Saturday, July 19, 2014

Predictions: Crew Rd 20, MTL at Home

Another one at Crew Stadium tonight. 7:30 PM Eastern kickoff, weather will be mid 70's, partly cloudy and a little damp.

GAME NOTES
CLB: Limited roster availability (injuries, suspensions, a rib being removed)
CLB: Higuain carrying nagging injury, not 100%
CLB: Crew one of only 4 teams with negative home goal diff, only 8 goals in 9.
MTL: Only 5 goals in 8 away this year, zero wins
MTL: Last place team
MTL: Do have 2 wins in last 6, not great but better than Crew

TEN PREDICTIONS
Number on left is percentage accuracy picking 2014 Columbus Crew results only.

58% WHOSCORED.COM ... DRAW
"This one is hard to call, with both teams coming into the game in poor form. It could be case of who isn't the worst on the day." - The Oracle (Graham Ruthven). Has this one ending even.

53% COLUMBUS DISPATCH ... COLUMBUS CREW
A lot of good Crew info in the Dispatch as of late. Gonzalez transfer news, Williams updates, pick up a paper!

47% GOAL.COM ... DRAW (for now)
No preview up yet.

42% MLSSOCCER ... COLUMBUS CREW
4 picks for the Crew this week, remaining 2 are a draw.

42% WIN DRAW WIN ... COLUMBUS CREW
Heavy Crew lean this week, 56% picked to win (12% Montreal). Large Stake is on 2-0 home win.

37% BET365 ... COLUMBUS CREW
Home team surprisingly heavy favorites today (17/20 odds, 12/5 draw, 10/3 Impact).

32% HOME TEAM ... COLUMBUS CREW

21% TABLE POSITION ... COLUMBUS CREW
Gotta be pretty low to be behind 16th place Columbus, but here we are.

--% WV HOOLIGAN ... (no picks)
Drew Epperley stopped predicting games some time ago but that shouldn't stop you from visiting his site.

--% MASSIVE REPORT ... (no pick)
Head over to Massive Report for Patrick Murphy's latest on the Columbus Crew. He's got a fair take on the current situation.

MY PREDICTION
Hard to overstate how limited the Crew are with their roster. Fully fit, this is a mid-table / average team but with Wil Trapp out (suspension), Hector Jimenez (long term injury), Josh Williams (blood clot), Jairo Arrieta (pulled muscle) and Federico Higuain not all the way back (and used in both games in past week already)... this team is in peril.

All that said, there only a couple teams that the Crew could beat in their current shape on one of them is in town today. Montreal is pretty bad this year. Not patient, not defending well, no cohesion. Just a mess, which is why you seen a heavily favored Columbus.

Pretty sure well see the Crew passing around a non-possession oriented Impact relatively easily but I think the only way this one doesn't end as draw is if we see a penalty or some other kind of mistake late in the match.

Sometimes these lower table games can surprise, though. Both teams will feel this is a good chance to get after it. Worried a little about the Crew defending without Trapp back there helping out an out of form Francis and a Chad Barson who can sometimes get beaten off the dibble (re: Marco di Vaio).

Ultimately, I hope it is a wide open game. Crew Stadium attendance is below average this year and I'm sure some of the fans want to see excitement.

No comments: