Saturday, July 7, 2012

Montreal v. Crew Predictions

Columbus travels to Montreal tomorrow to take on le IMPACT! so before we get to predictions let's take a look at game notes:

1. Montreal: Davy Arnaud and Felipe Martins not playing. 6 goals and 8 assists between them.
2. Columbus playing in Montreal for the first time.
3. Crew won 2:0 earlier this year in a poorly played home opener at Crew Stadium.
4. Montreal last 5 at home: LWWLL,
5. 21 goals in last 5 games in Montreal. 10 goals for 11 against (this is a lot of scoring)
6. DDWDL, last 5 Crew away games and only allowed 3 goals in that time.
7. Montreal has most goals from the spot this year (5)

0:0 Draw
Drew Epperley, WV Hooligan
"The Crew are better than most expect them to be but their offense still has some issues." is leaning Crew...
Draw: Greg Lalas
Crew: Jonah Freedman
Crew: Nick Firchau
Crew: Matt Doyle
Draw: Jason Saghini
Crew: Andrew Wiebe is leaning Montreal 5/4 odds... but, to be honest, it looks like a standard line for a soccer match at this level. For what it's worth, the most likely score is 1:1 (5/1 odds).

0:0 Draw, Zac Lee Rigg
"This game may come too soon for new Impact addition Alessandro Nesta but fellow Italian Marco Di Vaio should feature." The fan predictor thingy on this page has Montreal winning 2:1

+2 Crew (or a sloppy draw)
Montreal has proven to be leaky, especially at home (see notes above). I can safely say I've never predicted a 3 goal Crew game before but this might be one. Montreal might press for goals against a stingy Crew team and that would be a tactical mistake. Warzycha will nab two goals and drop into a shell if that's the case.

However, if Columbus decides to mess with the chemistry that has seen them in good form as of late then things might change for the worse. To start Jario Arrieta, Milovan Mirosevic and Chad Marshall means this one might get pulled down to a 1:1 draw with both goals coming from the penalty spot.

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