Slovenia: History Made!

19 nations of the 74 (total teams ever qualifying) have never won a single game in the WC (a quarter of all teams). There have been 12 teams (out of 74) in World Cup history to have never won or even tied a game. That's 17% of all nations that have ever made it to the WC. Make no mistake. This is a huge win for Slovenia, a nation of little more then 2 million (formally part of Yugoslavia till 1991).

The other teams in that 17% (no wins or ties) playing this year happen to be Greece and New Zealand.

So, THE game for the US turns out to be against Slovenia not Algeria as I expected in my previous post.

Groups A and B (and C)

Game one in the Group Stage is complete for A and B. ESPN and ABC were throwing around a lot of stats today about Game one winners advancing past the GS about 86% of the time and losers only 8% of the time. It can be frustrating when this happens. No time frame was mentioned or number of games studied nor was anything said about teams that draw in the first game. Bottom line; throw that stuff out.

Out of the two groups and the games this weekend I think I was surprised the most with the Mexico South Africa draw. With the difficulty of the group the numbers say that South Africa should have won that game. I wasn't able to see the game but from what I've read it seems that SA should have gotten 3 pts out of it. I am very surprised with the result, especially when you consider the host nation always makes it out of the group. That said, the goalless draw between France and Uruguay helped save SA chances. Had 3 pts been awarded SA would have a mountain to climb.

Argentina played extremely well today in Group B and proved themselves to be in a completely different league then Nigeria, South Korea and Greece. In fact. I don't know what league Greece is playing in. The very much lived up to their 0-0-3 WC record. They also kept the zero WC goals streak going. The only thing they did do was keep Korea from scoring 3 goals against them (their average margin of loss). I have picked Nigeria to advance with Argentina. I wasn't able to see enough from Nigeria to tell how well they will play against Korea, but that will be the critical game for both of them.

Now... the US. I'm exhausted after the game. It was one of the most exciting events I've ever seen on TV. From the England side it was not surprising the game ended in a 1-1 draw. What was surprising is that the US kept England out of the net. I felt like England played deep in the US side in the second half and clearly showed they had more talent. But the US did what it had to do. Helped out by a mistake in goal.

I guess what I'm saying is that the England draw was not a shocker, but the US to draw against England is a pretty big deal.

I'm very much looking forward to the Algeria v. Slovenia game tomorrow. Algeria should get out of there with 3 pts. Putting them in charge of the group and making that game against the US THE game of the tournament.

So on to the important things... how was Claddagh today? Great, rabidly pro American and each English fan that entered was promptly boooed and got a fierce USA chant. We witnessed more then one couple boooed out of the pub. I watched most of the Argentina v Nigeria game there then came back to watch England play well but tie --- yet again.

There has not been any statistical anomalies in the first five games. The US only allowing one goal is the only thing remotely out of the norm, but not anomalous.

Oh, It's ON

"You may be confusing the world of football with the IMF or the World Bank, the U.S., like Germany or China, has as much power as San Marino, Vanuatu or Belize."

- Michel Platini, FIFA Executive

Now, liking soccer in the US is a complex thing. Here in Ohio is it still sort of counter-culture. You may catch some of the cool kids talking about it over in the corner, or Dad who just started coaching youth soccer get interested. Other parts of the country get more into it. I know Northern Virginia is in. There always seems to be a player or two from the area on the national team. This year is Clarence E. Goodson IV (good VA name there). There are a few others from the surrounding area as well (Maryland). Anyway. I understand Mr. Michel Platini's comment above, it is very idealistic and the World Cup has proven that money is not the determining voice behind where the games are played... but man, watch out saying stuff like that.

Turns out Americans are making this year's WC happen. Snapping up more tickets then any other nation. As a side note... The only WC ever to sell out every game during the WC was when it was held in America. And as another side note, Mr. Platini, was it not FIFA that asked for volunteers to host this years WC if South Africa could not? and whoooom shall I say stepped up to volunteer? The US. Say what you will about the US. We know how to host a large event (I'm looking at you Canada, with a stink eye).

Man, I'm worked up now on the eve of the show. Nationality is skewing my remedial statistical math of who will win now. And just to tweak it a little more I was on a call with our Netherlands leadership team over there today at work... I brought up the WC (much to the blank faces of my co-workers) with them. I like those folks out there but they were so dismissive of any comment us Americans said about the topic. Rightly so, when looking at the numbers and history. But the blood is a boiling.

Arrrggghhh! Why does the US have to play England in the opener. I feel like I'm routing against myself in this game. Count to 3, count to 3.

