Monday, August 10, 2015

Metropolitan Division: New Jersey Devils

This is a series previewing the Metropolitan Division of the NHL. Next up: the New Jersey Devils.


NJ Devils GM Ray Shero
The 2014-15 NHL season was one the Devils would rather forget. They sputtered out of the gate and never recovered, leading to the firing of head coach Peter DeBoer the day after Christmas.

Following the "three heads are better than one" philosophy, GM Lou Lamoriello stepped out of the front office and joined Scott Stevens (DeBoer's assistant coach) and Adam Oates behind the bench. The Devils went on to finish 20 points out of a playoff position and closed out the season with just one win over their final 11 games.

On May 4, Lou Lamoriello stepped down as the team's President and general Manager. That same day, the Devils hired former Pittsburgh Penguins GM Ray Shero to fill the role of GM for the Devils. Less than a month later, Shero hired John Hynes away from the Penguins organization to be the new bench boss in New Jersey. In five seasons as head coach of the AHL Wilkes Barre/Scranton Penguins, he had a record of 231-126-27. At 40 years of age, Hynes is the youngest coach in the NHL.

The Devils have many issues that need addressed, foremost of which is a lack of scoring. They finished last season with and average of just 2.15 goals per game, ranking in the bottom of the league. While there was little off-season movement to bolster the roster, the team has a group of young defensemen that are expected to help. Eric Gelinas, Adam Larsson, Jon Merrill, John Moore and Damon Severson are all under the age of 25. Last month, Larsson signed a six-year, $25M extension with the team.

New Jersey has the lowest salary-cap hit of any team in the league, sitting just $4.5M above the cap-floor. With $14M to spend, there are free agent players this summer that are silently screaming "show me the money...", hoping the team will part with some of their cash reserves.

NJ Devils head coach John Hynes
The biggest acquisition for the Devils was trading draft picks (2nd, 3rd round picks in 2015 draft) with the Anaheim Ducks for 24 year-old forward Kyle Palmieri. In 57 games with Ducks last season, he went 14-15-29.

Between the pipes, the Devils have one of the league's best goaltenders in Cory Schneider. He signed a seven-year, $42M extension with the team last summer and posted .925 save percentage and 2.26 goals against average, 26-31-9 in 69 games. Backing up Schneider is Keith Kinkaid, who signed a two-year, $1.45M extension in April. In 19 games for the Devils last season, Kinkaid had a .915 save percentage and a 2.59 goals against average, going 6-5-4.

These inauspicious moves could very well mark the precursor to a long-overdue rebuild for the Devils. But, they still need to address their scoring woes if they hope to return to the playoffs.


Sunday, August 9, 2015

[PODCAST] Red Cards in Helltown: Season 2, Episode 12



Very special guest Chris Doran (Crew SC Match Day Host at Time Warner Cable Sports Channel Ohio) joins podcast host Rick Gethin and analysts David Burgin and Larry Johnson. Great show this week. As always - we record one hour, non-stop. It's sort of like playing Scrabble the old school way. Hope you enjoy and thanks for listening!

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01:25 - HEADLINES
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► Introduction of Chris Doran
► Barclays Premier League opening weekend
► AFC Bournemouth's first year ever in the PL (125 yrs)
► Other promotion sides - Watford FC, Norwich City
► Bundesliga about to kick off on Fox Sports 1
► MLS Transfer window, Chris gives his thoughts
► LA a winner, Crew SC as well
► Toronto, Montreal, Sporting rising

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13:35 - COLUMBUS CREW SC NEWS AND NOTES
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► Going back for a minute to the Orlando City match
► Revisiting Berhalter's decision not to address team, impact this week
► Kristinn Steindórsson start
► Thoughts on Justin Meram
► "What's going on with Emanuel Pogatetz?"
► Great discussion on the Crew backline and system
► ...more awesome discussion
► The role Gaston Sauro fills
► New additions

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35:50 - GENERAL DISCUSSION
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► Looking over next four for Crew SC
► Will it be different for the playoffs this year for the Crew
► Number of 6 pt games remaining is key, Doran's piece LINK
► DC United, 1 shot, 1 goal
► A look at the top of the table
► Playoff format, takes different approach
► Speed in the central defense

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49:25 - QUICK HIT, WRAP UP
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► Wraparound - balance between advertising / sponsorship and the sport
► Level / quality of play in MLS
► MLS being shaped by culture, not basing decisions based on long history
► Is there room for growth for foreign leagues in USA


Thank you again Chris Doran for joining the show!

