Saturday, October 8, 2016

Crew SC Projection Follow-up

Back on August 29, I mapped out the remaining schedule for Crew SC. It was the start of a critical time for the team. More than that... it was deadline time. Time to name the baby. Time to turn in that report you were given three extensions on. Time to friggin' wake-up and act like you give a damn.

Berhalter has shown that he doesn't mind sacrificing results in favor of maintaining a team style. What this has resulted in is some record runs of poor results each of his first three seasons. Even last year, when they finished near the top in the East.

That said, I've always felt like pushing the limits of a forgiving MLS competitive format is like trying to start a push lawnmower. When you first get it, one pull and it cranks right up on the recoil. Over time, however, it takes multiple pulls until you tune it back up.

Crew SC never tuned things up and the jumpy LLWWLW results record in the last six reflect that.

Columbus finished on the high side of my projections (3-10 pts in last 6). But, even at max projected points, it wasn't enough to salvage this historically bad year. Max Crew could have earned is 18 pts. They needed at least 15, in my opinion. Why that many? Because the last three are on the road.

Match. Team (venue): Projected Pts... Actual
1. LA (A): 0-1... 0
2. Vancouver (H): 1-3... 0
3. Orlando (A): 0-1... 3
4. New England (H): 1-3... 3
5. DC United (A): 0-1... 0
6. Chicago (H): 1... 3

EXPECTED: 3-10 pts
ACTUAL: 9 pts


Crew finish the season with a Thursday night game in Chicago and then both New York teams on the road in consecutive weeks.

Ending the season at the bottom of the table is hard enough, but it can be worse. If the Crew coaching staff pull and pull on that cord without fixing the problems, they will set the mower on fire.

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