Okay.

The other group I haven't mentioned. Netherlands Group E:

9: Netherlands
9: Denmark
20: Cameroon
22: Japan

The top two here have a clear advantage. In none of my six KPIs do they fall past 2nd place. Denmark seems to play fast scoring 1.85 goals a game. Good for 4th best in WC history (13 games played). They allow 1.38, which is better then the average and .12 better then the mean. Goals against is a definite KPI. The best teams are at that top of that list. England, Italy, Brazil... In that order.

You know who is number 4?

Honduras.

My team.

Now if they could just get that offense going. No team in the bottom 50 percentile of goals against has ever won the WC. So, just looking at that, Denmark is in the running to have a good WC. The Netherlands has got a better history of preventing goals (1.06), which really plays to their advantage. But they tie more often. Not enough goal scoring. That said. Get NL out of the GS and I think they will make some noise.

Part of me hopes they play the US. Looking at the brackets... hmmm, it may have to be in the final. Bring it.

Tomorrow is the big day. Mexico (of whom, I'm pulling for) is opening up with South Africa. I'm hoping this sets the tone for the WC. A win by Mexico will send my data reeling. In a good way. Another game that will be making a lot of noise with only me will be the Greece v. South Korea game. Greece has a chance to win it's first ever WC match.. History is being made here. I can't wait.

Group B:

6: Argentina
12: Nigeria
18: Korea Republic
24: Greece

World Cup Past

Saved newspaper clippings from the last World Cup. Yeah, I saved them. Just as Unbelieveable by EMF from Schubert Dip album is saved on my computer. One quick note, Brian McBride was a Columbus Crew player back in 2006. Their training facility is right near where I work in nowhere Obetz, Ohio. He would show up at a dive bar called Lovell's where all us burnt out MFG central Ohio roughians would go for a drink after work. Great dude. Tanqueray!
Next up to get done is the complete list of Group winners based on the principles of Six Sigma and the Kaizen Way. Maybe even the Ishikawa diagram or Six Pack dump to show normal processes. Green Belt certification! Tools to a more productive peoples! and Continuous Improvement! Tanqueray!

Group D:
6: Germany
14: Serbia
16: Ghana
24: Austrailia

Based on my six Key Performance Indicators. Ghana has a chance to advance but the mountain seems to high (statistically speaking). Their defense will do them in against the top two in the group, but will hold Australia head to head. Australia got a bad draw this year.

England Warm up

Please forgive the music. Or, maybe not. It is possibly fitting for this warm up. I choose this one over the nice, pretty and clean FA HD version because, well it is a warm up and because it shows how fired up Rooney is. Around 1:30 into the video. Perfectly timed with RULE BRITANNIA! That's what I'm looking for. Heh Heh.

---------->Video Pulled<----------------------------

(uh, note by the writer here... the video was taken down. Enjoy the link to the fancy pants FA video.)

My Favored Team & The Group of Death

Honduras and their Group H.

H is for Honduras.

The Group:
- Spain
- Honduras
- Chile
- Switzerland

The secret way I went about looking at Group winners and runners up was to pick out efficiencies because of the variance in the number of World Cup appearances from team to team. So here is what I went with:

Wins per WC
Win+Tie per WC
Pts p/Game (3 for win, 1 for tie)
Goals p/Game
Goals Against p/Game
Margin of Victory

I ranked each team in the group 1-4 in each area then tallied up the totals. Lowest score a team could get is 6 (best in each category). Worst score possible is 24 (ranked fourth in each of the six categories). The two teams with the lowest score out of my six efficiency ratings moves past the Group stage to the Round of 16.

Group H to me is the so called Group of Death. Not because all the teams are from traditional powers, but because the balance between Honduras, Chile, and Switzerland. Here is how my efficiencies (reminder: each of my six cat ranked 1 to 4 then aggregate) came out for Group H:

7: Spain
17: Honduras
18: Chile
18: Switzerland

The standard deviation there is 5.35, lower then any other grouping. Meaning; in the world of "what you do when you get to the WC"... the most competitive.

There were two groups that went 1 through 4 in each of my categories. What this means is that there should be clear cut Winner and Runner up out of the GS:

Group B:
6: Argentina
12: Nigeria
18: Korea Republic
24: Greece

Group F:
6: Italy
12: Slovakia
18: Paraguay
24: New Zealand

Looking at the United States chances in Group C using this same ranking system, Algeria has the upper hand, even without the continental endorphin boost.

