Monday, August 3, 2015

Projected Points, MLS

Everybody in MLS is sort of jammed up in the middle of the table right now with no one really taking control of the top spot in the race for the Supporters' Shield. There are a few teams that appear to be breaking away though, and one way to better illustrate that is by projecting out year end point totals by using current Points per Game averages (ppg).

Here are the teams in the SS race (as of the date of this post, the table above will update through the rest of the year):

Projected Points: Team (Points per Game)
59 : FC Dallas (1.73 ppg)
58 : DC United (1.71)
58 : Sporting Kansas City (1.70)
58 : Vancouver Whitecaps (1.70)

...these guys are in the hunt
54 : New York Red Bulls
52 : L.A. Galaxy

Last year there were two teams over 60 points (Seattle Sounders - 64 and LA Galaxy - 61). 2013 saw the NY Red Bulls win it with 59 while in 2012 the San Jose Earthquakes won it with 66. I suspect, with less than a third of the season left, that 2015 will see someone in that 60 pt range.

Here is what the last few years have looked like for Columbus Crew SC.

2012 : 56
2013 : 41
2014 : 52
2015 : 46 (projected)

Unless there are injuries with some of the Crew SC goal scorers (Kei Kamara and Ethan Finlay), the team shouldn't have any problems making it into the post season. There are some defensive issues for the team that date back to the departure of Hernan Grana that they need to sort, but it would take a catastrophe for them not to get in.

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