Be sure to visit http://www.chrisdoran18.com/

Questions, comments - email me at ljohnson@helltownbeer.com


Saturday, August 8, 2015

F1 Summer Hiatus in full-swing

All of the F1 factory doors are locked-up tight
with team personnel on holiday.
We're halfway through the F1 summer break, where the teams close the doors to their factories and everyone scatters to the four corners of the globe for a well-deserved holiday.

Next season, they might have as few as two weeks for the summer break, due to 21 races being on the calendar for 2016. Thus, next season will be the busiest in the 66 year history of F1.

Team managers met with the FIA's Charlie Whiting during the Hungarian Grand Prix weekend. They would like to see the provisional calendar rearranged versus trying to fit a factory shutdown and holiday for team personnel into a two-week break.

Before the addition of the F1 race in Baku, Azerbaijan (European Grand Prix), F1 had a built-in break of three free weekends between the Hungarian Grand Prix in July and the Belgian Grand Prix in August. During this break, even the computer servers have to be switched off during the mandatory two-week shutdown. This allows both race team and factory personnel to enjoy a summer holiday.

Next year, however, the provisional race schedule allows for only two free weekends during the summer break. While this may seem to be a trivial matter to many Americans, with the global nature of F1, the rigors of travel and the European tradition of summer holiday, that extra free weekend is essential.

Consequently, some team principals have now asked Bernie Ecclestone to adjust the 2016 provisional calendar.

Recently, Claire Williams (Williams Racing) told F1 journalist Adam Cooper, "From a Williams perspective, the factory shutdown is important. The calendar is long and it's arduous, and people put their blood, sweat and tears into going racing, and they sacrifice a lot to do that. Those two weeks, regardless of anything else, allows them time with their families, to have a bit of a normal life."

Per Adam Cooper, Ecclestone said he does not anticipate any changes.

Williams Racing currently sits third in Constructors points (151 pts),
behind Mercedes AMG (383 pts) and Ferrari (236 pts).
(Image courtesy F1)
With two weeks remaining until the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa-Francorchamps (August 23), it remains to be seen if Renault will buyout the Lotus F1 team (they use Renault engines), as they are in the midst of making the decision to form a factory works team. Renault is unsure at this stage exactly how much money they want to invest in this venture. Renault has had some issues in recent years with the reliability and/or power of the engines it supplies to teams, as evidenced by the rift between the French automaker and Red Bull racing.

Lotus F1 driver Romain Grosjean welcomes Renault buying-out the Lotus F1 team, because that would mean more investment in the team, leading to a more competitive car on the track. He told ESPN UK, "The development hasn't been as good as we've wanted (this year), but it's not down to people or brainpower because we have a lot of good ideas in the pipeline."

Could Lotus F1 become a Renault factory works team?
(Image courtesy of F1)
"The CFD, wind-tunnel and design office is working very well," Grosjean said, "but at the moment, we can't bring it on track. On the other hand, when you are thinking about selling the team, you will not continue to put money in at one stage because afterwards it's all lost."

Lotus F1 (owned by Genii Capital) has had some financial issues in regards to its debt to shareholders in the Enstone-based team and currently sit in 6th place in the Constructors Championship (35 pts). Genii Capital bought a majority stake in the team from Renault in 2009 and purchased the remaining 25 percent Renault stake at the end of 2010. They rebranded it as the Lotus F1 team in 2012. Selling the team back to Renault would pave the way for the venture-capitalist's exit from F1.


Thursday, August 6, 2015

Crew SC Summer Makeover

Summer Activity
It's been one of the busier summer transaction windows in recent memory for Columbus. Along with the winter signing Cedrick Mabwati joining the team from his loan stint overseas, the team added two more likely starters in Harrison Afful at RB and Gaston Sauro at CB. Combine this with the addition of Jack McInerney and you have a team that has added four players to the game day 18 - with three of them probable starters.

[The official site for the team did a great job breaking it down over here.]

To make way for the new additions Crew SC didn't have to give up much in the way of bodies. Adam Bedell was traded to Orlando City for a 2nd round college draft pick and Kalen Ryden was cut to get the franchise at 28 on the roster (MLS max).

The North American transfer window is now shut which means MLS rosters are locked in for the MLS Cup run later this November. Lots of changes to the Crew SC roster should leave fans satisfied but also wondering why so many changes had to be made at this point in the season after such a historic run the 2nd half of last season (and why so much more money has to be spent).

Time has the answer. For now, we'll have to see how this re-made lineup takes on the next few weeks. A trip to Colorado is on tap for the team this weekend followed by a handful of games against tough opponents in NYCFC, Sporting KC and FC Dallas.

Wednesday, August 5, 2015

Metropolitan Division: The Carolina Hurricanes

Carolina Hurricanes head coach Bill Peters
This is a series previewing the 2015-16 Metropolitan Division of the NHL. Up first are the Carolina Hurricanes.

With their dismal 2014-15 season (30-41-11, 8th in the division) squarely in the rear-view mirror, the Carolina Hurricanes are hoping for a return to the playoffs for the first time since 2009.

They did not make many offseason changes, but their biggest move was buying-out the final three years of forward Alexander Semin's contract. Semin put up woeful numbers last season, going 6-13-19 in 57 games and part of the general ennui surrounding the Hurricanes' offense.

They are now hoping for a bounce-back year from forward Jeff Skinner (18-13-31 in 77 games) and increased production from Eric and Jordan Staal. Elias Lindholm had 17 goals last season and the team is looking for more out of the 5th overall 2013 draft pick.

Carolina's defense could see a major boost this season with the addition of 2015 draft pick Noah Hanifin, selected 5th overall. They're hoping that 2014 7th overall draft pick Haydn Fleury can compete for a spot on the team and contribute. They also have Justin Faulk (2014 U.S. Olympian) shoring up their defense.

They acquired veteran defenseman James Wisniewski from the Anaheim Ducks for goaltender Anton Khudobin, and should see some power-play goals out of the defender.

Carolina Hurricanes 2015 5th overall draft pick Noah Hanifin
meets head coach Bill Peters on the draft floor.


With the departure of Khudobin to the west coast, longtime Hurricanes' goalie Cam Ward will see competition from Eddie Lack, acquired on draft day from the Vancouver Canucks. Ward had a 22-24-5 record with a 2.40 GAA and .910 save percentage in 2014-15. Lack, nicknamed "The Stork", went 18-13-4 for the Canucks last season, with a 2.45 GAA and .921 save percentage.

"They know what I expect out of them, how I operate, how I run the bench and what I expect out of them on a daily basis," head coach Bill Peters told NHL.com. "With the additions and deletions in our program, we're going to get a group that we're proud of every day. They're going to know how we expect to play every day."

In the ever-tougher Metropolitan Division, Carolina hopes to do better than their last place result from one season ago. Will they be able to right the ship enough to return to the playoffs? It's a far-reaching goal, and one that could very well be a few years away.

Tuesday, August 4, 2015

McInerney Fills Need (at a cost)


Goals are not cheap. Look anywhere in the world and you see the highest paid players are the one's who are able to fill up the archaic box score with easy to understand stats. Watch out for simple figures like 36 goals in 138 apps today (or any day) as they paint a woefully incomplete picture.

