Saturday, November 3, 2012

Crew Player Evaluations, GD p90

The Columbus Crew found themselves on a dead even Zero Goal Difference (GD) for the year. Below are players that drove that number up or down for each 90 minutes on the pitch.

GD p90 : NAME : 90 MIN GMs

+0.90 : Cole Grossman : 5.6
+0.66 : Carlos Mendes : 10.5
+0.38 : Justin Meram : 10.7
+0.32 : Nemanja Vukovic : 12.4
+0.27 : Federico Higuain : 11.2
+0.23 : Emilio Rentería : 17.1
+0.17 : Dilly Duka : 11.9
+0.15 : Josh Williams : 27.0
+0.13 : Julius James : 7.9
+0.12 : Sebastian Miranda : 32.0
+0.11 : Danny O'Rourke : 17.8

This Group I includes the players the Crew should be locking up for next year. Notable here is Nemanja Vukovic and Emilio Renteria. Two players, based on how they were used, that are seen as part-time contributors by the club staff. This metric tells us that they contribute positively (both played enough time to make a statistically significant contribution).

The class of this group comes in the form of Josh Williams and Sebastian Miranda. Considering the amount of time the put in, both these guys should be hardwired into next year's plans.

Helltown Hero, Cole Grossman, is so out of control high it's crazy. I don't care that his Blue Devil bball teams beat up on my Campbell U. Fighting Camels on a regular basis... Grossman's club numbers are impressive... On top of that he contributed exactly as I would expect a Duke grad to; Intelligently and confidently - with a passing hint of smugness. He's my favorite type of player. One that knows how to win on the team level - also, cerebral and able to survive outside the sport.

+0.03 : Andy Gruenebaum : 32.4
+0.00 : Jairo Arrieta : 17.0
-0.03 : Eddie Gaven : 33.2
-0.04 : Milovan Mirosevic : 23.8
-0.06 : Chris Birchall : 16.8

Look at the games these guys racked up. These are the guys that drove the whole of the 2012 season. Consistent performers, but like your Crew toiling their craft at the middle of the table? Pick these guys each match.

-0.14 : Tony Tchani : 14.8
-0.17 : Chad Marshall : 23.8
-0.36 : Shaun Francis : 5.6
-0.37 : Bernardo Anor : 5.5
-0.44 : Eric Gehrig : 9.0
-0.54 : Olman Vargas : 7.4

Group III is the bad group. You don't want your name here if you have significant minutes. Especially if your name is Tony Tchani and Chad Marshall.

Below is going to be the guys that didn't see enough time to matter on an individual level. However, as a group, they matter. Just last week a friend of mine sent me an email detailing winning percentage of players in his pickup basketball league. I dug into it and found an all to familiar fact. Players that don't play much hurt your chances of winning. Meaning, The more players you have getting "spot" duty each year the worse off you will be. Since Robert Warzycha took over his teams seem to be hounded by players that pepper the line up.

+1.41 : Ben Speas : 0.7
+0.00 : Kevan George : 4.7
+0.00 : Matt Lampson : 1.6
-0.30 : Aaron Schoenfeld : 3.3
-1.27 : Ethan Finlay : 4.7
-18.00 : Tommy Heinemann : 0.1

Ethan Finlay was dangerously close to topping that 5 game (450 minute) mark. I saw him play a lot this year and am convinced that he is a good soccer player but the way he was jammed into the lineup early on was a mistake. He is too small to play up top, yet he was put there (he actually suffered injury due to that). Finlay can be best used as a player in training behind Sebastian Miranda at Right Back.

The numbers above are only one way to measure performance, though. With something like GD while on the pitch, look for players with over 10 games (900 minutes). They are the guys that drove results.

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