellent) Football Manager player ratings, and EA's FIFA 19 player ratings. From there, I dug into what Transfer Market had to say about individual player values (although, I did not take that into consideration with my final rank last year. Just used as a sanity check).

Below are how the predictions panned out. On the left is final Conf position - to the right of the list of teams are were everyone thought teams would finish.

	Team	Baer	Carr	Davies	Doyle	Warshaw	Wiebe	LJ
1	NYCFC	7	6	7	8	8	5	2
2	Atlanta United	1	2	1	2	1	1	3
3	Philadelphia Union	4	3	3	5	4	7	9
4	Toronto FC	6	8	5	9	6	9	1
5	D.C. United	5	4	4	3	2	3	4
6	New York Red Bulls	3	1	2	1	3	2	5
7	New England Revolution	11	11	6	10	12	10	8
8	Chicago Fire	8	10	11	6	5	8	11
9	Montreal Impact	10	9	10	4	9	4	6
10	Columbus Crew SC	2	5	8	7	7	6	7
11	Orlando City SC	9	12	9	12	11	11	12
12	FC Cincinnati	12	7	12	11	10	12	10

Rank: Average position places off:

Avg Off	Name
1.8	Davies
2.1	Crowd
2.2	LJ
2.3	Baer
2.5	Warshaw
2.7	Carr
2.7	Wiebe
3.0	Doyle

Rank: Median position places off:

Median Off	Name
1.0	Davies
1.5	LJ
1.5	Baer
1.8	Crowd
2.5	Warshaw
2.5	Doyle
3.0	Carr
3.5	Wiebe

Rank: Within one spot on the table:

Within 1	Name
7	Davies
6	LJ
5	Baer
5	Carr
5	Crowd
4	Warshaw
4	Wiebe
3	Doyle

Rank: Way off - teams >5 spots off:

Way Off	Name
1	Davies
1	LJ
1	Crowd
2	Warshaw
2	Wiebe
4	Baer
4	Carr
4	Doyle

I'm pretty happy with where I finished, which was basically second to Charlie Davies (congrats buddy). I'm particularly happy with only having one team way off on my table. It was Philly. Their team was being built differently, so it was hard to get my hands around them.

The other one I wish I had back was Columbus. I knew that Zach Steffen was leaving in the summer, I should have factored that in somehow.

Lastly, I finished fiddling with my team rankings around the end of January. I should have probably waited till late Feb. 

Thanks for reading. If you have any questions or comments, let me know at --

lwjohnson654@yahoo.com

Ball-Winning Distributors, USL Championship

The USL Championship makes available Opta data for their regular season as well as playoffs. Each year I enjoy mining all that information for good players. This year is no different.

Below are what I'm calling "ball-winning distributors." Meaning; they will win the ball and keep the ball in your possession (good passers). You'll find mostly defensive mid, central mid and a backline player or two.

These are very active players, but don't necessarily involve themselves directly in the attack. I've included their strengths (near or at the top in the USL).

BALL-WINNING DISTRIBUTOR
Name	Age	2019 Team	Strength 1	Strength 2	Strength 3
Boluwatife Akinyode	24	NASHVILLE SC	Tackles Won	Pass in Opp Half	Long Pass
Kevan George	29	CHARLOTTE	Interceptions	Pass in Opp Half	All-round Defending
Ebenezer Ackon	23	SAN ANTONIO FC	All-round Passing	All-round Defending	Duels Won
Sam Hamilton	23	NEW MEXICO UNITED	General Passing	General Defending
Wesly Decas	19	ATLANTA UNITED 2	General Passing	General Defending
Kevin Partida	23	RENO 1868 FC	Tackles Won	All-round Passing	Pass in Opp Half
George Campbell	17	ATLANTA UNITED 2	General Defending	General Passing
Kevon Lambert	21	PHOENIX RISING FC	Tackles Won	All-round Defending	General Passing

What I considered:

PASSING ACTIVITY:
1. Overall Passing %
2. Passing % the Opponents Half
3. Long Pass %
4. Total Passes

DEFENSIVE ACTIVITY:
1. Interceptions per 90
2. Tackles Won per 90
3. All Duels Won per 90
4. Ariel Duels Won per 90
5. Total Activity (total of these categories)

Once I had a rank on all 1047 USL players, I took the average of both Passing and Defensive Activity to pull out the top players above. Players below 900 mins were not considered. More notes on each player:

Name	Age	POS	Value	Highest Level	Notes
Boluwatife Akinyode	25	DM	228k	NASL	Nomad, recently transferred to Birmingham
Kevan George	29	DM	200k	MLS	Established Trinidad International
Ebenezer Ackon	23	LB	0k	USLC	Ghanaian, in US via College
Sam Hamilton	23	DM	171k	MLS	Colorado Rapids Academy Player
Wesly Decas	20	CB	171k	Liga NOS	Honduras U20 Player
Kevin Partida	24	CM	143k	MLS	Jumps between Reno FC and MLS Quakes
George Campbell	18	CB	171k	USLC	Atlanta United Academy Player
Kevon Lambert	22	CM	257k	USLC	Jamaica Senior Team Player

Each one of these players is worth a look at the MLS level. Beyond that, perhaps Decas, Campell, and Lambert are worth bringing in for a closer evaluation outside MLS.

More ball-winning passers with a good year, if you happen to be shopper:

Name	Age	POS	2019 USL Team
Wal Fall	27	CM	OTTAWA FURY FC
Napo Matsoso	24	CM	LOUISVILLE CITY FC
Kai Greene	25	RB	SAN ANTONIO FC
Mitchell Osmond	24	CB	INDY ELEVEN
Paco Craig	25	CB	LOUISVILLE CITY FC
A.J. Cochran	26	CB	PHOENIX RISING FC
Joseph Farrell	24	CB	PHOENIX RISING FC
Ray Saari	25	DM	SACRAMENTO REPUBLIC FC
Bryam Rebellón	27	RB	EL PASO LOCOMOTIVE FC
Michael Gallagher	24	CB	LA GALAXY II
Ricardo Avila	21	DM	REAL MONARCHS SLC
Saalih Muhammad	22	AM	NEW MEXICO UNITED
Alexsander Andrade	22	DM	SWOPE PARK RANGERS
Tah Anunga	23	CM	CHARLESTON BATTERY
Logan Gdula	23	CB	HARTFORD ATHLETIC
Jean-Christophe Koffi	21	CM	NEW YORK RED BULLS II
Kenneth Tribbett	27	CB	NASHVILLE SC
Walker Hume	25	CB	ORANGE COUNTY SC
Eryk Williamson	22	CM	PORTLAND TIMBERS 14