Rumor rumblings last night have made way to facts this morning. Six year MLS player Jack McInerney (23) is indeed on his way to Columbus to inevitably be the first goal scorer off the bench for Crew SC in Gregg Berhalter's current system.

McInerney fills a need for Crew SC but it's one that surely wasn't the most pressing. Finding an upgrade to Aaron Schoenfeld and Adam Bedell who, outside being part players thus far, are redundant between themselves as target guys. McInerney brings a different type of player and isn't a direct sub for Kei Kamara in that he'll be able to work next to him in open play game situations, whereas previously the team was more looking to get a set piece goal with added height.

What Crew SC are getting with McInerney is a more creative, confident and durable player. His Goal + Assist per 90 rate is slightly better than replacement at 0.46 (replacement is around 0.30 to 0.40) for his career but looking at his last three years with both Montreal and Philly it has dropped back to 0.38 (worth noting that those two teams were pretty bad when he was there).

Filling this team need likely comes at a cost higher than expected but, again, this type of player comes at a cost. Looking at the current Crew SC wage bill it appears that one of the "$60k" guys (like Barson or Bedell or George, etc) will be dropping off the 1-20 budget list (1-20 hit the cap) and McInerney and his $334,167 salary will be jumping on (3rd highest on the team but likely prorated rest of this year).

+ $334k Jack McInerney
- $60k Guy
-------------
+ $274k hit to budget (or a Net -$274 to budget number)

Were this the start of the season it would put Columbus at $3.4m base and $3.7m guaranteed. MLS reported budget cap is $3.5m for this year, so the Crew, who are a one of the 14-15 teams that have to live by the Cap, are fairly maxed out unless they make another move with one of their 1-20 players.

LIST OF NEEDS STILL LONG

Columbus is taking on water in defensive positions. Notably at Right and Center Back but there also signs that Michael Parkhust is slowing down. That leaves, basically, Waylon Francis at Left Back as the one to solidly hold down the position for a couple more years. Making matters worse is that there are no replacements to bring in or any young prospect outside Sergio Campbell that the Crew have to try out.

Despite winning 10 points from their last six games the Crew have given up the 3rd most goals in that time (13). Entertaining maybe and strange to be sure but the defense needs to be sorted if they want to do anything worthwhile in the MLS Cup later this year.

Secondary window closes August 6th. Columbus is currently one player over the 28 man limit. It is thought that Kalen Ryden will be cut loose. Ryden had been playing regularly down in Austin before being called back to town this summer.

Monday, August 3, 2015

Projected Points, MLS

Everybody in MLS is sort of jammed up in the middle of the table right now with no one really taking control of the top spot in the race for the Supporters' Shield. There are a few teams that appear to be breaking away though, and one way to better illustrate that is by projecting out year end point totals by using current Points per Game averages (ppg).



Here are the teams in the SS race (as of the date of this post, the table above will update through the rest of the year):

Projected Points: Team (Points per Game)
59 : FC Dallas (1.73 ppg)
58 : DC United (1.71)
58 : Sporting Kansas City (1.70)
58 : Vancouver Whitecaps (1.70)

...these guys are in the hunt
54 : New York Red Bulls
52 : L.A. Galaxy

Last year there were two teams over 60 points (Seattle Sounders - 64 and LA Galaxy - 61). 2013 saw the NY Red Bulls win it with 59 while in 2012 the San Jose Earthquakes won it with 66. I suspect, with less than a third of the season left, that 2015 will see someone in that 60 pt range.

Here is what the last few years have looked like for Columbus Crew SC.

2012 : 56
2013 : 41
2014 : 52
2015 : 46 (projected)

Unless there are injuries with some of the Crew SC goal scorers (Kei Kamara and Ethan Finlay), the team shouldn't have any problems making it into the post season. There are some defensive issues for the team that date back to the departure of Hernan Grana that they need to sort, but it would take a catastrophe for them not to get in.

Sunday, August 2, 2015

A Berhalter Mistake


There are reports out of Orlando that the Columbus Crew SC Head Coach (and Sporting Director) did not address his players after last night's embarrassing 5-2 loss Orlando City Soccer Club. If this is true, then he's made one of the biggest mistakes of his Crew career.

“I will address them on Monday but I have never been more disappointed with this group than we are now,” he said. “The performance was way below MLS standard let alone our own standard.” - Gregg Berhalter (via Columbus Dispatch)

Nothing good comes from avoiding your team after something horrible happens. It either looks like; A) You can't control your emotions and are "saving" your players from your fury... B) Looks like you are conflict averse... C) Feel all the blame lies with you and are not able to face the music like an adult, or... D) Aren't able to gather your thoughts.

If you you've listened to any of the RCiH podcasts over the past year you'll know that we here at Helltown are fairly concerned with Berhalter's workload. Not from a tactical or organizational perspective but from a Management (Leadership) one. Same goes with this result from last night. We've seen some matches this year where players have just dropped into cruise control once down and endured early game goals and goals coming right after half - facts and figures that suggest the team just isn't ready after they are talked to by the coaching staff.

The concern last night is with the man management tactic Berhalter took last night. The absolute wrong time to avoid your players is right after mistakes. When it comes to bad performances or horrible mistakes it's always better to address them right then, there - and move on. If a key person or two are devastated then you work on putting them back together no matter the cost to you. This is being a leader of men. 101 stuff.

You hear coaches say all the team things like "this is in the past and we are moving on." It's a cliche to be certain but one I rarely see coaches actually abide by in reality. By the time tomorrow gets here and he addresses the team (and / or punishes them) it actually is in the past and he is wasting valuable training and preparation time. On top of that, the players will also have moved on emotionally from it and reprimanding them will only piss them off and set the stage for a poisonous environment.

Mistakes will be made over the course of the normally short window most coaches get in MLS. This sort of approach should be worrisome for anyone that wants a team that is challenging for trophies and not lost in the middle of the table (or worse) year after year.


------------------------------------------------
Leadership experience: For the past ten years I've managed a regular full-time staff of 40-60 employees with a group of 10 on my leadership team and 2 in senior floor positions. During peak times my group will grow to over 150 employees across two shifts in a metrics driven manufacturing environment. Of course this isn't "sports" but most of the challenges in leadership are transferable (X's and O's notwithstanding, working on that part though...).

Crew SC embarrassed by new kids Orlando City

The Magic Kingdom wasn't so magical Saturday night for the visitors from Ohio. After posting an early goal to take the lead (Higuain, 5'), they then proceeded to collapse defensively and allowed Orlando City to score five unanswered goals.
Mickey Mouse showing how it's done in Orlando City.


Their defensive form was the worst of Sporting Director/Head Coach Gregg Berhalter's tenure in Columbus. It was so bad, in fact, that Berhalter did not speak to the team post-game. His comments to the press weren't long in the tooth, either.

"I'm disappointed," Berhalter said. "We rolled over and made it easy for Orlando. That's not the type of team we pride ourselves on being. (Saturday night) we were an easy opponent to beat. This time was way below average, not up to MLS standard."

He alluded to changes in the lineup ahead of next week's match versus the Colorado Rapids. What those changes are remain to be seen.

Has Gregg Berhalter run dry of ideas?
My colleague Larry Johnson, posting on Twitter, summed up the 5-2 loss rather succinctly. "At some point, you've got to question effort. Orlando had zero fear of Columbus. #CrewSC need more players that have played in games that matter. Coach treats regular season like exhibition to the press.Now guys play like it."

They may be near the top of the Eastern Conference standings, but their form is more consistent with a team near the middle-to-bottom. More than "tweaks" are called for. Accountability and responsibility have to become hallmarks of the club. This starts at the top. They have allowed 8-goals against in just the last two matches. No matter how you slice it, this is not good.

The coming days will show how much change head coach Gregg Berhalter is willing to enforce. One thing that is certain is that something has to change to get the teams' psyche in the right place.