Group C:
6: England
13: Algeria
17: USA
24: Slovenia

Vuvuzela

That trumpet buzz you hear during games played south of the equator. After much protesting, the Vuvuzela has been allowed at this years WC. Hardened soccer fans claim they will not much mind the noise emitted from these awful devices. They are a custom to many annoying chants, bells, horns, rattlers things at games but to me the vuvuzela is terribly annoying above and beyond the other stuff. FIFA looked into banning them last year but the South Africans claimed that it was an important part of their fan culture and history. After all soccer games seem to be a celebration.

I sat down this morning to watch the US / Australia game this morning at my local Irish pub. Man, am I ready for the WC this year. Irish Coffee, good company, good stuff. I left the pub shortly after the first half of this friendly and turned on the game here at home. I had to turn it down because of the vuvuzela noise. A note to myself was made.

The vuvu is here to stay, I'll get over it. Hello Claddagh Irish Pub.

World Cup: The Tie

I'm looking through the groupings and trying to determine a valuable stat to hold on to. I've mentioned a couple of times that location is key. It'll be very interesting to see if South Africa makes it out of the Group Stage (GS).

Ties, draws or whatever you want to call them, are extremely important in the GS. The teams that have won the most... tie the most (although the numbers do not coincide). Germany has the most draws with 19. But, alas my friend. We are remedial statisticians here at Helltown! I need at least 20 points of data and percentages tell the better story.

Honduras has the highest tie % but they have only played 3 WC games, man. We have to dig deeper. Of the teams that have played over 20 games; England is the King of the draw. Doing so in almost half of all their GS games. 47% to be exact. WHO, I say, WHOM doth tie the least with over 20 games? Well the United States. We are going to win that sucker or lose it, fool. I like that stat. Very American. Only 12% of the time will the US tie in the GS. Portugal is the same way. Yet even less at 9% (with 19 games played).

Of the WC winners Brazil does tie the least amount of times. Italy, the team that has won four, draws almost 40% of the time, one of the highest percentages. Yet, still below England. Which, If I've learnt anything here today, helps me understand why someone like Rooney becomes a godlike figure. England has been searching for a striker to score two goals in a critical game for a hundred years.

So, what am I getting at with all this tie nonsense? Well, I thought it would mean something, but it doesn't. That happens I guess.

World Cup: USA USA USA

The United States is 6-3-16 overall in the WC. Of all the teams that have 20+ WC games entering this years tournament the US has the 2nd to worst winning %. 3rd worst out of all teams that have ever made it in over 20 games. Our national WC history is most similar to Bugaria (did not qualify this year). Their record: 3-8-15.

In looking over the teams here I see that CONCACAF teams do not fair well. Mexico has always been the powerhouse in the CONCACAF and has made it out of the Group Stage in the last four WCs, loosing in the round of 16 each time though. The only times they have made it past the R16 was the two times the WC was played on their soil. The US has put together a string of WCs as Mexico has. They finished in the Quarter Finals 8 years ago and made it to the R16 on US soil in 1994. You could deduce from this two things:

1. the CONCACAF has gotten better.
2. the US has gotten better at qualifying.

Honduras is the other team from the league this year to make it in. The last time they made it in was 1978. I'm pulling for them. I'll write more on them later.

CONCACAF is made up by 40 teams. 30 of which are small islands in the Caribbean. In all of WC history only once has a team made it past the QF. Only four times has a team made it past the R16. US and Mexico handling all that. Best result was US in 1930. 3rd place.

The US Soccer team this year is in a tough spot in regards to grouping. England, Slovenia, and finally Algeria.

Had this World cup been played anywhere else in the world I think it would have been England and the US making it out of the group. But not this year, not in South Africa. I've already talked about the most critical stat about the WC. Over 1/3 of host countries win. While Africa itself may not be considered a nation as a whole, Algeria is still on the continent and teams playing on their own continent do end up with better results.

The US will lose the game with England. Dare I say "brutalized" by them. Given the location of the games (I'd venture to say that no American player has ever stepped foot in South Africa, let alone played a game there) and the strength of England's defense, and the very pro-England crowd in attendance... well, I'm hoping for the best. This is one of those games for England where they can cut loose. They don't get many of those. Truely, I say to you... If the US were to win it would be historic.

I do think the US will win against Slovenia but the next game against Algeria will be critical and I don't think we will pull that one out. Believe it or not Algeria has a couple WCs under their belt. The have won 2 lost 3 with one draw. In those 6 games they lost by an average of .7 pts. The US looses by an average of one goal. Again, I think local will be playing a big part in this game. It will be the game of the WC for the US.

As much as I may not like it: Algeria and England will advance out of this group.