Wednesday, December 26, 2012

MLS Values via Transfer Markt

Transfer Markt does an nice job in providing player information to the public. Over the past couple years I've found it to be reliable for English and European players but not so much for Major League Soccer.

Things seem to be changing though as stats and info are updated and accurate and player market values now seem reasonable in relationship to the rest of the world. If you are reading this then you have probably at least heard of the site so I'm not going to get much into what it is.

Below, median player market value by team in dollars according to Transfer Markt (the site uses GBP as their benchmark, I have converted to US Dollars at current exchange rate of 1.61). What this is telling us is the general player value by club. Yes, the Crew are last.

MEDIAN VALUE ($) : TEAM : MEDIAN AGE
503,125 : NY : 28
483,000 : SEA : 27
442,750 : MON : 26
402,500 : DCU : 25
382,375 : SKC : 25
362,250 : CHI : 27
362,250 : COL : 26
362,250 : FCD : 25
362,250 : HOU : 26
362,250 : LA : 24
362,250 : VAN : 27
281,750 : GOATS : 25
281,750 : NER : 26
281,750 : PHI : 23
281,750 : RSL : 25
281,750 : SJE : 26
281,750 : TFC : 24
261,625 : PDX : 25
241,500 : CLB : 24

Transfer Markt likes to use 'average' but that is a pretty harsh way to look at things because of the way MLS uses the Designated player rule (handful of players drive up averages). Median in this case would be better. So I made it better. I added median age on the right as a sort of bonus stat. Again, 'average' age can be very misleading. Take the age association with value for what you will.

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Below is how the site values each Crew player.

MARKET VALUE : PLAYER
1,127,000 : Higuaín, Federico
724,500 : Marshall, Chad
644,000 : Arrieta, Jairo
563,500 : Gaven, Eddie
563,500 : Rentería, Emilio
483,000 : Duka, Dilly
483,000 : Mirosevic, Milován

Breaking here for the overall league median of 362,250.

362,250 : Gruenebaum, Andy
362,250 : O'Rourke, Danny
281,750 : Tchani, Tony
241,500 : Añor, Bernardo
201,250 : Finlay, Ethan
201,250 : Gehrig, Eric
201,250 : Meram, Justin +
161,000 : Williams, Josh +
161,000 : George, Kevan
161,000 : Horton, Aaron +
161,000 : Lampson, Matt
161,000 : Speas, Ben +
120,750 : Schoenfeld, Aaron
120,750 : Trapp, Wil

I've added a + to players undervalued, you can draw your own conclusions on the players over valued. Keep in mind though, a lot of value has to do with circumstance, environment and coaching. Example would be Dilly Duka. From what I've seen personally he is better suited as a more central or free roaming player (Mirosevic type) yet used as a winger on the Crew. The franchise also treats him like dirt (stripping playing time, publicly announcing he is available for trade).

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Here are the percentage of players each team has valued less then the league median of 362k:

UNDER MEDIAN : TEAM
63% : PHI
58% : SJE*
57% : CLB
57% : NER
57% : PDX
57% : TFC
54% : GOATS
52% : RSL*
48% : LA*

48% : LEAGUE

48% : COL
46% : SKC*
45% : DCU*
44% : SEA*
39% : VAN*
38% : CHI*
38% : FCD
37% : HOU*
36% : NY*
29% : MON

I've included this last part here to show the general quality of player values. The asterisk is for playoff teams. You see that more valuable players (those valued over the league median) according to Transfer Markt leads to success. Consider it as a sort of numbers gut check.

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